First, I am rather pleased with my prediction:
% Vote: Libs got 37.6 - I predicted 37.5; PCs got 34.9 - I predicted 33; and the NDP got 23.2 and I predicted 24%
Seats: Libs got 53 - I predicted 58; PCs got 37 - I predicted 32; and the NDP got 17 and I predicted 17.
From my perspective, I was predicting a small majority for the Liberals and with their 53 seats they virtually have that and don't forget - there will be recounts, the Grits can appoint a non-lib Speaker, plus they can entice non-liberals over with Cabinet appointments etc.
So for all intents and purposes they squeaked a virtual majority.
My Analysis:
I had planned to go into this in some detail - reminding dear readers of the many gaffs and screw-ups on the part of McGuinty and company over the course of the last 8 years but for the most part, I have done that in Blogs leading up to last eve. Plus it would take a lot of room and more time than I have this morning.
So a few quick thoughts instead.
First, I cannot remember a more anemic campaign put on by Hudak and his Handlers and I go back quite a while.
Second, I do not believe McGuinty is a liar all the time; ...only when he opens his mouth.
Third, and surprising for most of you no doubt, I am glad McGuinty won.
I say that because by winning, Dalton McGuinty now has to face up to all his follies of his first two terms. Events around the world have overtaken him. He can no longer ignore the high Debt and Deficits that are tearing the Western World apart and that contagion will engulf Ontario over his new mandate.
He did nothing to prepare Ontario for this coming onslaught so it will be fun watching him squirm trying to react to forces now beyond his control.
And, poor olde Hudak did nothing to warrant facing these coming problems.
Plus I am sorry to say, he is not the man to deal with them in any event. He is Tory Lite when Tory Heavy is needed.
The sooner Hudak is gone from the picture the better.
That said, it would be justice to see him stay on and for him to face each day how wrong he was in fighting a lifeless Campaign. A Campaign that should have begun at the time he was appointed Leader but never took off.
That's it - Ontario got what it deserved and will soon reap the results.
As I see it...
'K.D. Galagher'
Friday, October 7, 2011
Wednesday, October 5, 2011
And My Election Prediction ...
Drum Roll Please.
In the last Provincial Election, the Liberals won 71 seats (42%); the PCs won 26 sts (26%) and the NDP won 10 sts (16.7%).
For Tomorrow's Election, I am thinking the Liberals will garner 37.5% of the vote; the PCs 33%; and the NDP 24% based on my reading of the numerous last minute polls.
Based on these numbers, the Liberals will get the most seats.
My breakdown:
1. Liberals ... 58*
2. Progressive Conservative ... 32
3. N.D.P. ... 17
*54 is needed for a Majority.
If my prediction is correct or nearly correct, it will mean another Majority Victory for McGuinty and his fellow Liberals.
His Third in a Row.
You must see the humour in this.
I will provide an analysis post Election on either Friday or more likely, over the course of the Weekend.
As I see it...
"K.D. Galagher'
In the last Provincial Election, the Liberals won 71 seats (42%); the PCs won 26 sts (26%) and the NDP won 10 sts (16.7%).
For Tomorrow's Election, I am thinking the Liberals will garner 37.5% of the vote; the PCs 33%; and the NDP 24% based on my reading of the numerous last minute polls.
Based on these numbers, the Liberals will get the most seats.
My breakdown:
1. Liberals ... 58*
2. Progressive Conservative ... 32
3. N.D.P. ... 17
*54 is needed for a Majority.
If my prediction is correct or nearly correct, it will mean another Majority Victory for McGuinty and his fellow Liberals.
His Third in a Row.
You must see the humour in this.
I will provide an analysis post Election on either Friday or more likely, over the course of the Weekend.
As I see it...
"K.D. Galagher'
Monday, October 3, 2011
Now I am beginning to think I have really lost it !!
What I do know is that the World has reached a cross-road in regard to financial and economic matters generally.
This, though, will present an opportunity for a major change in focus; more specifically, how we measure success.
Under the current regime - the one that has been with us since Adam Smith, we are focused on growth - bigger is better.
GDP numbers must grow each quarter or we deem ourselves to be in recession or worse - depression.
In pursuit of our drive for bigger and bigger GDP numbers, profits and the like, Governments spend like crazy, demand more productivity and impose greater immigration.
In response to this I say, what is wrong with Smaller? Or even the Status Quo? As long as our citizens are fulfilled in their day to day lives.
Let me be clear here, I am not for a moment turning my back on Capitalism for indeed it is the only proven, effective way to ensure quality products at as cheap a price as possible. It also treats individuals evenly, i.e. those who are prepared to work are rewarded and those who are not willing to work, do no succeed.
