2014

 

As I was saying…

As I see it, most of my predictions for this past year – too many of which sadly missed the mark – will be the same again for this coming year.

As in past year’s, I will focus on political and economic rather than social issues but just for the record – socially - our societies are just as sick – nay – even sicker.

Before I restate my prophesies for 2014 – the following background concerning where I see ourselves situated may prove helpful:

Since the Great Recession of 2008, Western governments have been encumbered by sky high debt and unemployment rates that are far too high – especially for our youth.  Simply stated, Asian economies – especially China – are ‘eating our lunch’ and becoming our bankers while doing it.

In addition, Pensions, social programs are underfunded to such an extent that it makes our budgetary debts look like ‘chump change’.

To address their decline, western nations have run from reeling in their out of control expenditures and instead, are printing money with abandon while continuing to rack up record indebtedness.

Intuitively, it makes no sense whatsoever ... but surprisingly, our governments have, in too many instances, been able to get away with their gross mismanagement so far.

To compound this economic uncertainty, radical Muslims have been growing ever stronger in their determined effort to undermine non-Muslim societies. We in the West are losing this battle as well. 

So from my perspective, these are the two greatest issues facing us again, this coming year and I suspect for many years to come. 

So here we go…

My Predictions For 2014:

The World -

1. War will remain widespread but limited in areas – the middle east and many parts of Africa.  Western nations for the most part will be able to sit back and idly watch.
2. China, as its financial power continues to grow will continue to flex its military muscle but will avoid war for foreseeable future.
3. As mentioned above, Islamic terrorism will continue with renewed vigour and this will negatively impact all of us –including Muslims given the animosity that exists between their various sects. Christians and Jews though will continue to be especially targeted. 
4. The ‘experts’ predict that Gold will continue to decline in value over 2014. I disagree for the reasons set-out in the above background.
5. Oil will move sideways as economic recovery will remain fragile and as the United States provides more and more of its energy use from internal sources.  Today’s price is $95 pbl.

The United States -

1. Obama’s approval rating now in the mid 40s will continue to decline.
2. The Republicans will gain control of both the House and Senate in November’s Election.
3. The US debt now $17.3 Trillion will exceed $18 Trillion by year’s end.
4. Their GDP will surprisingly rise – but not by the 4% that financial experts are now predicting. (It is most difficult for me to see their GDP rising at all but I do bow to the ‘experts’ here.  This growth will be fuelled by the private sector which was hammered in 2008 and is simply in a bit of a recovery mode now).
5. Interest rates will continue to rise over 2014.
6. US diplomacy across the world will continue to misfire. Its enemies – Iran, Russia, China, North Korea, the Taliban, Al Qaeda will grow more brazen in thumbing their noses at America.  US allies, in contrast, will watch on in disbelief and will take greater steps to protect their own interests, abandoning their hereto dependence on the USA.

Canada –

There were four major non anticipated occurrences last year here at home: 1. Mayor Rob Ford; 2. The Senate Scandal going rogue; 3. the Alberta Floods and 4. the Lac Megantic rail disaster. Only the Senate Scandal will continue to have legs although whether it should is open to debate.

1. With respect to our dollar the ‘experts’ say that it will continue to decline in comparison to the US sawbuck. It won’t. (as of today it is worth 96 cents).
2. Obama will turn down the Keystone Pipeline construction. for two reasons – one, as mentioned – America is making good progress in its goal of attaining energy self sufficiency; and two – he would be loath to let down his cadre of left wing loonies.
3. Pipeline construction / use generally will pick up across Canada but it will continue to be hampered by efforts of environmentalists, natives at every opportunity.  There will as always be violence mostly on the part of our natives.
4. As stated above, the Senate Scandal will continue in the news but at the end of the day will have little effect on next year’s – (2015) Federal General Election.
5. The Future of the Senate itself will also be a major issue for 2014 as we currently await direction from our left leaning Supreme Court of Canada.
6. The Tories will make hay on several wedge issues – issues that distinguish the Conservatives from both the Liberals and the NDP.  The major ones being the legalization of marijuana, prostitution, and tough on crime issues generally.
7. Although I am not predicting it – Harper may decide to pack it in this year.  He seems to have lost his lust for power and I suspect he is not too happy with himself for the way in which he put several of his former friends and colleagues under the bus – not the least being nice guy Nigel Wright.  I suspect he has a little trouble these days looking at himself in the mirror.  If I had to bet I would predict he will not resign this year – but it he did – it would come as no surprise me. My prediction though is he will be in harness at year’s end. 
8. The Tories will balance the budget by the end of this year as well.
9. Michael Chong’s private member’s bill to reduce the power of the Prime Minister will be approved if it is allowed to go to 3rd and final reading.

 

Ontario -

As I have said many times previously – this current Liberal Government is the worst that I can ever recall save for the possibility of the Duplessis Government of Quebec in the 1930s,40s and 50s.

1. There will be an election this year and the likelihood is that it will occur in the Spring.
2. Tim Hudak will win but one has to question why he would want to after the severe damage done by the Liberals over the course of the past 10 years.
3. Rob Ford will not win the Toronto Mayoralty in this fall’s election. (I said above the Ford story will no longer have legs – that is not to say it will not be in the news – it simply means no one will give a damn if it is nor should they).

E.U. -

1. Will for the most part be a non-issue in 2014 the only significant issue will be the continued rise of the extreme right against Jews and refugees.

