Let’s Once Again Pretend Today Is June 12th …

 

Election Day for the Province of Ontario.

So what do the Polls show?

PC’s are way out in front – one poll having the Tories @ 42% and the most recent – an Ipsos Reid Poll, showing the Tories at 39%, the Grits at 30% and the Dippers bringing up the rear at 24%.

And this means?

A Tory Majority with the Liberals forming the Official Opposition.

In the Toronto core, the Liberals still lead with 37% but in the important GTA, the Tories come in at 48% with the Grits way behind at 34%.

So if the election was held today, the Tories under Tim Hudak would become Ontario’s next Government.

But this is no thanks to his blunder in recently announcing that he would cut 100,000 government jobs.  But it does show that his mistake has not proven fatal … i.e. most civil servants are not apt to be voting Tory any way.

That said, the really important event, besides the actual election day, has yet to come …the one and only Debate between the 3 Leaders scheduled for June 3rd.

That there is only one such Debate, is affront to democracy but we will take what we can get.

But so much for open dialogue with the voter.

As I indicated from the beginning, the Liberals were at their ceiling when the election began (low 30s), the Tories at their floor (mid 30s) and the NDP trailing in the mid 20s. 

In other words – the Liberals could go down …but not up and the Tories could go up, but not down.

And that is exactly what has transpired as you can see from the Ipsos Reid Poll.

But Debates have a tendency to change things and following are the main things that could occur:

1.  Wynne scores big – 8 up to 10 out of 10.  By doing so, she would preserve her core vote in the early 30 per centile.

2.  Wynne could under perform – i.e. 5 to 7 out of 10 and this would see her core vote diminish probably into the 20 per centiles.

3.  Hudak could score big – 8 to 10 out of 10 and this would launch him well into the 40s  - or -

4.  Hudak could under perform – 5 / 7 out of 10 and his party would drop back to the mid 30s.

5. In regard to Horwath, a good performance would likely see her Party climb to be in direct competition with the Liberals. 

6.  Conversely, a poor performance on Horwath’s part would see her Party slip lower into the 20s.

So that’s what could happen.

Here is what I think will happen:

1.  Hudak will be perceived to do well since expectations for him are lower than for the other two.  In so doing, he will be able to hold on to his majority status lead.

2.  Wynne will also be seen to have done well and accordingly should have no trouble hanging on to her support in the low 30s.

3.  Horwath becomes the wild card. If she scores big, and I think she will, the NDP will move up to challenge the Grits for 2nd place.

But as I said, this is what I currently think will happen … it will all depend upon the polls between now and the debate and then between the debate and election day.

So on the note …stay tuned for the next ‘pretend its election day’.

As I see it…

‘K.D. Galagher’

 

They Put The World’s Dictators To Shame..

 

The Police in Lac Megantic … that is.

In the early morning hours of July 6, 2013, the town of Lac Megantic was destroyed by a runaway train carrying crude oil.  Some 47 perished in the resulting flames.

Blame has centred around the lone engineer for allegedly not having properly secured the stationary train from its resting place on the outskirts of town.

This week saw that lone engineer taken down in his home by a swat team despite the fact that up till then, the engineer had fully cooperated in the investigation and despite the fact that his lawyer had undertaken on his behalf to voluntarily come into court should charges of criminal negligence be laid against his client.

Not only that, but the police also paraded the engineer around Lac Megantic in handcuffs along with two other officials of the rail road company.

Message to the cops …this was an accident, a very unfortunate accident mind you, but one that occurred without malice on the part of anyone.

That is not to say it does not have a criminal element to it; indeed, when negligence is so gross, it can amount to criminal negligence which appears to be the case here …but it was still unintended.

It did not require a swat team take down nor did it require the three accused to be paraded in cuffs.

Nor did it require the three to be paraded around the town. Would you not have thought a more neutral venue could have been found to read out the charges?

Indeed, given the high emotions there it would not have been that surprising to see a resident try to take vengeance into their own hands.

The old adage that Justice must not only be done … it must also appear to be done comes to mind. But in the case at hand, the reverse is emphasized … Justice Must Appear To Be Done.

More important then for the authorities to appear to be tough even when dealing with a tragic accident.

