It's Deja Vu ... All Over Again

Harper is in full retreat on his promise to raise the age for Old Age Security from 65 to 67.

In that respect, it reminds one of Mulroney's retreat on attempting to de-index this self same pension in 1985.

Another example of government not being run like a business.

A Radio Commentator said today that the real issue here was not the saving of money, but rather, it was all about when should we retire. Not surprisingly, given that the radio host was well into his 70s, he believed people should work as long as possible and most certainly should not be retiring in their 50s or early to mid 60s.

I do not agree. Rather I think retirement is a personal decision and if you like what you do, and are able to do what you do, then work to 100 if you want. But for the vast majority of us, having worked 35+ years, I believe we have fully earned retirement. Life is too short to continue work, just for the sake of working and for continuing to pay into the government coffers.

I also disagree with him stating that the real issue here revolves around when to retire. It is part of the issue facing western societies - but only part.

Many of you will no doubt have heard the python and the pig analogy whereby the python is Sate Spending and the pig is the mass of us Boomers heading down to our eventual demise.

We all have seen the stats - Boomers will triple the ranks of Seniors, before the end of their time, while less and less workers will be out there working to provide for them.

Even while we worked in great numbers and paid high taxes, ui, cpp etc., States still managed to rack up astounding debt and deficits. These liabilities are so high that our children and grandchildren will be left after we're dead, paying our bills.

The overriding issue then is Government Expenditure - it cannot be sustained at current levels. But more to the point, it cannot rise in unison with the spectacular rise in the number of 65+ Boomers. Health care currently represents nearly half of government expenditure and is increasing at the rate of 6% a year. And don't forget a significant portion of that 50% is borrowed. And just think how much of an increase will be needed by the aging boomers as their health deteriorates over time. If left unchecked, governments will be paying everything and more they can get their hands on, just to pay for our health care.

And then you have the pensions - cpp, oas, gains, disability etc - they too will skyrocket.

Now back to Harper's backtrack.

So if 67 is too high - what is the correct number; 65, 63, 59?

Again I believe if a person has worked 35+ years, he or she has done their bit and are entitled to retirement. If they can afford to retire younger or if they wish to work well beyond that timeframe - more power to them.

I have been retired now for several years after having worked over 35 years and I tell people that retirement is the best job I ever had.

So if we are to preserve a well earned retirement, we'll have to consider all government expenditure, as a whole, and determine what we can live without. This, in the end, will result in severe and deep cuts. But without them, the roof will indeed fall in on all our respective heads. One need look no further than what is currently happening in Europe and bear in mind that their Boomers are the same age as ours so things will likely only get worse for them too. Do we have the stomach to do what is needed? Not likely.

And in this respect, the antics of the NDP and Liberals this week are simply deplorable. I am not surprised by the NDP stance since their thinking is so far out and off putting, but I had hoped better for the Liberals. This Party is claiming renewal - they will do things differently - they will be responsible and so on - but in the end, it is the same old thing. Rae and Co. know full well that the status quo in government spending is not sustainable - so what do they do - they scare the hell out of our seniors the first time the Government attempts to start to get our finances in order. (i.e. Harper made it quite clear that current Seniors and near Seniors would not be affected by the age amendment).

This was totally irresponsible and does not bode well for future attempts by any Government to do what needs to be done.

As I see it...

'K.D. Bell" p.s. that's it for a while, I am working on a book about investing - well sort of a book on investing, and that among many other things is taking up much of my time of late. KDB

I Have Been Wrong Before...

And Will No Doubt Be Wrong Again.

And speaking of being wrong, I think I may have blown it in an earlier Blog when I dissed the Wall Street Sit-ins.

I labelled them ne'er do wells who would have no effect on the American psyche.

I still think of them as ne'er do wells, but I must admit, they have had an affect on average American thinking. Possibly an affect even greater than that of the Tea Partyers.

For me, this is a major admission.

But dear reader, as many of you can guess, I do not view their supposed "affect" to be a good thing - quite the opposite.

It all starts with Obama and ends with Romney. Obama came into the Presidential Race of 2008 promising to do politics differently; he was going to seek out consensus - work with all americans and consider the views of Democrats and Republicans alike. His new way of doing politics lasted right up until inauguration day in January of 2009.

From then on - he was always right and anyone who dared oppose him, wrong. It was always someone else's fault - George W. Bush, (or anyone having a kind word for Geo. W.), the Bankers, the Car Manufacturers, Big Business generally, the Republicans, the Tea Partyers etc., all became targets of his pettiness and mean-spiritedness. So much for politics anew.

