You Missed A Few …Galagher

 

As in prognostications for 2013.

How So?

“You never mentioned a word about Quebec …was this by design?”

You are correct, I did not mention Quebec this year. I guess I place it much in the category of Ontario …but even worse.  Both have become economic basket cases and in Quebec’s case it goes out of its way to discourage business.

Consider it missed on purpose.

“Galagher, will there be an election in Ontario in 2013 and if so, which Party will win?”

This one was a real omission.  As with Quebec, I try not to think too much about our Province given the way it has been mismanaged over the course of the last 9 years.  But still, I should have dealt with it – so here goes:

Yes there will be an election and I suspect the Tories and Hudak will finally win one.  That said, my preference – as many of you know, was that the current occupant of Queen’s Park had stayed and faced the music…that is to say, that he tried to have deal with the mess that he and he alone created.  The coward though cut and ran.

So probably Hudak but whomever wins – even a re-tread Liberal – my heart goes out to them.

“Will Chief Theresa Spence succumb to her hunger strike?”

No.  Simply stated she and her common law band manager have too much too lose by ending her life prematurely.  Now if the hunger strike was being conducted by one of her subjects – living in squalor on her reserve, my answer would be different.  It is hard to feel compassion with Spence given that she refuses to disclose where all the $millions go that are handed to her and her partner while all the while crying the poors for her Reserve.

And Finally,

“How Much Snow Are We Apt To Get This Winter of 2013?’

So glad you asked…. Lots.

It seems these days that everything comes in the extremes – too hot – too cold – too wet – too snowy – so given the high snowfall in late 2012 – you can expect it to continue throughout the balance of the Winter of 2013. 

As I see it…

‘K.D. Galagher’

 

2013 Predictions…

 

My Goal this year is to do better … much better than my predictions of the year just past.

Thankfully, this should not be too difficult a task.

Finally, before I start, I must apologize for the tardiness of this Blog – once again we have been experiencing internet troubles…

Okay, let’s get going; I will be using a different format from last year:

1.  Canada

• Young Trudeau will win the Grit Leadership…sadly;
• Sandra Pupatello will win the Ontario Grit Leadership …poor dear;
• Harper will continue in earnest to implement his conservative agenda which he finally began in 2012…about time;
• The NDP will win this year’s election in BC …no brainer;
• Native unrest will intensify, especially as it relates to their efforts to derail the construction of oil and gas pipelines. This despite the fact that Oil / Gas is one of the few things that we in Canada have going for us …certainly we no longer can depend on Manufacturing for job creation …  It is going to get very nasty;
• Teacher protests will spread to the entire Public Sector in the face of desperately needed cuts in spending…poor dears;
• Canada will continue to lead the G-7 in economic growth but will still toy with recession…nothing to brag about.

2.  United States

• Will continue its descent into Debt.  By year’s end, the Debt will total well in excess of $17 Trillion which will be well over 100% of its GDP.  (the current debt level of $16 Trillion already totals 104%);
• The Debt Raters will downgrade the US credit rating;
• Interest Rates will rise;
• Gold will continue its march higher in value and will exceed $2k per oz by year end…buy gold;
• Oil however will not rise from current levels – $85-$90 per barrel, due to eco decline / slack demand …stay clear of oil companies;
• The Fed will continue with its disastrous policy of ‘Quantitative Easing’ which is simply a fancy term for the massive printing of money with nothing to support to it.  This has the affect of devaluing hard earned savings and pensions…steer clear of bank savings accounts;
• Civil unrest, so evident in Europe, will spread to the States when the current occupant of the White House finally forced to take some timid steps to reel in spending.

3.  Iran

• I have predicted in each of the last 2 or 3 years that either Israel or the US would finally take steps to wipe out Iran’s nuclear capability…it hasn’t happened, so I am not going to make the same prediction this year.
• I will simply say, as I have in the past, that the Iran Nuclear Issue is by far and wide, the major issue facing the World and if Iran is allowed to deploy nuclear weapons – we are all in great do do – Israel, the West, the Middle East – and yes, even ordinary Iranians and I will hold the current occupant of the White House responsible.

