And The Winner Is....

Andrea Horwath by a nose.




So say The Three Polls out since the Debate.




Angus Reid - Libs 33%; Tories 34%; and NDP 26%



Leger - Libs 32%; Tories 34% and NDP 29%



Nanos - Libs 37.7%; Tories 34.4% and NDP 25.5%




Average %: Liberals 34.23; PCs 34.13; and NDP 26.83.





Now those same three Pollsters, had pre-debate %'s as follows:




Angus Reid - Libs 32; Tories 36; and NDP 26



Leger - Libs 33; Tories 36; and NDP 26



Nanos - Libs 38.1; Tories 34.7; and NDP 24.3




Average %: Liberals 34.36; PCs 35.54; and NDP 25.43




Ergo dear reader, the NDP was the only Party to increase its support post debate - from 25.43 average to 26.83 average or 1.4%


Both the Liberals and the PCs dropped in their per centages - the Conservatives dropped the most, going from an average of 35.53 to 34.13 or a drop of 1.4%. Which may not seem like much but in this dead head election race, every point counts.


The Liberal drop was minuscule, going from an average of 34.36 prior to the Debate to 34.23 Post Debate, for a drop of only .13%.




What this tells me then is that the NDP won the Debate - the Conservatives lost the Debate and the Liberals were able to hold their own.


You may say with the margins of error etc that is all assumption on your part Galagher, and you'd be correct.


But at least my assumption is based upon something concrete and not just on pundits' analysis of how one candidate moved his hands nervously or another candidate's smile was weird.

Plus to limit the margin of error issue, I have averaged the three polls which should more or less eliminate that problem.


But the implications of these recent polls are telling, even if obvious.

That is to say, if an Election was held today, Ontario would elect an Minority Government, either Liberal or Tory with the NDP holding the balance of power.

But we still have a few days left so change in these numbers is still possible albeit unlikely.

My prediction on numbers - Wednesday night.

As I see it..

'K.D. Galagher'

The Question...

And My Answer.

The Question from a Reader:

Galagher, I would appreciate your thoughts on certain teacher advertisements currently on radio / t.v.

One, has to do with kids, in the Ontario Election, with an anti Tory bent and sponsored by the Ontario Teachers Federation.

The other by the Catholic English Teachers Federation promotes all day kindergarten with a positive Liberal bent.

"What really irks me most ..is the fact that we as taxpayers are paying the teachers' salaries and what makes it worse, we do not even have children in school".

The Reader goes on: "In my opinion, this is a classic job of money laundering as the teachers are using our tax dollars to support a political party".

"Is this correct Galagher"?

"Should Elections Ontario or the Province's A.G. look into this"?

And finally, "It is obvious to me that the current Liberal Government has put the OTF and the CETF up to this to save McGuinty a ton of advertising costs".

My Response:

Dear Reader, I did a Blog on this very subject recently and declared this action, on the part of the Teacher Unions and Public Service Unions generally, to be undemocratic.

But the chances of any body, such as Elections Ontario, looking into this are, I believe, nil.

They will simply argue it is a freedom of speech issue.

Which it certainly is not, given, asyou say, it is Taxpayer money being used to fund their self serving ads.

I have felt this way since the late 60s when legislation was first introduced to have Unions represent Government Employees. And when I say government employees I am not only referring to Teachers but to Bureaucrats Generally, and to Police, Fire, Nurses, Doctors, Armed Forces, NGOs, etc. etc. etc.

I say this because the two parties, in any labour agreement with public workers, are their Union and the Taxpayer. Sadly, one party to those agreements - the Taxpayer, is not at the table.

In theory of course taxpayers are supposed to be represented by their Elected Officials but in practice, those self same Politicians - be they Socialist, Liberal, or Conservative, tend to be more interested in labour peace and will pay for that peace via the Taxpayers' pockets , regardless of cost.

It is no wonder then that our debt and deficits continue to grow while Public Servants continue to reap the best pay, have the best working conditions, while all the time enjoying almost total job security to the envy of the private sector.