By the time of the 2010 Congressional Elections - Obama's blame the other guy approach was wearing thin and the Republicans advanced mightily.

But then came the Wall Street Occupiers and their dumb campaign to blame the richest 1% for all that ails America.

You know their line - this 1% admittedly controls lots of America's riches but they fail to point out that the 1% also pays the lion's share of the nation's taxes. But the Wall Street Occupiers are never ones to let a fact like that get in their way.

And they will not be happy until everyone is the same boat economically. This, despite the fact that Marx and Engels, tried to do that on a large scale and failed miserably. Plus even under communism - there were the haves and have nots - the Communist Elite fitting nicely into the first grouping.

And don't forget the Iron Lady's warning that Socialism is a great system until the folks run out of other people's money to spend.

Simply stated, the problem with the Occupiers' theory comes down to a number and that number is their own - 1%. There just are not enough rich to satisfy the remainder.

But boy, did this way of thinking come just at the right time for dear old Obama. His 'blame the other guy' having apparently lived out its usefulness, was granted new life; he now had an even better target - the rich one per centers. And he has been using it most effectively as his rise in the polls can attest. Props, like Warren Buffet and his Secretary are frequently paraded out to bring home the message that the rich are not paying their fair share and the remaining 99% are suffering miserably for it. And maybe the 1% is not paying its full share in taxes but presumably those in the 70/80/90 per centiles are not paying their fair share either.

What is known of course, is that nearly 50 % of Americans pay no tax at all and most of that number are in receipt of government payments of one type or another.

What also is known, is that the American debt stands at over $15 Trillion Dollars - a sum too large even to imagine.

And a sum so large that taking even all of their income will do little to reduce that Debt.

What is needed, is a combination of income tax increases along with significant reductions in government spending. Obama has no appetite for the latter and thus focuses exclusively on increasing the taxation on the richest of the rich, a slight of hand trick that could get him back in the White House for a second term. And he has the Wall Street Occupiers to thank for this.

And then there is Romney. In recent debates he is being castigated for being a 1 %er, a money grubbing capitalist. Imagine? These criticisms are coming from his fellow Republicans who up until the Wall Street Occupiers prided themselves in being supporters of a Free Market Economy.

There was a time not long ago when even the poor supported capitalism since they viewed themselves as potential recipients of its bounty. All they had to do was to work hard and they too would be enriched. But sadly, this has changed with the USA having joined the ranks of the Western Society Welfare State.

Capitalism made the USA great. It is why so many of the world's people dream of migrating there. But when you have the leading candidate for the Republican Presidential Nomination being pilloried for being a 1%, you know things are changing dramatically.

That the Republicans will come to their senses, I have no doubt and that Mitt Romney will in the end prevail I have faith in that too. But the mere fact that the masses can be so readily manipulated by such a few rag tagged anarchists is simply unbelievably scary.

As I see it.....

'K.D. Bell'

Ottawa Police Chiel Vern White...

Has Gone To Heaven .... as in Canadian Senate Heaven.

But first, a few did encourage me to keep writing my Blogs and ever since my hiatus, have asked me to reconsider.

So, in honour of them, I will bang out a few this week starting with Chief White.

Chief White came to Ottawa relatively recently and was viewed by most as an exceptional Police Chief despite his inability to speak French. I though lost much respect for the guy when several of his officers arrested a young lady for merely asking them why they stopped her and asked her her name. She was taken to the City cells where she was subdued and strip of her clothing by a male cop. Bear in mind the jail film shows that she was not resisting arrest. So what gives?

White came out initially saying that such action on the part of his force "would not be tolerated". A day or two later after the Cop Union got to him, White back tracked like a scared politician and began to give weak knee reasons for the assault upon this young woman. White had lost me as a fan.

In the recent Senate Appointments, gold olde Vern White was among their number. You know my view of the Canadian Senate - it is an anachronism, it is undemocratic and a monumental waste of Canadian Tax Dollars. If offered such a position myself I would tell the dear Prime Minister in as gentle of language possible to shove it.

Thankfully, most Senatorial Appointments are from the ranks of political hacks, flacks and ne'er-do-wells. And this strangely is a good thing since there is no point appointing good productive people to such a worthless institution.