3.  Europe

• Will endure business as usual; that is to say, it will descend once again into recession, civil unrest will continue to disrupt life in many of its member states;
• Debts will fester;
• The EU will be fortunate to hold together albeit it is likely to do so for at least this year.  Should its problems continue into 2014 the unity of the Union will be very much in doubt.

4.  Afghanistan

• The Taliban will continue to retake the country this coming year as NATO forces proceed with their pull-out…pity the poor female members of their society…maybe the West should relocate them all before the final pull-out?

5.   Syria

• Many are predicting a long stand off with Assad – extending over several years.  I don’t – he will be gone by year’s end and most likely within the next 5 to 6 months.  Russia will likely broker a deal for his relocation if the locals don’t get him first.

6.  The Middle East

• Will continue to descend more and more into an Islamic Winter. 
• Al Qaeda will be more brazen there as well as throughout North Africa.

7.   Russia

• Putin will continue to impose his ‘one man rule’ i.e. dictatorship on his far flung country…its economy will suffer accordingly. 

8.    China

• Will continue to outperform the West but at reduced levels given the abysmal state of European and US markets.

That’s it.  If you believe I have missed anything of significance, please let me know and I will address it. 

The bottom-line here is that year 2013 is all about economics and how we in the West are in for a very rough ride and we sink under a mountain of debt.  On the positive side, wars involving the West, will diminish which is just a well for the cynical reason that we simply cannot afford them …especially the United States but that will likely be a leading story for 2014.

With this, I am going to return to my book writing and with it …reduced Blogging.

I hope 2013 is good to each and everyone one of you.

As I see it…

‘K.D. Galagher’

 

A Double Entendre…

 

Idle No More …of course.

Before I get to predicting events for 2013, I cannot resist working in this one Blog about what is going on re our Natives – as per above, and in particular, the current hunger strike by Theresa Spence.

Spence:

– the Chief of Northern Ontario’s Attawapiskat First Nations.

- the one whose common law husband Manages the Reserve.

- the one who refused to open the Reserve’s Books to show how nearly $100 million had been spent over the last five (5) years.

- the one who refused a Government of Canada Manager / Auditor admission to the Reserve to get a handle on the apparent mismanagement.

Each year, the Feds ($18 m) and the Province of Ontario ($4.5 million) give approx. $22.5 million to Chief Spence to run her reserve.

That is roughly $16,500 per every man, woman and child.  That’s $66,000 per family of four (4).

Where does that money go? 

Who knows.

The Band also receives substantial revenues from mining interests in the area.

Where does that money go?

Who knows.

So here we have a secretive Chief and her bosom buddy Common Law Band Manager, overseeing millions and millions of dollars yearly, without being accountable to the Feds, to the Province, to the Canadian Taxpayer and not least, to her own poverty stricken band members.

You have to feel sorry for dear Chief Spence.

And, after not allowing Federal Management in to manage the disaster known as Attawapiskat, Chief Spence has the nerve to Blackmail Prime Minister Harper by going on a hunger strike to force a meeting with him.

Now That’s Chutzpah.

If I was the Prime Minister I would most certainly not meet with the dear woman.

She has offered in his stead, to meet with the Governor General and if the Gov Gen was so disposed, I would allow for that.  His is but a ceremonial role most of the time anyway.

The Gov Gen could spend a little time with the Chief passing the pipe and, if nothing else, it would make for a nice photo op.

Moreover from my perspective, Chief Spence is most unlikely to carry this hunger strike to the bitter end.  Simply stated, unlike her subjects up north, she has too much to lose.  She and her common law husband are living like royalty and she is not likely to give that life style up so cavalierly.

So there is Harper’s out, send in the Governor General.

Canada is in for a very difficult time with the activists natives and we need to send a strong message that their disruptive and often illegal antics will no longer be tolerated.

In that regard, we might just as well lbegin with Chief Spence … close down her Reserve and provide her members with some hope at last. 

