To Call or not to Call… that is the issue

 

Will Prime Minister Harper await the statutory election date in October or go as early as this Spring?

And that dear reader, is the question.

I mentioned in my recent New Year’s Blog that I thought he would go to the polls this March and I have believed this ever since the trial date for Mike Duffy was set for this coming April.

Most pundits still predict an October vote but I find it interesting that of late, a number such as John Ivison – now tend to agree with me.

There have been a number of recent signals for an early election including the dumping of Julian Fantino as Minister of Veterans Affairs.  But I can tell you what will really seal the deal is when Harper fills the 17 vacancies in the Senate. 

If there is to be a March election, these appointments will have to happen soon and I predict it will occur just after the introduction of the Tories Spring Budget which the Minister of Finance just stated will come down in April but I believe it is more likely to occur next month – in early February.

With the dropping price of oil and its threat to the Tories’ balanced budget, I cannot see Harper delaying the general election until the Fall.  The longer he holds off, the worse the economic news is likely to be.

But the real reason I see for an early vote goes right back to the Mike Duffy Trial.

I said when this issue first arose that never in Canadian Politics has so much rested on the antics of one ambitious and ethically challenged individual .. the Duffster.

But to me the truth of the matter is that Harper had to have known about the $90,000 payment from his Chief of Staff – Nigel Wright – to Duffy and yet he not only denied such – he threw his loyal aide under the Bus.

Many behind the scenes have to know this and I cannot see Wright going under oath and claiming otherwise.

What then becomes of Harper?

Probably a resignation since he certainly would not want to go to the polls in October under such a cloud.

Hence my belief that if Harper truly wants to remain as Prime Minister – his only hope is to get the vote done before the trial starts.

I do not relish in any of this since I truly believe that Harper has been the best Prime Minister in many, many years… perhaps the best ever.

He has been able to at least partially meet the needs of Canada’s diverse regions and peoples. Former Prime Ministers have tried – often successfully - to play one region or one set of peoples against the others. 

Harper is what you see - you get and does not appear to have favourites albeit he rightfully hues to the centre right but even for me he is sometimes too ready to lean left.  Another example of having something for everyone.

But Canada is a difficult country to run and he has run it better than most.

I hope that he goes for the March Vote and that he wins it since we will be poorer without him despite his great mis-step in the Duffy Affair.

If the Grits bitch, as they will – one need only remind them that Jean Chretien swore up and down that he never said he would ‘scrap the hated GST’ despite the fact that time and again during that election he did just that.

Whether I am right or wrong – it will be an interesting year in the life of Canadian Politics – as it more than not is.

As I see it…

‘K.D. Galagher’

 

2015 Predictions / Possibilities Part 2

 

Okay, so for this year, much of the world will continue on its journey to hell in a hand-basket.

That is not a prediction as much as it is a statement of fact.

The other night, I was watching Peter Mansbridge and a CBC panel dealing with countries / areas at risk for this coming year and the number identified was simply staggering.  Indeed, there appears to be more at risk than those like Canada which enter the year in fairly good shape.

All I can say is thank God we live here.  We are most blessed.

So let’s now look at what is specifically likely to happen this year in reverse order to my list in Part 1.

Ottawa

The election is over so not too many entrails to paw over.

Gang Shootings are the big issue though – nearly 1 per week – an all time high last year and likely to continue for 2015.

The Police say that if only they assign more officers to their guns and gang unit – the problem will lessen but as one distinguished defence lawyer said – to double down on what has not worked in the past will only insure continued failure in the future and he is correct.

So I predict the problem will persist.  I do have a suggestion for the City and the Police on how they should really be dealing with Gangs, guns et al and that will be the subject of one of my very next blogs.

Ontario

Again the election has passed so little to comment on.

And no doubt you are getting tired of my saying this is Ontario’s worst government in history but sadly I truly believe it and thus nothing of substance will likely improve in 2015.  Again not a prediction but a statement of fact.

One of the only predictions I will make is in regard to May’s Tory Leadership Vote – Christine Elliott will win but she would not be my pick.  With Elliott in place, Ontario will have 2 liberal parties – the Tories and the NDP and one NDP Party – aka the Liberals.

I think the group of candidates is wanting but my choice from this meagre list would be Monte McNaughton if for no other reason than he is the only candidate of the 5 or 6 to come out strongly against Wynne’s pornographic sex education plan for our young public schoolers.

The Tories should have used this time to lick their wounds – give the Grits a chance to self destroy and beat the bushes for some really good candidates – John Baird anyone?

The only other prediction I will make in regard to Ontario is with respect to our economy.  With the drop in oil and the drop in our dollar – economic activity will pick up – (it cannot get any lower given the Grits’ devastating policies that have caused business to flee the Province). It will not though be as robust as it should otherwise be and it will not enable the province to escape its ‘have-not’ status.

Canada

The big news here will be the upcoming Election.

I believe Harper will call it before the Duffy Trial this coming April.

If he does not call it and awaits the statutory date in October I think there is a very good chance Harper will not even be at the helm then.  I will explain in a moment.

By all accounts given that two-thirds of Ontarians lean to the left, Harper et al should have no chance of forming the next government.  That said, I predict he will win and by a slight majority.  I say this because neither the Dippers nor the Liberals have staked out policies that resonate with the voters and this coupled with my prediction of a March election should be enough to carry the Tories to victory. 

If the election is in the Fall, the dirt that comes out of the Duffy trial will plaster the Prime Minister and he will be lucky to personally survive let alone win an election.  I say that because I believe he mislead the public by saying he had no idea that his Chief of Staff paid out $90k to Duffy and if he did, it will all come out at the trial.

The Keystone Pipeline will not get the okay from the little man’s in the white house.  Congress will need a two thirds vote to over-ride his veto and the chances of this happening over the course of this new year are about 50/50 and accordingly does not count as a prediction.

Oil will rebound this year – it cannot get much lower.

The Feds will have to slash even more in staffing and programs to keep its budget balanced – many because of the lost oil revenue.

Harper will use his about to be introduced Bill to fight terrorism as an excuse to go the public early – i.e. an Election in March.

The World

Russia – Putin is wounded – e.g. falling oil prices is causing havoc to the Russian economy and thus he is more dangerous than ever.  That said, I think 2015 will see Russia withdraw back into its borders primarily because NATO has shown at last that it is  prepared to stand and fight him.

ISIS – too will continue to decline (but by no means disappear) in importance throughout the middle east - again because the West has called its bluff especially with its very successful air campaign.

The EBOLA scourge will finally come under control as Western Countries like Canada send the needed resources to fight it.

Greece will leave the EU with Germany’s blessings.

Iran will not be stopped in its ongoing efforts to develop and establish a delivery system for the Atomic Bomb.

Israel -  Netanyahu will win this coming March’s election.  His popularity is being given a big boost by the region’s terrorists. 

Israel will sadly not though launch an attack against Iran despite Obama’s continued dithering.

UK – Cameron will win the May 17 General Election.  Like Netanyahu – he is being helped by the greater aggression on the part of terrorists.

So that’s it – otherwise 2015 will be business as usual – terrorists will continue to terrorize – innocents suffer, the USA will dither, China bully, the world’s economies will languish although cheaper oil will help somewhat.

2015 will be a replay of last year.

As I see it…

‘K.D. Galagher’