Some uninformed people say that Senators do good work - and I will concede that a few - very few, do. But put yourself in the position of an MP who has to go to the people for his authority. Do you think that that MP has much use for a non-elected Senate appointee. You guessed it, in the majority of cases they hold the Senate / Senators in contempt.

So how does Chief White fare in all of this. If, as many of his fans proclaim the guy is a good top cop, appointing him to the Senate only compounds the damage done to Canadian Society. Ne er-do-wells are not missed - good cops are. Another sterling example of this is the Senate appointment of Dr. Wilbur Keon. The good this guy has done in the field of heart surgery and research is immeasurable. To have a chap like him languish in an unelected Senate is simply unconscionable.

Or maybe, given White's apparent ability to so readily jettison his principles he is just the kind of guy the Senate is looking for.

Either way, we need to get rid of the Senate as soon as possible and in the meantime continue to fill it with dead-wood to ameliorate the damage to Society.

As I see it...

"K. D. Bell"

I Need Your Help...

Dated Sat. January 7, 2012: The results are in - from here on in - just call me a 'Compassionate Libertarian' G.


But First -

Only a few contacted me to encourage me to continue with my regular Blogging.

Ergo, I will now move to infrequent writing.

But before I 'write off into the sunset'... I need your help.

From the outset, I have felt rather smug in my Libertarian Cloak - even most recently poking fun at the names of the three major parties in Canada - ie that their names do not reflect their true identities.

So in that context, I did some more research in regard to the word 'Libertarian' and here is what I discovered.

Wikipedia defines a Libertarian generally as one that considers "liberty (t0 be) the moral principle of Society. In the broadest sense (it) advocates strict limits to government activity and sharing the goal of maximizing individual liberty and political freedom".

If my research had ended there - I would have continued to remain smug....however...

Further reading found that there is a broad spectrum to be found under the Libertarian Umbrella ranging from out and out Anarchists, including those who would have the poor and disadvantaged fend for themselves, to economic philosophers such as Libertarian Guru Milton Friedman who called for a negative income tax - otherwise known as a guaranteed income for those without.

No wonder then when I mention to some folks that I am a Libertarian, they physically recoil.

For me, I believe that I am a Libertarian as described in Wikipedia. I am also a firm believer that the poor and the poor disabled are in need of society's financial assistance.

So how do I describe myself? A Conscience Libertarian?

Here then is where I need your help.

I would welcome your ideas of what to name Libertarians without including the weird and wacky.

In the meantime, I might find myself joining the New Liberal Party which is currently under development.

Articles today by two of its candidates for Party President - one the ubiquitous Sheila Copps - call for their New Party to use modern media - face book, tweeting and the like to tap into the 'grass roots' of society. It would be "bottom up democracy" rather than the top down models we have endured for far too long.

And this you will recall, is exactly what I called for in my recent Blog.

The problem of course is that with Power - it corrupts absolutely and given that, it is difficult for the leadership of any party to share power - even with the 'grass roots'. The Reform Party is the most recent example of how principle and practice struggle to co-exist.

So before I am forced to take out a Liberal Membership, I need your help in coming up with a descriptive of 'Libertarian' that best defines me and like minded persons.

As I see it...

'K. D. Bell'

We are in Desparate Need of ...

New Labels for our Political Parties.

But first:

I think I am coming to the end of my prolific phase of doing Blogs. Simply stated, feedback is becoming less and less so I am assuming fewer are reading my Blogs.

I started my Blogging with a main purpose in mind - to provide my children and grandchildren with a view counter to what they were receiving in their schools and by way of the liberal media.

Whether I have been successful in that - I simply do not know.

What I do know though, is that I did my best and my conscience is clear.

I also like to write, I did enjoy the phase.

And I especially liked to write about how things 'have changed since the 1960s'. Nowhere is the change more evident than in the area of religion.

In 1962 a self styled evangelist by the name of Templeton wrote a book entitled The Comfortable Pew. The book savaged the established Church and correctly predicted its coming decline in Society.

We see today that he was a visionary, with half empty churches while Malls are bursting at their seams - particularly on the Sabbath. These Malls have become Society's New Temples of Worship.

Anyway, I have said what I wanted to say in this regard and am now planning to dramatically reduce my production.

But two more immediate topics.

In the first, I want to deal with the nomenclature for our main Political Parties in Canada, to be followed next time with a Blog on what I see Libertarianism to be - for me.

The Names of our Three Main Parties:

Need to be changed since they tell you nothing about the Party itself.

