A Look Ahead To ...2012

Now for some real prognostication.


First: Politics

• Mitt Romney will win the GOP race handily;
• Even if I am wrong about Romney, whomever wins the GOP will go on to beat Obama, America's worst President since Peanut Grower, Jimmie Carter;
• Putin will be forced out of Russian Politics - you heard it here first;
• Bob Rae will be confirmed as the Liberal's Permanent Leader;
• The NDP Leadership race will not be won by Thomas Mulcair despite his sizable lead in the polls (45%). He will be beaten by one of two dark horses - Peggy Nash (16%) or Paul Dewar (5.5%) and my money is on the long shot Dewar;
• With Mulcair's loss, the NDP's slide down in Quebec will quicken with their former supporters going to the Liberals the Bloc and to the Conservatives. The Liberals will be the big winner.
• Alberta must by law go to the polls this Spring. I see the Tories winning by a minority with the Wild Rose becoming the Official Opposition. As polls stand today, the Tories would cruise to an easy Majority - they won't though;
• Great Britain's Tory Government will fall and in the subsequent election, PM Cameron will regain power, this time with a majority;
• North Korea will move closer to detente under its new Leader;
• Pakistan's Government will be taken over - once again, by its Military.

Second: Government

• The Governments of the West will continue to slash and burn as State Debt continues to overwhelm the economy;
• This will continue to be most evident in Europe and even here in Canada, where federal government programs will be dropped / scaled back and high paying government jobs lost - 10 to 15 % of our federal current work force will be gone by this time next year;
• Given it is an Election Year in the United States - there will be much resistance to 'slashing and burning' and besides, Obama does not have the make-up to do what is necessary. Accordingly, most of their cutting will come in 2013 and 2014 under the Republicans and it will assuredly come.

Third: Civil Discourse

• The Civil Discourse (riots) that have plagued Europe will continue and will become even more violent as cuts in their social programs accelerate and more radical elements will involve themselves. Deaths will mount;
• There will be some of this occur in Canada but nothing to scale given that our economy is doing well. Few if any deaths can be expected;
• Civil Discourse in the US will occur but it will be muted given the 'put off' of tough measures into 2013.

Fourth: Economy

• Our economy will continue to outpace the G-8;
• Our dollar will end the year higher than its US counterpart;
• Interest Rates will continue to move sideways;
• Gold, Silver will out perform most other investments.
• Oil will stay consistently above $100 per b. and much higher should my prediction below in regard to Iran come to pass;
• China's role internationally will modestly diminish this year as their exports soften but a rise in its domestic economy will put this country in good stead for the future.
• We enter 2012 on the brink of financial collapse in the West and our collective state debts threaten to overwhelm our respective economies - Canada as well. My guess is that we will muddle through for one more year but the clock is ticking and sooner - rather than later, Governments must get their balance sheets in order. Europe save for Germany has been downgraded, the USA is subject to a negative credit watch - as is our dear Province of Ontario. These things can only be expected to get worse in 2012 but as I said, with a bit of luck we in the West may be able to muddle through for one more year. That's my prediction.

Fifth: Foreign Affairs

• The Islamists will entrench themselves in power in the Middle East putting to rest, once and for all, any thoughts of an Arab Spring. The Dictatorships will be seen as the 'good ole days'.
• Iran will meet its 'comeuppance' most likely at the hand of Israel or perhaps even the USA - but the cat and mouse game that has gone on for the last few years will come to an end. The fact that Obama is in an Election Year and is desperate for voter support will also be a big factor in this.

We, as Canadians, live in the Best Country in the World - we are so very fortunate. We have been given natural riches and resources beyond comprehension and we are possessed of a people who are not afraid of hard work.

We are indeed Blessed - in the coming year and always.

As I see it..

'K. D. Galagher'

A Look Back Over 2011...

In regard to My Predictions For This Year.

But first, did you know that I completed 138 Blogs in 2011? And since the beginning - on July 6, 2009 - I have written 241 of the little devils.

Thought you might find that of interest. I enjoyed every moment.

