With all the year end prognostications I got to thinking - what would happen if a woman news anchor (Sandy), with no background in business - attempted to interview a seasoned financial guru (Mr. Dow Jones)?
Maybe it would go something like this:
I am pleased this evening to have as our guest Mr. Dow Jones who will share with us all his views on the economy for the coming year.
Mr. Jones thank you so much for joining us.
You are most welcome.
Let me begin by asking you generally what you see in store for us in 2011?
Well as a renowned Bear you can just imagine what I have to say so you won't be surprised if I tell you that I believe that currently we have an Ovobody Market.
Please proceed.
I am also a well known Contrarian so don't expect my comments to follow the crowd.
Be assured Mr. Jones that I do not harbour any such expectations. Now what precisely can our audience expect for next year in the markets?
We are going to see much of what has taken place in 2010 that is to say: flashing, one night stands, swaps and stripping.
Well Mr. Jones we are in polite society so I would ask you to please keep your comments civil.
Eh? There are certain things that as a Contrarian I am specifically looking for and that is such things as a Hot Waitress or Fools in the Shower.
I strongly suggest Mr. Jones that you keep your private life out of today's conversation. Now let's get back to our topic - what in particular will need to happen to see the markets advance in 2011?
Treponomics.
Treponomics?
Correct.
Will that tell us we are on the right path.
Yes and No.
Yes and No?
Correct.
Would you please expand on that.
Gladly. Yes Treponomics is the answer but it is a very slow process so it could take a number of years before we can gauge its success.
So we won't know for sure if it is working in 2011
Precisely not. But it must get started in 2011 to be effective so we will begin eventually to see improved EBITDA.
EBITDA?
Exactly.
Okay let me come at it from a different angle. Is there anything that could happen in 2011 that would tell you that things are likely to improve?
Of course there is - one could look for a Jennifer Lopez.
A Jennifer Lopez? What pray tell is that.
A nice Round Bottom of course.
Mr. Jones I will not warn you again.
Sandy I am beginning to see that you have not done sufficient Concepting.
There is no need to insult me Dow, I am doing my best, so let's just try to get through this - we have but a couple of minutes left. We hear alot about Index Trading do you have any favourites?
Two of my favourites are Paris Hilton and Lipstick.
Why am I not surprised. Any favourite Bonds?
I guess I would have to say the Chasity Bond.
Well given your other comments that does come as a surprise to me. Is there anything the ordinary investor can do to grown his or her Portfolio?
I would suggest a combination of Arbitrage and Forex. The financial world is getting smaller, so I would recommend to your viewing audience that these types of investments would be to their overall benefit.
Arbitrage and Forex?
Yes.
Are they listed on the Stock Markets.
Quite the sense of humour you have Sandy. In all seriousness though - for 2011 many businesses will have to adopt detailed Scalping Strategies.
Scalping Strategies? Like the Indians?
You are indeed refreshing Sandy but I do hope there are not too many Aboriginal Investors out there in your television audience.
Oh my. Let's conclude our interview with one final question Dow. Um, if there is one piece of advice you can leave our audience with - what would that be?
Buy low - Sell high.
Well that is certainly something we can all understand. Thank you so much. And perhaps Dow you could leave me your cell phone number in case I have any follow-up questions.
As I see it...
'Galagher'
Thursday, December 30, 2010
Wednesday, December 22, 2010
Something Good About The 60s...
The Emancipation of Women.
I have been oft critical about the 60s and how things seem to have down hill since then, but there is one trend that began then which has benefited our Society greatly and that is the coming out of women into main stream society.
More specifically, women began to join the workforce in great numbers with the result today that nearly 50% of our workforce is female.
This trend started in the 60s and accelerated with the high inflation of the 1970s. No longer could families be sustained on only one pay cheque.
There was a downside and that was the lack of women staying at home and the social repercussions it caused and continues to cause today to our children, but in the sense of fairness, a woman should not be expected to sacrifice herself for others - even her own children.
The greater benefit though has been to Society generally since to deny half of the population access, is to ensure that Society only operates at 50 % capacity.
We are what we are today - one of the world's leading countries - due to the fact that we have utilized the skills and abilities of 100% of our citizens. This in stark contrast to those world nations that deny women their rightful place in society and those countries suffer accordingly.
Indeed, in the liberated world, Women have in many cases surpassed their Male Counterparts - take Education for example where women now out number males in post graduate studies - often by large per centages. It provides us Males with an incentive to pull up our socks and try harder.
So as much as I have been critical of developments dating back to the 60s this is one very important area where we have all greatly benefited.
As I see it...
'Galagher'
I have been oft critical about the 60s and how things seem to have down hill since then, but there is one trend that began then which has benefited our Society greatly and that is the coming out of women into main stream society.
More specifically, women began to join the workforce in great numbers with the result today that nearly 50% of our workforce is female.
This trend started in the 60s and accelerated with the high inflation of the 1970s. No longer could families be sustained on only one pay cheque.
There was a downside and that was the lack of women staying at home and the social repercussions it caused and continues to cause today to our children, but in the sense of fairness, a woman should not be expected to sacrifice herself for others - even her own children.