An analogy was used recently that stated with every Public Sector wage increase, those public workers are consuming their own limbs since, with each increase, the declining private sector is less and less able to fund their feast.

And dear reader, I do not see anyone voluntarily dealing with this issue. People are happy with their entitlements and Governments are content to keep the peace with their workers regardless of the cost to you know who.

But that said, the issue will most certainly get addressed - since as noted above, the Public Sector will soon run out of limbs, (head and body) too.

And, with incredible Government Debts and with the Western World succumbing to Financial Collapse, I do not think that this time will be long in coming.

As I saw it ...

'K.D. Galagher'

WHO WON TUESDAY NITE'S DEBATE...

To Quote Zhou Enlai, "it is too soon to tell".

Zhou Enlai was the right hand to China's Mao Zedong and in the eyes of many, held more power than his Chinese Leader.

His quote was in response to a question as to whether or not the French Revolution of 1789 was a success or not.

Thankfully, we will not have to wait that long to know who won Tuesday's Debate.

But First; my own impressions.

As a Debate, it was a bit of a bust. I'd rank it 5 out of 10.

I would also rank the three participants as follows: Horwath (7); Hudak (6); and McGuinty (5).

Each though came up a winner in their own must do.

Horwath won on the most likable.

Hudak won since he did better than was expected of him (bearing in mind that the bar had been placed quite low).

McGuinty won in that he had an undefendable record and yet came out of the contest still breathing.

In that, I agree with the majority of commentators that there 'Was No Knock Out Blow'.

But dear reader, the above matters not.

What counts here is did the Debate move the levels of Support.

And we will only know that when the first series of polls come out post debate.

Whether you or I thought so and so won - means zip if the viewer, for whatever reason, decides differently.

And, his or her decision may have nothing to do with what was actually said in the Debate itself. If could also be affected by what the candidates wore, how they appeared psychically ...and so on.

Their views can also be formed as a result of post debate media commentary and bear in mind that much of Canada's media, like that in the US, is left leaning.

The other key factor in all of this is the fact that the main two contenders going into the Debate were in a Dead Heat for Lead - 35% each. It will take little movement on the part of voters to break that open albeit even marginally.

So stay tuned - the polls out this weekend will give you the answer to the lead off question.

As I see it...

'K.D. Galagher'

You Have To See The Irony In Today's Headline..

'Germany must assume Administration of the European Union' !!

Is this not the same country that unleashed two wars in the last century resulting in nearly 100 million deaths in its unsuccessful attempts to gain control of the Continent?

And now, Europe is not only being handed to them, it is being foisted upon them since no other country in the Union has the financial wherewithal to deal with the ever growing financial crisis.

Had Hitler only been patient, he and his Nazis Gang could have had all of Europe without firing a single shot.

Indeed, Hitler's National Socialist Party, in contrast to Communism, was an Industrial Based Dictatorship. That is to say, Industry / Private Property was to be encouraged with a view to its dominating the whole of the European Economy. (Communism of course was based on the non-workable notion that property was to be owned in common by all. At the end of the day, the two styles of government were one and the same since all their citizens became subject to ruthless Dictatorship)

My father, my grandfather, and my great grandfather, all volunteered to fight the Father Land and if they were alive today would no doubt be shaking their heads.

But that's not the only irony.

Today, some 65 years after WWII, Germany is not so keen on assuming this responsibility.

And who can blame them.

Since the fall of the Berlin Wall, West Germany united with the Eastern Part of their country which had been under the control of Russia since the war.

East Germany was a financial basket case in much the same way Greece is today.

But Germany prevailed and successfully restored the financial health of its returned citizens.

But now, it is being asked to do the same with respect to Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy, Ireland and possibly France.

And while the Germans, post war, went about their ways in a prudent and industrious fashion, the countries noted above spent above their abilities' to pay and extended entitlements to ridiculous levels.

The fact is - the Task Today is Too Large for any one country to manage even one as successful as Germany.

Some, or all of these needy countries, are going to have be cut adrift and the whole concept of the European Union revisited.

As I See It...

'Galagher'