Now for my prognostications for this year just ending:

Elections -

a) Federal and Ontario Provincial

• I predicted that both Harper and Hudak would win elections this year - Harper with a minority and Hudak with I majority. Wrong on both counts though Harper did win and won by a majority.
• I indicated that the Federal Election would take place this past Spring - which it did. And of note, I had been predicting the Spring 2011 Election Date for the past 2 + years.

correct, +1.5 points wrong, -2 points

b) USA

• I predicted that Mitt Romney would come out of 2011 in the lead for the GOP - and he has. I also predicted that the Tea Party would remain a force in 2011 - which it has.

correct, +2 points

c) Britain

• I said that the Tories would be forced into another Election - I was wrong. wrong, - 1 point

d) Italy

• I predicted that PM Berlusconi would be gone - I was right. correct; 1 point

The Economy

a) USA

• I predicted it would continue to decline due to its horrendous debt - and it has. no brainer - no points

b) Canadian Dollar

• said it would stay above par - and it has not. wrong; -1 point

c) Canadian Economy

• would out perform the US - it did. correct; + 1 point

d) European Contagion

• would continue to spread across Europe and would begin to affect America's ratings - and it has. Plus even our dear Province of Ontario is now on a negative credit watch. correct; + 1 point

e) Interest Rates

• I predicted that 5 year mortgage rates would rise to 5-6%. - wrong - they remained flat; - 1 point

f) Oil

• that it would average $100 a barrel - and it has. correct; + 1 point

g) Gold / Silver / Copper

• that they would reach record levels - and they did albeit are now on a temporary downward trend.

they did reach record levels but are now in decline - no points awarded.

h) China

• will continue to lead the pack - it did no brainer - no points

i) Over Legislation / Regulation

• will begin to slow - it has but remains in its infancy too small to register, no points

j) Number of Civil Servants - salaries

• will begin to reverse - it has but it too remains in its infancy too small to register - no points

k) Social Welfare Programs

• will begin to decline - they have declined big time in Europe and have just begun to decline in North Am. as I did not specify Europe - no points awarded

World Affairs

a) Terrorism will continue with softer targets - it has. correct, but almost a no brainer; +.5 of a point

b) Haiti plus Africa will continue to suffer - they have. no brainer - no points

c) Afghanistan to stalemate - it has. same here - no brainer - no points

d) Iran big story plus no regime change - right on both counts. correct; 1 point

e) North Korea - will continue to be majorly in the news for 2011 - it has been but primarily due to Dear Leader's death which I did not foresee. wrong; 1 point

f) Russia will continue to decline into dictatorship under Putin - it has. no brainer - no points

g) Airport and Border Security will continue to thicken - it has. no brainer - no points

h) Democracies will be upstaged by Communist / Dictatorship Governments - they have not. wrong; - 1 point

i) Immigration Backlash - rise of right wing in Europe to neutralize Muslim effect - it has. no brainer...

j) Persecution against Christians and Jews to accelerate - it has. correct; + 1 point

Generally Speaking

A most difficult year - greater civil unrest - it has been that. all and all 2011 was a most sh..ty year +1 point.

Final Tally: 11 Correct and 7 Wrong. Not So Good.

For Next Year's List, which I will post before Jan, 1, 2012, I will try to do better and I will also try to avoid predicting on the 'no brainers'.

As I see it....

'K.D. Galagher'

It's Official ......

The Race for the US Presidency, 2012 - 2016 is over !!

Well perhaps not 'officially over' but as good as.

And the Winner is ............'Mitt Romney'.

That is unless he a) dies before Election Day or b) is found in bed with a dozen other men. (women he would probably get away with).

So 'Mormon Mitt' is the West's new guy for the next four (4) years.

None of the 8 or so Republican challengers can hold a candle to him and Obama has made so many mistakes, even any one of those eight would have given him a good run for his money.

But in many respects, Mormon Mitt has it all.

He even looks the part !!

He has experience in business; as Governor of Massachusetts, he has experience running a major government and he knows his way around the Foreign Affairs files.

