A Review of My Predictions for 2016

2016 has been quite a year and as it is about to come to an end, it's time to review my predictions from this past January.

Below you will find the complete text with my comments in bold:

We’ll have some fun doing it since I have sworn off Canada and its inferior governments; just international issues of import for us now.  The same approach for 2017, with no elections forthcoming, things will stay the same for our Canada...in other words 'abysmal'

In no particular order, following are my predictions on a number of international fronts:

1.  Oil will begin to recover over the course of the year’s second half (i.e. up to $50 per bar);  it cannot go much lower and because low oil costs will eventually spur international markets which in turn will increase demand for the black gold;  Good one... oil has risen significantly over this year and currently hovers in the low $50 dollar range. 

2.  Speaking of Gold, it too will recover since the Western World continues to spend far too much – going further and further into debt while at the same time quite enamored with monetary easing – that is to say – the printing of money without a corresponding rise in GDP to support it;  Not as good although the price did go up but only by a hundred dollars or so per oz.  The day of reckoning has only been postponed...

3.  Obama will continue his descent in the polls as more and more Americans come to the realization that he is a Charlatan;   Big miss.  Obama's personal approval ratings held although approval for the job he did fell.  One of the great mysterys of our time.  Bottom-line though ...I blew it. 

4.  Trump will finally fade out and Marco Rubio will win the Republican nod; Another miss though I am in good company.

5.  Hillary will take the Democratic crown assuming that she is not charged criminally for her cavalier treatment of top secret Government Emails.  (It is unlikely she will be charged but that is not to say – she should not be.  If it was you or me – you can bet charges would be laid);  Got that one correct but no big deal since there were only a handful of Dems running for the roses.

6.  So who will win the US November Presidential Election? … you will have to await the end of this;

7.  Russians head for the polls in September to elect their DUMA – (Parliament) at which time Putin’s party will make substantive gains given his high personal popularity.  Shows you what military aggression can do for one’s popularity;   It did.. in fact his party received a 'Super Majority'

8.  Angela Merkel will see her popularity continue to decline due to the way she has handled the refugee situation – that is to say, Germans believe too many refugees are being admitted to their country.  Her re-election in 2017 is very much in jeopardy;   Her numbers as predicted declined over 2016 and more on this when I do my predictions for 2017.  A hint though ...'she is toast'.

9.  NATO will keep Putin / the Russians in check along the Eastern European Border;  Again I am correct - finally 2016 saw NATO come to life.  Too bad it did not entrench itself into the Middle East too. 

10.  He will continue to be active in the Middle East in support of Bashar al Assad thereby helping to ensure continued turmoil in that part of the world;  Right again.  al Assad is back in total control of his country thanks to his main man ...Vladd Putin. 

11.  ISIS will finally be pushed off the lands they now hold in Syria and Iraq.  The combination of air strikes and ground troop action is beginning to take a heavy toll on them which they will not be able to withstand much longer;  Another win for me.  Realize at the time of writing the so-called experts were saying that ISIS could not be defeated without US boots on the ground.  It was nonsense.  Sadly though, ISIS and their Ilk are not through yet.... await my 2017 predictions.  

12.  ISIS will though be replaced by numerous other Islamic Extremist Groups throughout the Middle East and Many Parts of Africa. True peace will have to await the time of moderate Muslims taking control and that dear reader will not happen over the course of this New Year.  It means that Islamic Terrorist Attacks will continue unabated throughout the World;   See my comments in #11.

13.  Even more problematic for the Muslim Countries is the fact that relations between their two major factions - the Sunnis and the Shiites, is breaking down.  This deterioration will continue over 2016 and if not brought under control over the next few years will have very grave consequences for that part of the world;   We are seeing the signs of this more and more.  With the Russia, Iran, and Syria Axis (ie supporters of Shittes) it is a matter of time before there is all out conflict with the Sunnis.  That dear reader will be the fight of the century. 

14.  An important aspect of this risk is the fact that Iran has been given clearance by the United States to complete the building of its atomic bomb.  It is hard to imagine that Israel and now Saudi Arabia will sit back and let that happen but I do not see any action on their part against Iran in 2016.  Saudi Arabia will though focus on arming itself as it now realizes it cannot depend upon Uncle Sam or should I say Uncle Barack;  All these latter predictions are inter-related and they are all truisms.  I have said on numerous occasions that the biggest danger for the middle east is Iran and sadly it has not only been Putin's Russia lending them a helping hand but also the little guy in the White House.  I don't even think as of today he realizes the mess he has made of things.  History will not be kind to him.

15.  In many respects, 2016 will appear like 2015 and 2014 before it;   Boy I got that one wrong...2016 was far worse.

16.  And the winner is …. Marco Rubio.  Another miss...but again I was in good company since I cannot recall anyone at the beginning of 2016 predicting a win for The Donald.  If nothing else he will make the coming 2017 and the following 3 years most interesting.