Taking the New Democratic Party first. It certainly no longer is new and to say it is Democratic is to say the obvious in a democratic system. That leaves the word Party which too is in doubt given that it really is Two Parties - one for the Rest of Canada and one for the separatist leaning former Bloc Quecbers.

So 'New Democratic Party' must go.

I suggest it be replaced by the 'Big Union Party in support of Rich and Pampered Employees in both the Public and Private Sectors' (the 'BUPisoRaPEibtPaPS'). Admittedly a mouthful but it much better describes this Party.

And the Liberals. They can and should be renamed to the 'Party that Stands for Anything and Everything that may Lead to Power' (PtSfAaEtmLtP).

And then the Tories. Their name should be changed to the 'Party that Almost Stands for Anything and Everything that may Lead to Power' (PtASfAaEtmLtP).

Let's take debt / deficits as an example.

In the mid 90s the Liberals under PM Chretien / Finance Min Martin - disposed of the massive deficit left them by Conservative Mulroney. Today, Tory Harper has given us the biggest deficit in Canadian History.

All to say, current names Conservative / Progressive Conservative / and Liberal - do not begin to describe what the poor voter is voting for.

Once again we need a new party - like the Reform Party of before but one, unlike the olde Reform Party, that is serious about giving the voter a marked choice.

This, plus the new descriptive names for the 'other three parties', will enable the voter to make an informed decision.

So Galagher - what do you propose we call this new party?

The Grass Roots Platform Party - GRPP.

As I see it ...

'K. D. Galagher'

A Look Ahead To ...2012

Now for some real prognostication.


First: Politics

• Mitt Romney will win the GOP race handily;
• Even if I am wrong about Romney, whomever wins the GOP will go on to beat Obama, America's worst President since Peanut Grower, Jimmie Carter;
• Putin will be forced out of Russian Politics - you heard it here first;
• Bob Rae will be confirmed as the Liberal's Permanent Leader;
• The NDP Leadership race will not be won by Thomas Mulcair despite his sizable lead in the polls (45%). He will be beaten by one of two dark horses - Peggy Nash (16%) or Paul Dewar (5.5%) and my money is on the long shot Dewar;
• With Mulcair's loss, the NDP's slide down in Quebec will quicken with their former supporters going to the Liberals the Bloc and to the Conservatives. The Liberals will be the big winner.
• Alberta must by law go to the polls this Spring. I see the Tories winning by a minority with the Wild Rose becoming the Official Opposition. As polls stand today, the Tories would cruise to an easy Majority - they won't though;
• Great Britain's Tory Government will fall and in the subsequent election, PM Cameron will regain power, this time with a majority;
• North Korea will move closer to detente under its new Leader;
• Pakistan's Government will be taken over - once again, by its Military.

Second: Government

• The Governments of the West will continue to slash and burn as State Debt continues to overwhelm the economy;
• This will continue to be most evident in Europe and even here in Canada, where federal government programs will be dropped / scaled back and high paying government jobs lost - 10 to 15 % of our federal current work force will be gone by this time next year;
• Given it is an Election Year in the United States - there will be much resistance to 'slashing and burning' and besides, Obama does not have the make-up to do what is necessary. Accordingly, most of their cutting will come in 2013 and 2014 under the Republicans and it will assuredly come.

Third: Civil Discourse

• The Civil Discourse (riots) that have plagued Europe will continue and will become even more violent as cuts in their social programs accelerate and more radical elements will involve themselves. Deaths will mount;
• There will be some of this occur in Canada but nothing to scale given that our economy is doing well. Few if any deaths can be expected;
• Civil Discourse in the US will occur but it will be muted given the 'put off' of tough measures into 2013.

Fourth: Economy

• Our economy will continue to outpace the G-8;
• Our dollar will end the year higher than its US counterpart;
• Interest Rates will continue to move sideways;
• Gold, Silver will out perform most other investments.
• Oil will stay consistently above $100 per b. and much higher should my prediction below in regard to Iran come to pass;
• China's role internationally will modestly diminish this year as their exports soften but a rise in its domestic economy will put this country in good stead for the future.
• We enter 2012 on the brink of financial collapse in the West and our collective state debts threaten to overwhelm our respective economies - Canada as well. My guess is that we will muddle through for one more year but the clock is ticking and sooner - rather than later, Governments must get their balance sheets in order. Europe save for Germany has been downgraded, the USA is subject to a negative credit watch - as is our dear Province of Ontario. These things can only be expected to get worse in 2012 but as I said, with a bit of luck we in the West may be able to muddle through for one more year. That's my prediction.