As I see it…

‘K.D. Galagher’

 

  

 

It Is Time For Me To Eat…

 

Humble Pie…

To be more precise…my predictions for 2012.

To sum it up…I stunk the place out.

Last year, I broke my predictions down into five (5) separate headings beginning with what I consider to be my forte – ‘Politics’.

In that regard, I was 10 for 10 – all wrong – each and everyone.

I will summarize the section;

• The Republicans would beat Obama hands down in the November Presidential Election;
• Putin and David Cameron would be forced out of office;
• Bob Rae would become the permanent Liberal Leader, the Wild Rose would win in Alberta and Mulcair would fail in his bid to lead the NDP.
• North Korea would become more friendly and Pakistan would be taken over by its military.

Wrong, Wrong, Wrong !!

What can I say, …I will try harder (safer) for 2013.

I did a little better in the other four categories which I personally consider to be of lesser importance – not in their substance, but in ease of predicting.

Category 2 (Government) … I was 2 out of 3.

• governments of the West (Europe) will continue to slash their spending, even here in Canada.  It would not happen in the United States given it was an Election Year.

Not bad – all in all.

Category 3 (Civil Discourse)…again I rated 2 out of 3.

• riots to continue throughout Europe with some in Canada (e.g. the teachers protest);
• muted riots in the US – (which did not come about in any size).

Category 4 (Economy) …6 out of 7.

• Canada’s economy would continue to outpace the G-7 and our dollar would end higher than its US counterpart;
• Interest rates would stand pat, gold would continue to outperform;
• China’s role would diminish somewhat;
• The West was on the verge of financial collapse but would muddle through one more year;
• Where I was wrong was with respect to Oil continuing to cost over $100 per barrel.  It did not – rather it traded in the $85 to $90 range.

Category 5 (Foreign Affairs) …1 out of 2

• The Islamists will entrench themselves in power in the middle east and the Arab Spring would turn to the Arab Winter;
• Where I was wrong is that I predicted Iran “would meet its comeuppance” in 2012.  It did not.  2013?

So not too bad in categories 2 to 5 but that did not make up for my totalling blowing category 1.

Mark me a D.

My next Blog will include my predictions for 2013 and then I will get back to writing my book for which I have been procrastinating.

First let me do a bit of a dry run:

• those of us who survive to the end of 2013 will all have birthdays in the coming year;
• the liberal party of ontario will elect a new leader;
• Stephen Harper will continue to get bad press;
• Mike Harris will no longer be blamed for the ills of Ontario;
• George Bush will no longer be blamed for the ills of America.

As you can see, My Resolution for 2013, is to get 10 for 10 under the Politics Heading next year.

As I see it…

‘K.D. Galagher’ 

 

A Report ….

 

On the four (4) Politicians who most affect us here in our Nation’s Capital – Ottawa.

I will deal with the first two (2) together – first:

• The head occupants of the White House and Queen’s Park, whom I name, Hock and Spit.

Enough said.

The next is our City’s Mayor – Jim Watson.

• Although he is a Liberal, I have slowly become one of his fan’s – he has restored dignity to the Mayor’s Office and, not only that, he has been able to get worthwhile things done.  If he keeps this up, I can see myself voting for him in the next municipal election.  High Praise.

And finally, our Prime Minister, Stephen Harper.

• Simply stated, Mr. Harper is the best Prime Minister I can recall in my lifetime and that dates back to the 1950s and to Louis St. Laurent.
• I am once again proud to be a Canadian.
• That is not to say he would be my first choice to have a beer with – indeed, between he and the the two opposition leaders, I would probably rate Harper last in that category.
• But the guy is a thinker and a doer, he gets things done; in addition, he is not a crook but is a good family man. 
• We are fortunate to have him in office and when he is gone, he will be missed, even by many who now are quick to disparage him.

As I see it…

‘K.D. Galagher’

 

Don’t Worry … Be Happy

 

According to the United Nations’ World Happiness Report for 2012 the following nations placed in the top eleven:

1.  Denmark; 2. Finland; 3. Norway; 4. The Netherlands; 5. Canada; 6. Switzerland; 7. Sweden; 8. New Zealand; 9. Australia; 10. Ireland, and 11. USA.