                                                                   -------------

All and all I don't think I did too bad.  I will get my predictions for 2017 out to you over the next few days.  In the meantime, Happy New Year.

'K.D. Galagher'

ARMAGEDDON...

NOTE: Today, Jan. 17/17, I read an article by the renowned columnist Robert Sibley.  In it he agrees with much of what I have written below but adds a certain dimension to the issue.  I will use his own words - 

• "If I didn't know better, I'd be tempted to dust off the Book of Revelation and update myself on ....the End of Days."
• We might do better to look at a long-dead German philosopher Friedrich Nietzsch to gain some understanding of why things are falling apart."

• In the 19th Century Nietzsch wrote "The story I have to tell is the history of the next 2 centuries with wars such as have never happened on earth."

• Sibley points out that although Nietzsch was an Atheist himself, he foresaw the crisis of culture that would follow the collapse of the Christian Value System.  Nietzsch warned of the "total collapse of all values" during the 21st Century....that is to say, in our present Century.

Is It Upon Us?

The Bible mentions many times about the end of humanity's time here on earth and how violent things will be.  Some of those passages predict it will begin in the Middle East which has suffered so much in both death and destruction over the course of the last several years.

Could this be the foretelling of the end?

Luke 21:20-28(NIV)

20 “When you see Jerusalem being surrounded by armies, you will know that its desolation is near. 25 On the earth, nations will be in anguish and perplexity at the roaring and tossing of the sea.26 People will faint from terror, apprehensive of what is coming on the world, for the heavenly bodies will be shaken. 27 At that time they will see the Son of Man coming in a cloud with power and great glory.28 When these things begin to take place, stand up and lift up your heads, because your redemption is drawing near.”

I leave it to each of you to interpret what the above means for you personally but what is indisputable is the fact that evil has been let loose in that special part of the world. 

Let's start with the recent betrayal of Israel ...the region's only Democracy ..by President Obama, aka the little guy in the white house. 

Sadly, he is not alone in his condemnation of the Jew-  antisemitism is on the rise throughout the world and is especially evident in the halls and meeting rooms of the United Nations.

For the life of me, I cannot understand why the Jews attract so much wrath.  Have they not suffered enough?

Even though I am retired, I have said many times that I would be prepared to pick up arms to help Israel if the need for such ever came about and if they were prepared to accept my help.

In a recent blog, I wrote about the parallel between the assassination of the Russian Ambassador to Turkey this month and the assassination of the Arch Duke in 1914.  The Middle East was a tinderbox then.. as it is now...but today the weapon of choice is the unforgiving Nuclear Bomb.

And now Russia has replaced the United States as the Power in the Middle East.  Allied with it are Iran, (which has sworn to erase Israel from the face of the earth) and Syria, which has just finished killing nearly a half million of its own citizens and displaced millions more.

Hardly foreshadows a safe and secure future for Israel or for that matter the rest of us.

That said, I do not know if the end is truly at hand but I can tell you that the signs certainly point in that direction.  


As I see it...

'K.D. Galagher' 

YOUNG TRUDEAU..A YEAR END REVIEW.

A year ago I swore off Blogging about my home country Canada since it was obvious to me that with Justin Trudeau's then election as our Prime Minister and with our key Provincial Governments in Liberal / New Democratic hands, we were no longer a world player but rather had become a pedestrian backwater. 

I did though promise at that time that I looked forward to providing a 2016 year end review ...report card if you will...on the Young Lad's first year in power.

Here goes:

• YT at the outset made it clear that he would not tolerate anyone in his caucus speaking out in favour of term limits for abortion even up to just before the point of birth.  He kept his pledge and is therefore entitled to an    F-

• He promised to make Euthanasia legal (aka legal Murder) and he did.  Again another    F-

• He promised to take Canada out of NATO led military action in the Middle East and he did - bringing home Canada's meagre jet offering. Fortunately they were so few in number (6) that few noticed especially ISIS.    F

• Young Trudeau has made it clear that he has no stomach for a hot war, in fact his Minister of Defence recently stated Canada has no responsibility to come to the aid of those innocent poor souls being slaughtered daily in the Middle East.  The two would rather focus on UN Peacekeeping even though the UN couldn't keep the peace between such friendlies as Australia and New Zealand. (Note to YT - there has to be peace in order to be able to keep it).    F

• He promised to work with the Provinces to bring in wasteful Cap and Trade and he did.  Another    F

• He promised to end very modest income splitting ($2k max) between spouses and he did.  F

• He promised to reduce income taxes for the middle class by 1.5% and he did but his cap and trade levies will quickly absorb that puny gain.   C+

• He promised to reduce / rollback contribution room in Tax Free Savings Accounts from $10,000 to $5,000 per year and he did.   F