Fifth: Foreign Affairs

• The Islamists will entrench themselves in power in the Middle East putting to rest, once and for all, any thoughts of an Arab Spring. The Dictatorships will be seen as the 'good ole days'.
• Iran will meet its 'comeuppance' most likely at the hand of Israel or perhaps even the USA - but the cat and mouse game that has gone on for the last few years will come to an end. The fact that Obama is in an Election Year and is desperate for voter support will also be a big factor in this.

We, as Canadians, live in the Best Country in the World - we are so very fortunate. We have been given natural riches and resources beyond comprehension and we are possessed of a people who are not afraid of hard work.

We are indeed Blessed - in the coming year and always.

As I see it..

'K. D. Galagher'

A Look Back Over 2011...

In regard to My Predictions For This Year.

But first, did you know that I completed 138 Blogs in 2011? And since the beginning - on July 6, 2009 - I have written 241 of the little devils.

Thought you might find that of interest. I enjoyed every moment.

Now for my prognostications for this year just ending:

Elections -

a) Federal and Ontario Provincial

• I predicted that both Harper and Hudak would win elections this year - Harper with a minority and Hudak with I majority. Wrong on both counts though Harper did win and won by a majority.
• I indicated that the Federal Election would take place this past Spring - which it did. And of note, I had been predicting the Spring 2011 Election Date for the past 2 + years.

correct, +1.5 points wrong, -2 points

b) USA

• I predicted that Mitt Romney would come out of 2011 in the lead for the GOP - and he has. I also predicted that the Tea Party would remain a force in 2011 - which it has.

correct, +2 points

c) Britain

• I said that the Tories would be forced into another Election - I was wrong. wrong, - 1 point

d) Italy

• I predicted that PM Berlusconi would be gone - I was right. correct; 1 point

The Economy

a) USA

• I predicted it would continue to decline due to its horrendous debt - and it has. no brainer - no points

b) Canadian Dollar

• said it would stay above par - and it has not. wrong; -1 point

c) Canadian Economy

• would out perform the US - it did. correct; + 1 point

d) European Contagion

• would continue to spread across Europe and would begin to affect America's ratings - and it has. Plus even our dear Province of Ontario is now on a negative credit watch. correct; + 1 point

e) Interest Rates

• I predicted that 5 year mortgage rates would rise to 5-6%. - wrong - they remained flat; - 1 point

f) Oil

• that it would average $100 a barrel - and it has. correct; + 1 point

g) Gold / Silver / Copper

• that they would reach record levels - and they did albeit are now on a temporary downward trend.

they did reach record levels but are now in decline - no points awarded.

h) China

• will continue to lead the pack - it did no brainer - no points

i) Over Legislation / Regulation

• will begin to slow - it has but remains in its infancy too small to register, no points

j) Number of Civil Servants - salaries

• will begin to reverse - it has but it too remains in its infancy too small to register - no points

k) Social Welfare Programs

• will begin to decline - they have declined big time in Europe and have just begun to decline in North Am. as I did not specify Europe - no points awarded

World Affairs

a) Terrorism will continue with softer targets - it has. correct, but almost a no brainer; +.5 of a point

b) Haiti plus Africa will continue to suffer - they have. no brainer - no points

c) Afghanistan to stalemate - it has. same here - no brainer - no points

d) Iran big story plus no regime change - right on both counts. correct; 1 point

e) North Korea - will continue to be majorly in the news for 2011 - it has been but primarily due to Dear Leader's death which I did not foresee. wrong; 1 point

f) Russia will continue to decline into dictatorship under Putin - it has. no brainer - no points

g) Airport and Border Security will continue to thicken - it has. no brainer - no points

h) Democracies will be upstaged by Communist / Dictatorship Governments - they have not. wrong; - 1 point

i) Immigration Backlash - rise of right wing in Europe to neutralize Muslim effect - it has. no brainer...

j) Persecution against Christians and Jews to accelerate - it has. correct; + 1 point

Generally Speaking

A most difficult year - greater civil unrest - it has been that. all and all 2011 was a most sh..ty year +1 point.

Final Tally: 11 Correct and 7 Wrong. Not So Good.

For Next Year's List, which I will post before Jan, 1, 2012, I will try to do better and I will also try to avoid predicting on the 'no brainers'.

As I see it....

'K.D. Galagher'