Some Random Predictions for Next Year (2010)

With Some Trepidation I look back at my predictions for this past year:


In Politics:

Civic - Jim Watson will become the new Mayor of Ottawa. CORRECT

Provincial - McGuinty's popularity will continue to decline and we may well see his resignation prior to year's end. PARTIALLY CORRECT

Federal - There will not be an Election in 2010. Tory popularity will continue to rise and Harper will do his damnedest to force (embarrass) the Opposition Parties into voting non-confidence - but all to no avail. This effort will begin with Harper's March Budget. CORRECT

Obama's popularity will continue to decline and the Republicans will make major gains in both the House and the Senate this coming November. CORRECT


The Economy:

The markets in Canada, the United States and around the world will continue to improve CORRECT

The US $ though will continue to decline, while Gold will continue to rise in value. CORRECT

The Canadian $ will surpass the American buck CORRECT (BY THE SKIN OF A LOONEY'S TEETH)

Interest rates will rise significantly in both Canada and the United States and House prices in Canada will decline significantly. WRONG ON BOTH COUNTS

Oil prices will range between $60 and $80. PARTIALLY CORRECT - BUT VERY RECENTLY PRICES HAVE EXCEEDED $90.

Taxes will rise ...a no brainer. DAH


The Environment:

Will be much less an issue. BANG ON

Copenhagen will soon be forgotten and Al Gore will be increasingly discredited. CORRECT

The Oil Sands will be more widely accepted. CORRECT


Afghanistan and Terrorism:

The American Surge will prove successful and the fight against world terrorism will be stepped up. This will be due primarily to a conversion on the part of President Obama with him beginning to accept that the only way to deal with bad guys is through superior force. CORRECT

Acts of Terrorism will unfortunately be stepped up with some occurring in the United States itself. PARTIALLY CORRECT


On balance I think I did okay - you be the Judge. My Predictions for the coming year (2011) to follow.

As I see it...

Note: if there are any subjects that you believe I overlooked or if you wish reasons for my above predictions please just let me know.

"Galagher"

The Day Santa Blew Into Town...

Or more accurately ...The Day His Parade Blew Out.



In my last Blog, I mentioned George Coling's Station Wagon - with the Loud Speakers on Top and it brought back Memories of Brighton's Santa Claus Parade on a Cold, Windy Saturday in late November in the very early 1960s.



Those were the days, in our small community, when the Parade's music came from sources other than a marching band - hence the need for Station Wagon & Loud Speakers.



In the week's leading up to the grand event, various organizations worked diligently in the preparation of their respective Floats - local Church Organizations, Scouts and Guides, Various Service Groups and others.



As a young teen, I was a full fledged Scout and would be perched on the Scouting Float replete with bunting, paper streamers, a faux campfire and more. All placed on a flatbed farm wagon which was the norm for the Brighton Floats and each pulled by one of the local Farm Tractors.



We were to meet at the Public School Parking Lot, just to the East of Town, at 11 a.m. for final touch-ups and to line up. The Parade itself was schedule to head-out at 10 minutes to 12 in order to ensure that it reached the Town's Main Street sharply at noon.



Even as I walked down to the School Yard, children and their parents were beginning to line-up along the Main Street Route. Since Brighton, at the time was very rural, many of those families had travelled some miles to get there.



I mentioned it was cold, but that was not a big problem - other than for those lining up so early. Indeed, it was usually very cold for the Santa Claus Parade. The savings grace was that it did not take the Parade long to navigate Brighton's rather short Main Street.



No, the Big Problem that Day was the Wind: it was Relentless.



When I reached the school grounds, the Scout Float or what was left of it, was already there. The Bunting and Streamers were long gone though. Most of the Hay flooring had also vanished into the wind. Only the Faux Campfire, made from logs, remained.



As the minutes past, other Floats arrived but most had thrown in the towel in the face of the Gale and had headed back home - never reaching their intended destination. The 6 or so Floats which did brave it to the meeting place had been reduced to the bare boards of the Farm Wagon. The little of their remaining streamers and such, filled the air with an almost circus-like atmosphere.