• He promised to bring in a budget deficit of $10 Billion dollars ...and he did score an.. F and then upon attaining office tripled it.   F-

• He is in the process of legalizing Marijuana as per his election promise. (ie. the war against marijuana was lost over 50 years ago).   B+

• He approved 2 out of 3 pipeline applications though the question remains whether he will allow any of them to be built...so for now a:    B

• He has excelled at being a photogenic high-flyer (great hair and teeth).   A+

• In the aftermath of last year's report of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission wrt to Canada's Aboriginals and its nearly 100 Recommendations - YT is busy with the MMsN demanded by the report as in: 1. More Money; 2. More Autonomy; with, 3. No Accountability.   D-

• At the end of last year and the beginning of 2016 Trudeau brought 25,000 Muslim Syrian Refugees into Canada and pledged to bring in another similar number before the end of 2016. These was done and is being done without proper screening even though ISIS brags about their numbers infiltrating these mass movements.  Helping these poor souls is good - but facilitating the corrosive plans and objectives of ISIS is not.   E

• YT said during last year's election that that election would be the last one run employing 'first past the post' ....F, thankfully, it now appears that he is backtracking on his promise...B

• On Health Care he was going to reverse the Harper Conservatives' plan to reduce indexing on future Health Care transfers to the Provinces from 6 % to 3% ... thankfully he backtracked on that pledge too ...B

• His other major backtrack was with respect to Harper's Security Legislation which Trudeau promised to repeal ... he did not, rather he embraced it...B

All and all, not an auspicious first year for the Young-un.

As I see it...

'K. D. Galagher'

ALEPPO CONTINUED...

This will be my last offering with regard to the tragedy better known as 'Aleppo'.

Note:  An update.  Alleppo is Syria's largest city composed mostly of Sunni Muslims (al-Assad is Shia).  This city was the base of Syrian Rebel Forces trying to wrest government from al-Assad and since their civil war began in 2013, some half million Syrians have been killed and millions more displaced. Of telling interest, in the dying days of Aleppo, US President Barack Obama was shepherding motions through the United Nations - motions critical of its one time ally Israel while remaining silent on Aleppo. Obama was not alone in this, other Western - so-called 'freedom loving' leaders were equally mute including Canada's own Young Trudeau.  As the so-called leader of the Free World though Obama has left himself open to singular criticism for his sorry and cowardly inaction. History will not be kind to the little guy who is about to leave the White House. 

Last week saw it fall to Russian and Syrian forces despite the best efforts of United Nations' officials in their attempt to save it from final destruction.

In calling it the "failure of our generation", the following is a picture painted for the Security Council by the UN's Humanitarian Chief Stephen O'Brien:

“Let me take you to east Aleppo this afternoon,” O’Brien said. “In a deep basement, huddled with your children and elderly parents the stench of urine and the vomit caused by unrelieved fear never leaving your nostrils, waiting for the bunker-busting bomb you know may kill you in this, the only sanctuary left to you but like the one that took your neighbour and their house out last night; or scrabbling with your bare hands in the street above to reach under concrete rubble, lethal steel reinforcing bars jutting at you as you hysterically try to reach your young child screaming unseen in the dust and dirt below your feet, you choking to catch your breath in the toxic dust and the smell of gas ever-ready to ignite and explode over you.”

These were innocent Muslims being slaughtered at the hands of their fellow Muslims.

And the world stood silent.

Indeed, I nearly choked when our own Minister of Defence, Harjit Sajjan, defended his Government's position to focus on peace-keeping when explaining why Canada would not become involved in any military effort to protect the defenceless in that doomed city. 

Memo to Sajjan...you cannot have peace-keeping without first attaining peace.

And this from a guy who distinguished himself in fighting for the Allied Forces in Afghanistan.  He cannot claim that he is a novice like many of his fellow cabinet members.  

And speaking of peace-keeping, we in this Country have a Leadership Race underway to become the new Head of the Conservative Party. One of the major candidates, even though he has yet to officially register, spoke the other day about awaiting Aleppo's fall and then stepping forward at some future date .. say 6 months down the road, to offer Canada's services at peace-keeping.  

What utter nonsense.  Does he really think the coalition of Russia, Syria and Iran is going to allow any other country in under any pretenses into their turf - most especially a boy scout as Canada has become under the ruling Liberals? 

I mention this one candidate in particular because he is Trump-like in his thinking and when he deals with issues related to finance, the guy makes some sense but when he drifts away from that topic...he is very much out of his league. 

And speaking of Trump.

He has made it clear that he too favours such an isolationist role for his country.

Thankfully, I do not think he will be able to hang on to that point of view for long.  His temperament would seem to work against it.  

If he does though ... the Free World is in Big Trouble and we will be experiencing many more Aleppo's

As I see it...

'K.D. Galagher'