Togo finished dead last.

With all the criticism surrounding the UN, maybe with this, it is on to something.

We in the West tend to focus on the annual GDP Rate – the nation’s Gross Domestic Product.  Two Quarters of negative GDP Growth signifies Recession; Three Quarters, a Depression.

Maybe – just maybe, we have been looking at the wrong indicator.

To me, what really matters in one’s life is whether you have your fair share of Happiness.

Your Goal should probably be to sustain happiness in the ups and downs of the GDP;  that is what I believe to be really important. 

But many appear to have lost their way. They tend  to be after The Big Car, The Big House, the Big Job …the Big (insert whatever you will).  While what is really important in life is Not Things but rather, Family, Friends and Health.

Many articles in the media of late, point to the 1950s and 60s as the time when this trend started to take root.  In particular, Women started to leave the home and join the workforce. Families found that financial success required both parents to work and the family unit began to unravel. In the decades since then, this trend has only increased.

And along with that, each successive generation is working harder and longer than the one before it. Workers in the private sector often now work 10 or more hours per day and added to that are atrocious commuting times.  Their children are the hidden casualties of this growing trend.

Workers themselves are burning out – depression and anxiety are running rampant.

As mentioned in earlier Blogs, faced with this, a very large segment of Society has opted out of today’s workforce. They would rather try to survive on subsistence welfare than participate in today’s economy. 

It was not that many years ago when talk of a ‘3 day work week’ made the rounds.  Now people are lucky to hold it to 6 days per week.  And retirement is being put off – often indefinitely.

We as a Society need to take control of this and the UN’s Happiness Index is probably as good a place to start as any.

If we were to give up Things and focused on what is truly of importance – we would all need less – considerably less.  No one should be expected to work longer than 8 hours per day, 40 hours per week and retirement should come no longer than after 30 years of work.  Indeed, I can envisage the  3 day work week plan and retirement 55 being ‘dusted off’ and eventually implemented.

That is not to say any of this would be mandatory – if people want to work longer – that of course would be their privilege to do so – and hopefully they would find their own happiness in so doing.

But the norm would be as I have noted above.

It would include a return to more families having a stay at home parent and indeed this is happening much more than one would think.  People are more and more prepared to give up Things – for other people and along the way – they themselves greatly benefit.  For instance, a greater number of parents are educating their children at home.

And given the equality of the sexes this thankfully means that the stay at home parent can be either the father or the mother without any stigma attached.

“Galagher, have you gone Communist on us?”

Not in the least – I will always believe that Capitalism is the best economic system available and I am confident that it will continue to function quite well within these parameters.

The GDP numbers may not be so awesome but I would leave that to the economists to worry about. Let them suffer anxiety if they wish.

I grant that this Blog may seem to you a little unusual given that it is Christmas Day 2012 but dear reader, the fact that it is Christmas sparked me to write it.

2000 years ago a baby was born to us in a manger with hay for a bed.  He came in to nothing and he went out with nothing and yet throughout his young life here on earth he focused and made us focus on what was and continues to be of true importance.

As I see it…

‘K.D. Galagher’ 

 

AND THERE THEY GO… ONCE AGAIN,

 

The Superior Courts of Canada that is.

Three…now make that four, more Recent Wrong Decisions amply attest to that.  The first has been well publicized:

1.  The Niqab caper -

The Supreme Court of Canada ruled yesterday that in some circumstances, a muslim woman can keep her Niquab on while giving testimony against an accused in Criminal Court. It will be left to the lower courts to determine what those ‘circumstances’ might be.

We all know that it is a fundamental Rule of Law that an accused can face his or her accusers.  With this decision, the Court has opened the door to changing this fundamental right to read the right to confront a ‘covered face’.

The 2 Justices on the right of the Court not surprisingly believed correctly, that the accuser’s face needs be uncovered while giving testimony while left wing Justice, Rosalie Abella, not surprisingly sees nothing at all wrong with a Niqab clad witness – i.e. only her eyes are exposed – assuming they are female eyes that is – whose to know. I digress.

