GALAGHER'S MONDAY ELECTION PREDICTION

THERE ARE TWO (2) CONTENDERS ...THE CONSERVATIVES AND THE LIBERALS...AND FOUR (4) WANNA-BEES..THE NEW DEMOCRATIC PARTY, THE BLOC, THE PEOPLES PARTY, AND THE GREENS.  IN TRUTH, THE BLOC IS NOT WANNA-BEE PER SE SINCE IT ONLY RUNS CANDIDATES IN QUEBEC BUT MOST CERTAINLY IT QUALIFIES IN THIS SECOND GROUP AS 'SPOILERS'.  

Pizza Parliament Anyone?

In the last election the Liberals won 157 seats, the Tories 121 despite the fact that the Conservatives had a slightly higher per centage of the popular vote.  Majority then (and now) required 170 members. With that bit of history, let's look at where things stand today - both Parties are stuck at 30% + /- so neither will end up getting a Majority Government. 

So Minority Government it will be but for which of these two Parties?

Let's take a walk across the country:

Atlantic Canada - Went overwhelmingly Liberal in the 2019 Election and this time around they will again take the majority but will lose some to the Conservatives.

Quebec - The Bloc won 30 of the Province's 78  Constituencies last time around with 28% of the vote.  This time their voter support is over 30% so look for them to win even more and those wins will be at the expense of the Liberals. The Conservatives will at most hold onto the 10 seats they won in 2019 but no more despite the Quebec Government's endorsement.

Ontario -  We have to consider Ontario and its 121 seats regionally.  First, its urban vote in big centres such as Toronto and Ottawa will remain primarily with the Grits though some inroads especially in Toronto are likely on the NDP's part - so marginally less for the Liberals.  The Rural Areas of the Province will stay with the Conservatives but they are not numerous enough to affect the Election's outcome.  It is the Greater Toronto Area ...the Suburbs in the 905 and 416 area codes which will tell the tale but sadly they are likely to remain Liberal but not by as much as in 2019...so a net loss for them but still a majority of those votes.

Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta - Will remain Tory with some losses possible to the Bernier's People Party but not enough to effect the outcome in those 3 provinces.  And Then, 

British Columbia - Three Parties are viable in Canada's California's West Coast.  The NDP will gain seats here - the Tories will be lucky to keep what they have and the Liberals will be net losers but will still come out with some seats.

So What Does This Come Out As?

A Dog's Breakfast.

But that said, someone must come out a winner ...even temporarily.

And I suspect the Liberals will squeak a Minority Government followed by the Conservatives, the Bloc and the N.D.P.  

The Day After is when things will get very interesting.  Trudeau will drag his feet on calling the new Parliament to Order and will instead feverishly try to fashion a deal with another party to reach the magic 170 vote majority needed to get his new Government's Agenda through Parliament.  Most likely this will see them once again joined at the hip with the NDP as in the last Parliament. This again is all contingent upon the numbers from both Parties totaling at least 170. 

There is another possible outcome - though admittedly less likely - and that is the Conservatives and the Bloc forming an unofficial alliance - again assuming they can control at least a majority of the seats.  Somewhat bizarre I acknowledge but as they say ... Politics Makes Strange Bedfellows.  And don't forget, Tory Leader O'Toole has gone out of his way to placate Quebec even to the point of recognizing it as a Nation unto itself.  So not as strange an outcome as one might otherwise think.

An even lesser possibility would be an agreement between the Conservatives and the NDP since both Parties are now fully entrenched in Progressive Land.  NDP Leader Singh would though have to overcome his Caucus revulsion at cooperating with the hated Tories. But again these are strange times for Canadians. 

So lots of possibilities but what I do know for sure is that whatever arrangement comes about it will not last long - Canada will soon find itself in another General Election and most likely with a whole new set of Leaders since the current lot will all be gone. 

As I See It...

K.D. Galagher

Did You Know That We Have Dangerous Weapons

 CROSSING OUR BORDERS...EVERY DAY

And I am not talking about illegal drugs and handguns...they are a given.

No, in the case at hand, I am speaking of Gravel...as in Pebbles.  Although the Toronto Star, in its finite wisdom, would likely refer to them as Stones...if not Boulders. 

But no, it is puny little gravel that is now deemed criminally to be a weapon. 

And no other than our Politically Tainted Royal Canadian Mounted Police have deemed it so.

On Saturday, police announced Shane Marshall, 25, of St. Thomas, has been charged with one count of assault with a weapon.  And it carries with it a maximum sentence of 10 years in Her Majesty's Slammer.

I did a blog when this recently happened and pointed out the small potatoes this matter really is but did say that should those responsible be found, they should be charged  with simple Assault which seldom carries with it time behind bars.  Over Kill ? 

I do not like these types of antics on the part of protestors anymore than you do but we are after all in the heat of an Election - one needlessly called in the midst of a pandemic and a botched withdrawal from Afghanistan so tempers are apt to fray a bit but it makes you wonder if charges would have been laid if it were rotten tomatoes that were thrown.  Personally, if I was a politician, I'd prefer being hit by the former.