They, in turn, slowly slunk off to their Winter Barns.



Left was only the Station Wagon and the motorized Santa Sleigh. In those days, The Sleigh was the only 'professional' float in the Parade and as such could withstand the wind.



Since a friend of mine - Allan, and I, had experience riding in the back of the Coling Station Wagon during recent Election Campaigns, we were chosen to operate the hand-cranked Victrola - an olde fashion record player (for those younger it performs the same function as a CD player / IPod); but with somewhat lesser quality.



Our music was even more bizarre - consisting of but 1 olde, scratchy 78 rpm recording of Gene Autry singing 'Rudolfe the Red Nose Reindeer'.



Off we set.

The Station Wagon in front with Santa directly behind holding on to his faux beard with all his might.

Not being held up by slow moving Floats, we travelled quickly along Highway Two - the old Trans Canada Highway which served as our Village's Main Street.

In no time we had reached the Business Section where the crowds had lined both sides - the Children viewing in awe - a jolly but wind blown Saint Nick.

I watched the parents' look of bewilderment - necks craning - in expectation of more. More Parade that is - but it was not happen.

We whistled though Town and ended up at the olde Town Hall where Santa doled out bags of Candy to all of the Excited Children. All of them - oblivious to the fact that they had just witnessed Brighton's shortest Santa Claus Parade ever.

The Parents were altogether another matter. They surrounded the poor Town Mayor and demanded that 'something be done' to avoid this type of embarrassment in the future.

And something was done. No future Parade suffered the ignominy experienced by that one in late November in the early 1960s. Future Parades contained more 'professional' floats.

But when I think back to that day - I can still see the excitement and smiles in the children's eyes.

And I was glad to have played a part in bringing them joy.

As I see it...

"Galagher"

PATRONAGE...a dirty word?

Not at all.



Given my strong feelings in favour of deep-sixing the Senate, you might assume that I am down on Patronage. Not so.



I just believe, for reasons previously and amply given, the Senate is a waste of time for everyone - Partisans included.


When I say that I am in favour of Patronage, I am speaking about the placement of Partisans in key (sensitive) government positions such as positions that render quasi-judicial decisions. Such positions, are known as Governor in Council (GIC) Appointments, and can be found on various Tribunals and Boards such as the Refugee Board, the Veteran's Pension Board, and the National Parole Board etc. These GIC appointments are made by the Prime Minister himself.

Let me be perfectly clear though, I am not speaking of favouritism in the letting of Contracts such as we witnessed in the Quebec Advertising Scandal. Contracts are for specific goods or services and it matters not whether the person or persons supplying those needs are political or not. We must adhere to a strict Tendering Process for Contracts, otherwise we descend into the Realm of the Banana Republic.


I continue...

The Patronage, I support - the placement of Partisans in key government positions - performs two important and essential roles in modern day democracies.



First, it mobilizes people to form / back a political organization for the purpose of seeing that their organization attains power. Can't you just imagine 300 plus Members of Parliament trying to operate independently - without Party affiliation. I cringe. Think of how hard it is for your local Council to reach a consensus and they have far fewer members. So for Democracy to work, people are needed to come together to form and support a Party. In recent experience, we have the example of Preston Manning and his Reformers coming together to form the Reform Party which in due course merged with the Progressive Conservatives to form today's governing Conservatives.


These concerned citizens come together, albeit not totally without self-serving expectations, but most are highly motivated to better their country.


In my own case, I have been a Tory supporter since I was 11 or 12 when I started to put up campaign signs around our village. I still remember fondly traveling the County of Northumberland in George Coling's station wagon equipped with one of those roof top loud speakers advertising an upcoming Tory Election Get-together. What fun!


My reward was the excitement of being involved in real Election Campaigns. As I grew older, my involvement increased but I never profited financially from it. My reward was confined to trying to make our Province / Country a better place in which to live; that was all the reward I needed. That said, I do not have difficulty seeing others benefit as a return on their volunteer hours for helping their Party achieve Power.