And unlike his main Republican Rival - Newt Gingrich and the Current Occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, he works well with others (i.e. he is not a one man band); an essential attribute if one is to be a successful President in a Government composed of Checks and Balances.

So you have heard it here first. Look at all the wear and tear and worrying I have saved you awaiting the formal results next November.

I plan to do my usual prognostication for the up coming year but wanted to get this most important one out of the way first.

As I see it....

'K.D. Galagher'

What to do about Syria

Readers will know that I was not a fan of the West getting involved in the Arab Spring when it came to either Egypt or Libya.

That does not hold though in the case of Syria.

How so?

First, in regard to the Arab Spring - it was obvious to me that we were really dealing with an Arab Winter. The Dictators - as bad as they were - were less of a problem than what is replacing them - that is to say Extreme Islamists. Citizens of these two countries - the moderate muslims and the non-muslims will soon look back on the days of the Dictators as Utopia - sad as that is to say. Indeed, it is already happening while we in the West stand helplessly by.

So why should Syria be treated differently?

Syria along with Iran and North Korea are a Triumvirate of Rogue States. Most problematic is the fact that each wants to be a Nuclear Power - North Korea already has the Bomb - Iran is on the cusp - assuming it does not already have it and Syria is continually working toward it.

Simply stated - the three countries are just too dangerous to leave to their own devices.

Permit me to digress at this point.

In the First Gulf War, I supported 'Bush I' when he decided to leave Saddam Hussein in place as a strategic check on Iran.

I then mistakenly supported 'Bush II' when he went after the same Saddam Hussein after the bombing of the Twin Towers extending to him the benefit of the doubt that Saddam had Weapons of Mass Destruction that needed taking out.

I was wrong to have done that since I knew too that the Triumvirate of Evil even back then were the Three Rogue Powers noted above.

Rather than Iraq, - Bush the Younger should have targeted Iran - the most dangerous of the Three.

We have now lost a decade and nothing has been gained but much has been lost.

Iraq is swinging quickly over to the Islamists, Afghanistan will do so when the US pulls out as it must eventually do.

Korea's Nuclear capability gets stronger each year and it is only a matter of time when Iran joins the Nuclear Club.

Ant the Middle East is quickly transforming into an Islamist Paradise.

The only country that is on the ropes is dear olde Syria and we in the West should move in now to make sure that any of its weaponry does not fall into the hands of those even more antagonistic to our way of life.

But Dear Reader - it is not too late - even at this 11th hour. We could still move to neutralize the Threesome but I fear we in the West lack the Will (ability?) to do so.

Europe is engaged in an economic melt down, America is stalled in a recession with a President who lives in la la land.

That leaves Israel, South Korea, Canada and perhaps a demilitarized Japan.

Where is a strong vibrant NATO when it's needed?

As I see it...

Where is the Outrage ???

In regard to Peter MacKay's recent junket to Afghanistan - during his Christmas Holidays no less and once again needlessly employing DND Assets to ferry himself there.

We all remember the recent hullabaloo over his calling in a S & R Helicopter to extricate him from his fishing hole during an earlier holiday. Why you'd have thought the guy had committed high treason.

And now he is so thick - he's done it again - this time during his Christmas holidays - indeed on Christmas Day itself. Does he never learn?

And does he not realize that Christmas is a time for family - surrounded by a roaring fire with one's favourite drink?

Not good enough for MacKay obviously - he wants to spend his well deserved holiday with his troops in a god forsaken desert. What's wrong with the guy.

If he could only have walked there - all this might be excusable, but his taking Military Aircraft is simply inexcusable.

The above is of course tongue in cheek - but is meant to support my thesis that the Minister of Defence is on duty 365 days a year (366 in a Leap Yr) 24 hours per day.

This is the same Peter MacKay who took his precious time to undergo Military Boot Camp Training so he could better understand our military.

As a student of history and no youngster myself, I cannot recall a better Minister of Defence in Canada's History.

As I see it...

'K. D. Galagher'