Let me end this short blog with a prediction - soon after the election ...if not even before, the RCMP will drop these charges.  It was done just to placate our prima donna PM. 

As I See It...

K.D. Galagher

I DID NOT WATCH CANADA'S ONE AND ONLY ENGLISH DEBATE...

 DID YOU ?

As an aside, why was it that this one and only debate was held in Canada's one and only unilingual french province...a province which views itself a nation or equal status with Canada?  Would it not have made more sense to hold it somewhere in the middle of the country where those with different time zones got a better shot at viewing it?

Anyway, I did not watch it ...not because it was held in Quebec but rather because there are no true conservative parties running in the current election.  Again, I remind you that my blog is entitled Real Conservatives for the reason that we are becoming more and more scarce.  As Diefenbaker once described Conservatives as being only protected by the Provincial Game Laws.

So to decide who won this one and only english debate I went to the Pundits - those who know all and they proclaimed the in theory Conservative Party Leader Erin O'Toole the big winner and Justin Trudeau the Liberal Party Leader to be the big loser.  Stay tuned they all said and you will see O'Toole's polling numbers skyrocket.

They didn't.  Whereas prior to the Debate the Tories (Conservatives) were 2 to 3 per centage points ahead of the Grits (Liberals) and now ...two days later it has reversed - the Grits lead the Tories by that number.

I go back to my belief that you can never overestimate the intelligence of the voter.  

Regardless of the turn around, Canada will not have a majority government come Election Day on September 20th - rather it will be a minority government - likely for the Liberals but still slightly possible for the Conservatives.  And in any case, the New Democratic Party (NDP) will hold the balance of power like they did in the last Parliament. 

And just to confirm, even though I do not personally have a horse in this race, I want the Conservatives win on the basis of less damage they will cause and most certainly want Trudeau out because of the damage he has caused our country in the 6 years he has been in power.

In fact we voted yesterday afternoon for the Conservative Candidate running in our Riding despite the fact that we have never met her and have never even heard of her before.  She has also ran in my opinion a very lackluster campaign which she is not likely to win but that is how desperate I am to get Trudeau off and onto the unemployment rolls.

Later in the week and as promised I will offer up my firm opinion on what our new government will look like and why.

As I See It...

K.D. Galagher

All That Is Lacking In Truth and Reconciliation Is ...

 THE  'TRUTH'.

Statutes of Canada's Giants of History are falling faster than the Fall Leaves.

Even Sir John A's, without whom there would be no Canada...which some days one may wonder if that would be all that bad.  But if I had to pick only one hero in all of our history it would definitely be Sir John A MacDonald.  

He is accused of being the founder of Residential Schools for Natives even though he had died before they were even legislated into law. 

He practiced law in Kingston, Ontario and Queen's Law School that I attended was named after this City's favourite son.  I even quaffed the odd draft beer at the Princess Street Tap Room which Sir John frequented a few years earlier than I did.  Queen's University, in it infinite wisdom in 2020 stripped His Name from the Law School.  If I was applying to a Law School over again - hopefully I would choose one other than Queen's.  

I got to thinking about this when I read an article in yesterday's National Post by Professor Lynn McDonald entitled 'The historical record vindicates Egerton Ryerson' another Canadian Giant.  Here is what she had to say about Ryerson:

• He lived with Ojibway people and learned to speak their language;
• He assisted them with economic development, sharing his own farming skills (he was a farm boy);
• He actively supported their land claims;
• He promoted the careers of Ojibway leaders;  and,
• He nominated one leader Sacred Feathers to be the superintendent of Indian Affairs West (Ontario). 

His statute was defaced and then torn down by a mob of over 1,000 this past June - His Head was then taken to Caledonia and hoisted on a spike.  Caledonia, as you may remember is occupied by the Six Nations and is where the police have failed to act and despite being ordered to do so by the Courts from time to time.

McDonald ends her article by saying, "If the Indigenous students, staff, and faculty at the university (Ryerson University) knew what Ryerson had done for and with the Ojibway of his time, they could have walked past the statue of him with a smile and a wave, grateful that at least he had supported them when so few others did".

Despite these facts, Ryerson University is in the process of renaming itself and it will be most interesting to see what they will come up with.

How about WOKE U.

As I See It...

K.D. Galagher

Life Can Be Unfair

Recently, a long time friend of ours confided in me that he was 'very angry' with the state of his health...'it was so unfair'.  He, like me, is getting on in life and for the most part has enjoyed very good health.  The last couple of years though have been a challenge for him and with it has come much pain and general discomfort.

I, as you know, have had some serious health challenges too over the course of the last two years and have endured some serious side-effects albeit not as much pain as experienced by our friend.  There is another difference between us...our friend is not a Person of Faith.

Rather than get angry, I have been thankful to God for pulling me through and thank him for the gift of each new day.  I also believe that there is a better place awaiting us after death so death is not to be wished for but neither is it to be feared. 

I would encourage our friend to look to God for help but realize from trying earlier in our friendship that this would not be well received on his part. So rather, I tell him to put his faith in his doctors and hopefully his health troubles will soon pass though I am not so certain they will.  I also Pray for his speedy recovery and tell him so in the knowledge that he will be okay with that ...and in fact will be appreciative even though he will likely find it a waste of time on my part.  I will keep Praying though.