What I would like to see though is less reliance on over all growth - growth at all cost. Such an approach to me causes more damage than good - a Country like Canada is deemed to need massive immigration for fear we will lack needed workers in the years ahead. But that brings with it a host of problems that are not easily dealt with such as inner city crime, too much demand on our health care and social services. That is not to say that immigration is wrong - heck this country is made up of immigrants - the natives too, albeit they came here somewhat earlier. But Immigration for the sake of Immigration becomes a problem in itself.
In place of GDP analysis, I would like to see a Happiness/Contentment/Fulfillment (HCF) Measure developed.
A 'Put People First' approach that encourages an individual to do what he or she likes and / or is gifted in doing. Be that painting, writing, working with the elderly, our youth, kite making etc; in addition to the professions.
This would have to be done in the schools and in society to help our kids identify things they want to do in life - be it a plumber or a garbage collector. Or maybe a garbage collector who also collects scrap and in the end makes a fortune in recycling.
Included in this is to have the time to 'smell the roses' to get some real enjoyment out of life - it is too short a time to waste.
So instead of saying each quarter that the GDP rose or fell 1.5% we would say, the HCF rose or fell 1.5%.
This approach would hopefully get more people involved in life - off welfare, or off the business treadmill into something they get a kick out of.
It would mean lessening our expectations since the type of living I am referring to would not always bring in the big salaries. The Cost of Living would need to decline since that is one of the prime reasons why life has become so much of a chore for many of us - 2 wage earners per household earning more and more but less to show for it.
We don't need the big houses, the costly cars and all the bells and whistles, many of us can and should get by with less
and, by so doing, I believe we'd all be much happier.
Regardless of what is done - we as the Boomers are headed for some dramatic changes as we retire and grow older. There will be less younger folks around to care for us - even with massive immigration. We will have to attend to our own needs, the best we can. And we'll probably be better off for it.
We might just as well get started and work at improving our own HCF indexes.
'As I see it...
'K.D. Galagher'
This, though, will present an opportunity for a major change in focus; more specifically, how we measure success.
Under the current regime - the one that has been with us since Adam Smith, we are focused on growth - bigger is better.
GDP numbers must grow each quarter or we deem ourselves to be in recession or worse - depression.
In pursuit of our drive for bigger and bigger GDP numbers, profits and the like, Governments spend like crazy, demand more productivity and impose greater immigration.
In response to this I say, what is wrong with Smaller? Or even the Status Quo? As long as our citizens are fulfilled in their day to day lives.
Let me be clear here, I am not for a moment turning my back on Capitalism for indeed it is the only proven, effective way to ensure quality products at as cheap a price as possible. It also treats individuals evenly, i.e. those who are prepared to work are rewarded and those who are not willing to work, do no succeed.
What I would like to see though is less reliance on over all growth - growth at all cost. Such an approach to me causes more damage than good - a Country like Canada is deemed to need massive immigration for fear we will lack needed workers in the years ahead. But that brings with it a host of problems that are not easily dealt with such as inner city crime, too much demand on our health care and social services. That is not to say that immigration is wrong - heck this country is made up of immigrants - the natives too, albeit they came here somewhat earlier. But Immigration for the sake of Immigration becomes a problem in itself.
In place of GDP analysis, I would like to see a Happiness/Contentment/Fulfillment (HCF) Measure developed.
A 'Put People First' approach that encourages an individual to do what he or she likes and / or is gifted in doing. Be that painting, writing, working with the elderly, our youth, kite making etc; in addition to the professions.
This would have to be done in the schools and in society to help our kids identify things they want to do in life - be it a plumber or a garbage collector. Or maybe a garbage collector who also collects scrap and in the end makes a fortune in recycling.
Included in this is to have the time to 'smell the roses' to get some real enjoyment out of life - it is too short a time to waste.
So instead of saying each quarter that the GDP rose or fell 1.5% we would say, the HCF rose or fell 1.5%.
This approach would hopefully get more people involved in life - off welfare, or off the business treadmill into something they get a kick out of.
It would mean lessening our expectations since the type of living I am referring to would not always bring in the big salaries. The Cost of Living would need to decline since that is one of the prime reasons why life has become so much of a chore for many of us - 2 wage earners per household earning more and more but less to show for it.
We don't need the big houses, the costly cars and all the bells and whistles, many of us can and should get by with less
and, by so doing, I believe we'd all be much happier.
Regardless of what is done - we as the Boomers are headed for some dramatic changes as we retire and grow older. There will be less younger folks around to care for us - even with massive immigration. We will have to attend to our own needs, the best we can. And we'll probably be better off for it.
We might just as well get started and work at improving our own HCF indexes.
'As I see it...
'K.D. Galagher'
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