But what were the other 6 Jurists thinking?

Moreover, in such proceedings, the accused is to have the same rights as the accuser, so how long will it be before an accused comes to court ‘masked’.  I can here it now – “witness, can you pick out the accused in the body of this court?”  Dah.

I have nothing against the Niqab per se – I see women who wear it as being mere subjects of their male overseers – but that is their right to be stupid.  We are after all a free society – albeit less so as time goes on.

If they want to wear a Niqab on the beach or on the street or when shopping – please do.  But if they are driving, or getting government picture id docs – then no – take the Niqab off.  And that pertains to Legal Proceedings as well.  Cases are often resolved by lawyers / judges being able to ‘read’ faces – the Niqab simply stated prevents that from happening.

2.  Christine Blatchford wrote an interesting column yesterday concerning a court case that has been in the works for nearly 20 years.

It pertains to the right of native fishers to harvest salmon out of season for ‘Food, Social and Ceremonial’ purposes only.  You will notice the concept of ‘commercial’ is missing. 

A group of non native fishers has been fighting this discrimination on the basis that an estimated 90% of the native fishers’ catch is sold commercially. This not only competes unfairly with the professional fishery but it seriously jeopardizes the sustainability of the stock.

For those who live back several hundred years and are still grieving about the hard done natives I sympathize with their feelings even though I believe they are misguided.  That said, if our Society wants to continue to gnash its teeth regarding our ancestors’ historic wrongs – I suggest that laws be passed giving natives the right to do whatever they like – hunt, fish, pollute – whatever and whenever they wish as long as it is contained within their own reserves (i.e. not on crown land). 

But while we pretend one thing –that natives cannot run a commercial fishery outside of season and then condone just that, it only leads to contempt for the law as it exists and increases resentment between natives and non natives.

So what does this have to do with the Supreme Court of Canada – you ask?

On Thursday of this week, the SCC threw out this decades old action with just the following three words – ‘Dismissed without costs’.

-and, to round out the triumvirate;

3.  One of our distinguished citizens was caught in the United States transporting some 119 kilograms of cocaine.  America, as you know, frowns upon this type of activity and quickly sentenced the poor chap to 10 years in jail (as an aside, had he kept his car on this side of the border, he might have got off with 2 years less a day, likely spent in house arrest but that is mere speculation on my part.)

The fact is though, he got sentenced to 10 years in an American slammer and immediately applied to Canada for a transfer back to serve out his sentence here.

Public Service Minister, Vic Toews, of whom I am not an ardent admirer, rightfully, in my opinion, turned down the poor chap’s application.

Enters the Federal Court of Canada which just ruled that Toews has but 45 days to reverse his decision and okay the transfer.  The Court went on to classify Toews original decision as being ‘closed minded’.

It went on to note that ‘clear evidence existed which supported the transfer’.

I can just imagine what the ‘clear evidence’ might have been composed of – e.g. that he had cleaned up his life, had married, fathered a few kids, got a regular job and goes to church regularly.

Oh Yeah – I forgot, the guy has been in jail since his conviction.  So what dear reader what would entail ‘clear evidence’ in that circumstance?

We elect Governments to do our bidding and part of that is to keep society safe.  Toews from my perspective, was doing just that in denying re-entry.  The Court, in contrast, was stepping on turf where it has no business. 

and this one just in…

4. The Supreme Court of Canada just ruled in a case involving Prosecutors possibly ‘vetting’ juror selections, that “it was not serious enough to quash …conviction(s)’. (There were a number of other similar cases awaiting the Court’s decision.)

We all know that Justice must not only be done – it must also appear to be done, and in this case(s) it would be most difficult to say the second condition has been satisfied.

You can imagine if you were the defendant and attempted in any way to influence who would be on or not on your jury – you would be charged with contempt and likely jailed in the process.

So as for me, this all adds up to the Superior Courts going 0 for 4.

As I see it …

‘K.D. Galagher’