Another example of Life Being Unfair occurred just late last month when the best friend of our granddaughter was killed in a car accident along with her 6 month old unborn baby. The mother was only 27 - far too young to die and certainly in such a violent fashion.  I do not know whether or not she was religious and regardless she could end up in Heaven based upon how she lived her life.  Kristen certainly had many nice things to say about their friendship.  I have asked God to take her safely into his arms.  And, there is no doubt that her unborn baby girl is there now with Jesus and His Mother Mary watching over her.

I guess the Moral to this is that Life Can Be And Often Is Unfair but you do not need to Let It Get You Down.  There is a way forward and it is in each of us if only we open our Hearts to let it out.

As I See It...

K. D.  Bell 

The Conservatives at 34.3 % and the Liberals at 33.1 %

 I can predict the outcome of the Election with just those numbers...A Conservative Minority.

I see a hand up at the back - yes what is your question?

Don't you mean a Liberal Minority Galagher?

How So - well as students of Canadian History know full well - those numbers were the final per centages in Canada's Last Election ...the one in 2019.

So True and I thank you for pointing that out - indeed despite their small % lead the Conservatives took but 121 seats to the Liberal's 157.

So raw numbers can be and often are misleading - as in today's miniscule distance between these two parties.

It often comes down to where your strength is - for the Liberals since Moses climbed the Mount - the Liberals have been strong in the main centres of Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver where the vast number of voters reside.  

Bottom-line - just because the Tories have a lead in the popular vote does not mean that they will win out electorally.  Historically, for a Party to win a majority they would have to secure at least 40% of the vote and neither one is even close to that number. 

I said in an earlier blog that I would predict which Party will win - but can only do it closer to the Election on September 20th when the polls can be expected to harden up. So another 10 days or so to wait.

Speaking of Opinion Polls it reminds me of Brian Mulroney's rise and fall - in 1984 he secured vast majority government with a little over 50% of the popular vote and 211 seats in a parliament that was less numerous in members than today's.  By the time he left politics and turned the reins over to the hapless Kim Campbell he was scoring in the low 20s and poor Kimmy went on to win but 2 lonely seats in the disastrous election campaign for them with but 16% of the vote.  Mulroney had most certainly handed Campbell a Poison Chalice.  

That brings me back to the Present and to realize how fickle an Electorate can be.  How in the world is it possible for someone as bad a Prime Minister as Justin Trudeau to even be in the running at this late date in the Election.  The fact that He is likely to retain his minority simply defies belief.

A favourite saying of mine is Never overestimate the intelligence of the average voter. Given that He is still neck and neck with the Tories I am prepared to modify this to the following - Never overestimate the intelligence of any voter. 

So I will end with another one of my favourite sayings - with the advance polls soon opening  be sure to get out and vote early and vote often.

As I See It...

K.D. Galagher

Throwing Pebbles

 OFF  A  CLIFF.

The Throwing of Pebbles has been in the news muchly over the course of the past couple of days and it reminded me of a little ditty that made the rounds when I was young...it went like this:

      Brothers came home and told their father that they had thrown 'pebbles' off a cliff - the father responded "no harm in that boys"...until this kid came to the door all broken and battered.  You guessed it - his name was Pebbles.

With that, we cast ahead to the present and learn that pebbles a.k.a. bits of gravel were thrown at our distinguished Prime Minister though the Woke Media was quick to turn them into 'Stones' and that they were hurled at a totally defenceless Trudeau by an unruly and totally out of control mob this despite the fact that He was surrounded by a protective wall of Royal Canadian Mounted Police. Those who entered the bus along with Him - reported that he was unfazed by what had occurred and saw it as no big deal.

But the very next day, Trudeau did a 180 and was now in great dungeon about what had occurred the day prior.  Violence has no place in Canadian Election Campaigns.  So what happened in a mere 12 hours or so?  I can just imagine...His Brain Trust in Campaign Headquarters - known as the War Room - seized on this like a Spider on a Fly.  Why they told Him - this is pure gold - we can discredit the Right - once known colloquially as the Conservative Party of Canada. So they wound Him up and out he went and did his drama schtick for which He is so well known.

As for me - Trudeau and His Team and the Progressive Media made a mountain out of a molehill.  That said, Trudeau is correct when he said there is no room for violence on the part of demonstrators.  Anyone doing so should be criminally charged while bearing in mind there is a great deal of difference between the seriousness of tossing pebbles and the hurling of rocks.  And there is nothing wrong in a healthy democracy of having demonstrations take place even when those participating might be angry as hell. You and I may not agree with their point(s) of view and often we do not - but for the sake of everyone they need to be able to voice their concerns. 

One of the great deficiencies in our Democracy has been the Left's Insistence that only they speak on behalf of society.  Any and all opinions are okay as long as they coincide with their own.  It is simply not healthy.

And in closing I continue to think back to His Father who withstood the slings and arrows thrown at him by the FLQ with nary a whine nor complaint. 

As I See It...

K.D. Galagher