 

Russia -

1. There will be no terrorists attacks at next month’s Sochi Games.  Security will just be too tight.
2. Putin has consolidated his power over 2013 and thus is well positioned to continue with his dictatorial ways over 2014 and likely beyond.
3. Russia (Putin) will continue to try to upstage the USA but the fact is Russia’s days as a world super power is over.
4. Russia’s fight to more closely ally itself with the Ukraine will continue over the year but it is doomed to failure as the Ukraine will eventually become part of the EU – not this coming year though.  Until things are settled, violence will be prevail. 

China -

1. It will continue to grow economically by leaps and bounds and will continue to beef up its military capacity.
2. It will not seriously engage in military action.

North Korea -

1. Something is gravely amiss in the North.  Dear Leader is in trouble and will be fortunate to survive although I believe with the execution of his uncle – he has bought time to survive at least until next year.

The Middle East -

1. The chaos that is the middle east will continue unabated.
2. Afghanistan will a) see the Taliban’s continue  retake this poor nation and b) America will fashion a last minute deal to keep its troops there for at least another year.
3. Iran will remain the biggest story of the year  – in other words, the question remains will it be allowed to continue with its building of nuclear weapons?   I do not see America having the commitment under Obama to take the steps needed to stop them.
4. Israel – a) is surrounded by Muslim Countries on fire and the fallout is encroaching upon their territory. Things will only worsen over 2014. b) The biggest threat to Israel and indeed to the middle east is the danger posed should Iran successfully develop the bomb.  That being said – Israel would – if it has US backing – knock the heck out of Iran’s nuclear program.  But since it does not have America’s backing the question for this year – is will it go it alone? For me – it depends on whether or not the current agreement with Iran – the US et al is resolved successfully.  If it breaks down – I can see Israel going it alone against Iran in 2014. c) a proposed agreement, currently under discussion between Israel and Palestine – and brokered by the USA – will crash and burn like all those before it.
5. Syrian - leader Bashar al Assad has been able to reinforce his position over the course of last year and accordingly will not be defeated in 2014 … the civil war will though continue unabated. The only thing which could have tip the balance against him would have been the entry of NATO which did not / will not happen.
6. Egypt – The Military will continue its just war against the Muslim Brotherhood.  Violence will continue in their streets but this is the best thing to have have happened in the Middle East in a long time.  The Military has identified the enemy and has taken the measures needed to address Muslim Terrorism.  This has the best chance for resulting in a peaceful middle east hopefully sometime in the not too distant future.

That’s it – if I think of anything else or if any of you have any suggestions for me – please let me know.

As I see it…

‘K.D. Galagher’

 

1.  

 

My Prognostications for 2013

 

Once again my predictions … were in too many cases wide of the mark. 

Let’s start with Canada:

1. Trudeau will win the Liberal Leadership – check
2. Harper will earnestly move to implement his Party’s agend – X (the Senate Scandal intervened)
3. Native unrest will intensify – check
4. Chief Spence will emerge from her hunger strike in tact – check.
5. Canada will continue to lead the G-7 economically – check

     4 for 5 – 80%

The world:

1. Wars involving the West will diminish – no money left to fight – check

1 for 1 – 100%

The US of A :

1. Its debt as of January 3. 2012 was $16.3 Trillion and will exceed $17 Trillion dollars by Dec. 31/13 –as of December 26, 2013 it is $17,250,656,426,380.22 or some $56,778.00 per every man, woman and child – check
2. Debt Raters will downgrade the America’s credit rating.  Update – on Oct 15/13 Fitch issued a credit watch and on Oct 17/13 – Dajong Global reduced America’s rating from A to A minus and maintained a negative outlook going forward – check
3. Interest Rates will rise. Update – bond rates in the US have risen 1% over this year while Canadian Mortgages have seen a similar increase.  I had expected higher numbers so grade myself a – neutral.
4. Gold will reach $2,000 per oz by end of December 2013.  In fact it closed today at just a little above $1,200 per oz.  I blew it – x
5. Oil will not rise above the $85 – $90 range.   Today it was trading at just about $100 per barrel – another miscue – x
6. Feds will continue with quantitative easing (printing of $ without growth in GDP) - check

        3 for 5 with one neutral - - 60%

Ontario:

1. Sandra Pupatello will win the Liberal Leadership – wrong – x
2. There will be an election in 2013 and Hudac will win – wrong – x
3. The Teacher protest will spread to the rest of Ontario’s Public Service – wrong - x

        0 for 3 – 0%

China:

1. will continue to outperform the west – check

       1 for 1 – 100%

Europe:

1. will descend into recession / more civil unrest – it has done so but not by as much as I had anticipated – neutral

Middle East:

1. More Islamic Winter – check
2. Al Qaeda growth throughout Africa – check

   2 for 2 – 100%

Russia: 

1. will continue with its one man rule – check
2. its economy will suffer.  In fact it did – GDP stood at a respectable 3.4% for 2012 but declined to an anaemic 1.8% for this past year – 2013 - check

   2 for 2 – 100%

Iran:

1. The US will finally move in 2013 to wipe out Iran’s nuclear capability – it did not – x

        (this has been and will continue to be the biggest issue affecting the world for these past several years and will again in 2014)

   0 for 1 – 0%

Afghanistan:

1. the Taliban will continue to retake Afghanistan.  All reports indicate that the Taliban has increased its presence in Afghanistan throughout 2013 and have positioned themselves to retake the country once US Troops are gone next year.  - check

   1 for 1 – 100%

Syria:

1. Assad will be gone by year’s end.  The devil is still there – mark me an – x

    0 For 1 – 0%

So all in all I am not too happy with these results and will try to do better when my list for 2014 comes out shortly.

K. D. Galagher