In that regard, I well remember being responsible for determining which of our County's Law Firms would obtain non-tendered federal law work during the time of Joe Clark's Government in 1979. (Not being in a major centre, my own small firm did not qualify for any of this government business). The hue and cry though that went up from the Liberal Law Firms was something to behold. Why, "they had done this work for decades and now it was arbitrarily being taken away from them". The Liberal Press was full of the horror stories. And yet, when Clark's Government fell but 9 months later and that legal work returned to those same Liberal Firms, not a word was said: not by the Tory Law Firms which barely had time to issue their first bills; not by the Liberal Firms which viewed the return of this work as their just due, and more importantly, not by the Liberal Press which considered all things Liberal to be right.



Second, Patronage enables the winning Party to put their stamp on government. Without loyal supporters in place, it is much more difficult, indeed nay impossible, to roll out the Party's Platform.



Allow me to provide you with some personal examples. I worked for a number of Departments that contained GIC appointments and later in my career, I even held such a position myself for a brief period of three years. (I may someday write a Blog on that very trying but interesting period).



In any event, I remember speaking with one such GIC Appointee of the previous Government, who decided to resign his post due to the fact that he readily admitted he was not "philosophically in tune with the new Government". (I can tell you that such resignations did not happen very often and it was a credit to his honour that he did so). This chap had initially been appointed due to his 'liberal' philosophy which was evident in his Board Decisions. With the recent Election of a Conservative Government, the need for a more Conservative approach to Decision Making was now called for.

When I worked for the Minister of Veterans Affairs, in the mid 1980s, we entered office at a time when a Commission had been struck to determine why decisions on Veterans' Disability Pensions were taking so long and were too often negatively decided. The first thing our Minister did was to shut down the Commission since he did not want to wait a year or more for its recommendations. He knew what needed to be done and his Philosophy of Speed and Generosity was soon absorbed by the GIC community. Within mere months, Veterans and their Representatives such as the Royal Canadian Legion noticed a vast improvement in the decision making process.

In recent years, another area of concern has arisen with respect to the the determination of who qualifies for Refugee Status. Simply stated, the process provides applicants with an end run around the formal immigration application process. When individuals are suffering true persecution, this end run is understandable. Too often though it is used by unscrupulous smugglers to defeat the true purpose of Canada's Refugee System. Under the Liberal Administration, the vast majority of GIC Decisions were favourable
to the Refugee Applicants even though it was conceded that only a minority were true Refugees. The Liberals were more focused on voter support from the ethnic communities.

Since the Election of the Conservatives, favourable decisions in Refugee Cases are now in the minority which is consistent with the view held by the average Canadian and, as I mentioned, is in keeping with the overwhelming consensus that most applicants are true Refugees (i.e. in danger of Persecution).


Finally, there is also a misconception out there that government appointees are not hard working - that their roles are both cushy and plum. Again, this is not true from my experience.




Given their background - hard and faithful work on behalf of a Party - the appointees for the most part are prepared to do what it takes to make a difference (i.e. they are already motivated). From the outside it may look plush, but in reality it has often meant disruption to the appointees and their families since in many cases they are obliged to uproot and move to a new city. Often their work entails writing decisions which are then subject to review by the Federal Court. Having been a Legal Advisor to a number of GICs I can tell you first hand that such writing is not an easy task.



Then there is the travel. It all sounds quite glamorous - being in different cities each week - living in nice hotels etc., and it is - for a week or two. After that it is a drudge. Living out of a suitcase and logging thousands of miles on plane soon loses its appeal.

Bottom-line; We are indebted to our Partisans and owe them a vote of thanks.

As I see it...

"Galagher"

The Nerve of the Have-Nots and Where is PEI on the Issue?

Ontario and Quebec are at Copenhagen this week where they have gone on record as opposing any subsidy on their part to assist Alberta in achieving carbon reduction.