These are not hardened criminals but you would not know it from what has taken place in Lac Megantic over the last few days.

As I see it…

‘K.D. Galagher’

Maybe Hudak’s People Are Listening …

In yesterday’s Blog, I offered a five point program to Hudak and his folks – today they came out in favour of my Suggestion 2, it read as follows:

I would assure businesses and citizens alike that their power rates will be dramatically reduced.  Water Power, Gas Power and Nuclear Power will be used exclusively and if need be, we would buy power at cheap rates from Quebec and Manitoba.

Word for word, they have taken my advice.

Now whether that is a coincidence or not does not matter – what does matter is that the PCs have adopted this policy.  It is a winner.

Yesterday, as you know, I was lamenting the fact that Hudak had come out to say that 100,000 public service jobs would be eliminated under his watch. 

It was a dumb move on his part for a number of reasons not the least of which is its inhumanity.  Rather than pink slips, better to impose freezes on hiring and salary / benefit increases and then let attrition do its magic.

With so many public servants approaching retirement age, it will not be long before their ranks are down by that stated number.

Plus the move is dumb politically.

Not only are you talking about 100,000 civil servants being let go – you are including their full number of plus 1 million, since no one will know until after the election who will be affected.

And when you add spouses, adult children and the like – that number swells to well over 3 million.

So now you have 3 million voters out their who are not likely to vote for you for that reason alone.

Hudak needs to back-track on that one but sadly I do not see him doing so.

At least I can now comfort myself in knowing he has got his act together when it comes to wrestling expensive hydro power to the ground.

Keep up the good work.

As I see it…

‘K.D. Galagher’

One Million, One Hundred Thousand …

 

To Go.

As in Tim Hudak’s promise to create One Million New Jobs for Ontarians should he be elected on June 12th.

Never a policy, more of a hope, the one million job figure seemed more of a creation within Tim’s mind.

But now, with his pledge this week to cut 100,000 public service jobs, he will have to find 1,100,000 new ones in order to attain his wish.

Funny way to create jobs if you asked me.

Not that something drastic needs does not need to be done to get government spending under control but to purposely frighten public service workers with elimination, on the eve of election day, is not, dear reader, the stuff of getting elected.

It comes under the heading - snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

Have you noticed, there is something about Tiny Tim that seems to relish in defeat; I once had a baseball coach like that … he was happiest when we lost, but that story is for another time.

On the day of his 100,000 job cut announcement, a major employer, just outside of Toronto, announced it was leaving Ontario and gave as the reason, Ontario’s punitive laws and regulations. It cast the Provincial Liberals in very poor light.

And this, at a time, when Wynne was reeling from her disastrous Budget’s plan to create a made in Ontario Pension Plan.  Not only is it unnecessary, but it will cost employers and employees dearly and will accelerate the loss of jobs for a Province already haemorrhaging them.  

Now Tiny Tim has changed the channel and made himself the object of derision.

It is enough to make hard nosed Tories like myself weep.

I do not know who is advising Hudak but there is something desperately wrong.

The last Election saw the worst Tory Campaign I can recall and now they seem to be trying to outdo that dismal performance.

So if I was on board as an Advisor to Hudak here is what I would tell him to do:

First – promise to cancel the entire Green Energy Program.  It is the main reason Ontario has fallen into Have-Not Status.

Second – I would assure businesses and citizens alike that their power rates will be dramatically reduced.  Water Power, Gas Power and Nuclear will be used exclusively and if need be, we will buy power at cheap rates from Quebec and Manitoba.

Third, I would drop the plan for 100,000 red slips and announce instead a freeze on hiring in the public service along with a freeze in pay and benefits until parity has been reached with the private sector.  This would apply to MPPs and their Staff as well.

Fourth, I would promise a review upon being elected of all Boards and Commissions with to the objective being to eliminate all those which are redundant and or unnecessary.

Fifth, and for good measure, I would promise to establish a judicial inquiry into the Gas Plant Scandal with the objective to see those who did wrong – punished.

To go beyond those 5 items will only court trouble and besides, with those 5 plus all the ammunition the Grits have given Hudak and company over the last 11 years – there will be plenty to talk about in the Hustings.

As I see it…

‘K.D. Galagher’