The nerve!!

To begin with, what the Hell are Provinces doing at Copenhagen? International Forums are State and not a Provincial matters; a Country needs to speak with one voice - not three.

Anyway, back to the issue of these two ingrates.

Over past decades Quebec has benefited mightily from the huge transfer payments it receives from Alberta.

Ontario, as Canada's manufacturer, too has benefited greatly by selling its finished goods to the West. Now, ironically, it too may start to receive Western Transfer Monies as a result of its new Have not status. Plus, where does Ontario expect to receive its future Oil supplies?

Where is the equity - the fairness in their self-serving stance?

If Quebec had oil, as opposed to water power, you can bet your bottom dollar that they would oppose any attempt by the ROC to impose carbon caps. Such an issue alone would likely be enough to see Separation finally come about.

It may just have this effect for Alberta - and perhaps Saskatchewan. While the numbers favouring separation have been low in the West, compared to those in Quebec, this issue, if left unchecked, is likely to spike those numbers considerably. And for the West - Separation will be no Bluff.

In the interim, it will certainly help the Wild Rose Party become the next Provincial Government.

As Ralph Klein, a great Canadian so aptly said a few years back, 'let the Eastern Bastards freeze in the Dark'.

We deserve no less.

As I see it...

"Galagher"

OBAMA'S Address at West Point

About a week ago, President Obama gave a speech at West Point wherein he increased the US troop strength in Afghanistan by 30,000. Interestingly, they are to be deployed in the Kandahar District where our soldiers have been fighting due to the fact that it is the most dangerous spot in all of Afghanistan. Canadian Soldiers deserve quite a pat on the back for single-handedly keeping that area under control awaiting American reinforcements.

Anyway, I digress.

I thought his speech deserved an A (ie 8/10) but was surprised by the comments from both sides of the debate in America. The Right roundly condemned it for being unlike FDR - ie "a Day that will live in Infamy' and not Churchillian enough (ie) "we will fight them on the beaches.."

But Obama was not reeling from an attack or preparing the nation for imminent invasion - he was only adding 30,000 fresh troops to the mix.

The Left, in turn, cried 'sellout' and compared Obama with George W and his Surge in Iraq. But Afghanistan is not Iraq. The attacks on the Trade Buildings were planned and originated from Afghanistan.

My 'A' for the speech was based on the fact that Obama had to walk a tight rope between these two camps and the fact that he upset them both tells me he succeeded. He authorized the additional troops, requested by his Commanders in the field and he set an arbitrary timetable to get out which he hoped would appeal to his leftist base.

Having said that, both sides arguments have some merit. First, the Surge worked wonders for the Republicans in Iraq and hopefully it will do the same this time. No guarantees though.

Second - setting the arbitrary timetable puts the Afghan Administration on notice that they will soon have to take care of their own security - as it should be. It also puts NATO on notice that the US is not going to continue to spend vast sums of money and blood when most Member Countries sit back with their feet up.

As I have said before it is no longer just a philosophical discussion - the USA is going broke. With Trillions in debt, they simply can no longer afford to play the World Policeman as much as they and we may like for them to do just that.

I have serious concerns re President Obama. I have yet to figure the guy out but do know that he is spending too much and building too great a government empire.

What I do know is that I liked his speech and think it worthy of an 'A'.

As I see it...

"Galagher"

Taliban Prisoners...Peter MacKay

Note: below I am critical of Peter MacKay for allegedly saying Richard Colvin was a lackey of the Taliban. The Press had widely reported that he had said just that but MacKay has come out and denied it. With the little regard I have for our leftist Press, I will take MacKay's word any day... That said, I still think his overall criticism of a public servant was not becoming a Minister of the Crown. Unless it is a criminal act or some wantoned disregard of duty, He and Harper should leave criticisms to a public servant's senior managers.

A tempest in a teapot.

Iggnatieff and the Liberal Press believe they have Defence Minister MacKay 'on the ropes' over the Detainee / Torture Issue. Both are simply deluding themselves.

The fact is, Canadians really don't give a damn if heartless murderers are roughed up a bit in detention.

More to the point, if the Defence Brass only became aware of one case as of yesterday, how does that implicate MacKay in a cover-up? Where do Iggy and the Press expect MacKay to get his information from - the Taliban?

Iggnatief has a habit of getting on the wrong horse at the right time and I believe he has done it again. Moreover, I cannot see this issue surviving the Christmas break since Liberal MPs are likely to get an earful from their constituents - in support of Mackay - over that period.

MacKay though is not without criticism; his over the top attack on Ambassador Richard Colvin was not called for. I too question Colvin's motivation in all of this but for MacKay to suggest he was being a lackey of the Taliban was a bit much.

That brings me to recent speculation that there will be a small Cabinet Shuffle over Christmas.

The feeling is that MacKay will be transferred out of Defence.

If I was MacKay, I would not fight that move - not because of the 'Colvins' of this Country, but because the real Defence Minister is none other than Stephen Harper himself.

I get the sense that there is no love lost between the two - this despite the fact that Harper could never have become Leader of the new Conservative Party without Peter's help. Simply stated, he is not likely to advance in the current situation. Plus he has already had his shot at Leadership when he led the Progressive Conservative Party before its amalgamation with Reform.

Peter MacKay needs to look ahead - to his next step. And might I suggest a Senate appointment. This coming from me - a staunch opponent of everything Senate.

I make this suggestion though not in what MacKay could add to this tired old Institution, but rather to what he could do for the Conservatives outside its stifling walls. He could become the true and lasting God Father for Atlantic Canada in the same way in which the wily old Senator Allan MacEachen performed this role for the Liberals.

If I was Harper I would refrain from making such an appointment until right after the next Election but circumstances could force his hand sooner.

As I see it...

"Galagher"

Somethings Rotten In the State of Denmark

Global Warming is finally beginning to smell..

I have always had trouble believing that CO2 - a colourless, odorless gas used in photosynthesis, poses a threat to the world's climate.

That said, I view myself as an environmentalist since I am - and I expect you are - opposed to pollution of any type. After all, the world we live in is the only one we have and we would like to pass it on to our children and our children's children in as pristine of condition as possible.

For some reason though the left has seized on CO2 as being the bad guy in it all. I can see why Al Gore has done so - he of many mansions, has been able to increase his wealth tenfold due to this scam.

But what of the rest? Where is their concern when it comes to dirty air and water? Why do they not take a better look at the hidden contents of the food and water we drink and eat?

Why should trillions of dollars be transferred to so-called underdeveloped countries (I say "so-called" since China falls under that category) to reduce their CO2 emissions when we know well that this is unlikely to happen?

Would these trillions not be better spent providing food, medical and housing assistance to the world's poor and education for their children? It is a scandal that the United Nations has been in existence for over 60 years and these terrible issues remain unresolved. But the UN finds time to criticize Israel for everything under the sun!

As a Libertarian I see government's role to be a very limited one. But there is one important area where they can be useful and that is in the area of R&D. Working in conjunction with Industry and Universities - Governments can spearhead research in the area of Environmental Protection. We know that the burning of fossil fuels is not Environmentally friendly - so we desperately need to find viable alternatives and government is best placed to do that.

Much has been done in this area but so much more remains before Western Civilization can ween itself off fossil fuels. It is too bad that the oil crisis of the 1970s was allowed to pass without a serious attempt to find alternative power sources. We have lost 40 years due to this inaction.

The Left would have us in the West live in tents while the Rest of the World continues to pump CO2 into the atmosphere in ever increasing amounts.

It won't happen. The instinct for our survival is just too strong.

Let's though work together and clean up all Pollution - CO2 included, in a structured and reasoned fashion.

In the meantime, monies for transfer to the Underdevelops should be targeted to ending poverty where it will do so much good.

As I see it...

"Galagher"