The greater benefit though has been to Society generally since to deny half of the population access, is to ensure that Society only operates at 50 % capacity.
We are what we are today - one of the world's leading countries - due to the fact that we have utilized the skills and abilities of 100% of our citizens. This in stark contrast to those world nations that deny women their rightful place in society and those countries suffer accordingly.
Indeed, in the liberated world, Women have in many cases surpassed their Male Counterparts - take Education for example where women now out number males in post graduate studies - often by large per centages. It provides us Males with an incentive to pull up our socks and try harder.
So as much as I have been critical of developments dating back to the 60s this is one very important area where we have all greatly benefited.
As I see it...
'Galagher'
Tuesday, December 21, 2010
The Green Energy Fiasco...
Ontario Hydro Users are looking at a doubling and tripling of their monthly hydro bills and have only Dolton McGuinty and his Green Energy Advisors to blame.
Daily calls come into local talk radio attesting to the fact that some Hydro Subscribers are wearing winter clothing inside and burning candles in a desperate bid to keep warm and to keep some lights on.
All the while a select few are receiving 10 x their energy costs back in rebates for providing wind and solar power.
And now we learn that cheap electric power has been available all along to Ontario from neighbouring Quebec and Manitoba. Six (6) cents per kilowatt hour and with no need to upgrade the current grid.
McGuinty's mistakes are too numerous to list but this one tops them all. Tens of billions of dollars have been and will continue to be wasted with his poorly thought out Energy Programme.
The sooner he and his Spendthrift Government is gone - the better.
That said, I look forward to hear what the Provincial Tory and NDP leaders have to say on this important subject.
Ontario Hydro has been mismanaged for the past 30 years and more. Senior Management is grossly overpaid and Union Contracts are out of control.
Privatization is the answer and cheaper sources of clean energy the goal.
As I see it....
'Galagher'
Daily calls come into local talk radio attesting to the fact that some Hydro Subscribers are wearing winter clothing inside and burning candles in a desperate bid to keep warm and to keep some lights on.
All the while a select few are receiving 10 x their energy costs back in rebates for providing wind and solar power.
And now we learn that cheap electric power has been available all along to Ontario from neighbouring Quebec and Manitoba. Six (6) cents per kilowatt hour and with no need to upgrade the current grid.
McGuinty's mistakes are too numerous to list but this one tops them all. Tens of billions of dollars have been and will continue to be wasted with his poorly thought out Energy Programme.
The sooner he and his Spendthrift Government is gone - the better.
That said, I look forward to hear what the Provincial Tory and NDP leaders have to say on this important subject.
Ontario Hydro has been mismanaged for the past 30 years and more. Senior Management is grossly overpaid and Union Contracts are out of control.
Privatization is the answer and cheaper sources of clean energy the goal.
As I see it....
'Galagher'
Friday, December 10, 2010
Some more Quickies...
First Wikileaks:
More "top secret" e-mails revealed. For example, China apparently has no way to accurately determine its annual GDP. Since the world's monetary system is based on how National GDPs are doing I am sure that such information will be invaluable to the business community. Score another one for Wikileaks.
Speaking of China - we are also told that it is supplying Iran with armaments. Nice to know.
I think much of what Wikileaks is all about is that Governments simply do not have much trust in their own citizens.
Haiti:
Continues to fall apart. Nothing much has been done toward reconstruction since their major earthquake and now thousands are dying from drinking tainted water.
And to top it off, their recent Election has resulted in riots in the streets.
You may recall in my Blog, at the time of their Quake, I said the only cure for Haiti is a United Nations (read USA / Canada) enforced Martial Law for at least 20 years to allow for the education of a knowledgeable and vibrant Middle Class. I also pointed out then that this would not happen and not surprising then, Haiti continues to suffer.
Ontario Landowners:
The head of the Ontario Landowners - Jack McLaren, tried to unseat Norm Sterling's Riding Association last week. They came within 150 votes of doing so and of note, 150 McLaren's supporters were denied the right to cast a ballot. Smell a rat?
McLaren is trying to bring the US Tea Party to Ontario and just like in the States - probably their greatest opponent is the Right of Centre Party - the Tories in Ontario and the Republican Party in the States. I suspect that it is not over yet for McLaren since his next battle will be taking aim at Sterling in next year's Nomination Meeting.
It is certainly not over for Tea Partyers encroaching into Canadian Politics. Hopefully the days of Tweedle Dum and Tweedle Dee Politics will soon come to an end. We simply cannot afford ($$$) much of the same too much longer.
Students Riot in England:
Charles and Camilla shaken up.
I deplore this type of action but I also am saddened by their Government's move to triple the University Tuitions to $15,000 per year. This coming from the guy who wants to see our governmental budgets balanced and taxes dramatically reduced.
But there are some things that simply cannot cost more and one of those is Education. We in this world are now firmly
in the Knowledge Age. Our future welfare is now tied to how our students perform more than ever. Students here in Canada are currently graduating with debt loads of $50 k and more. Imagine what would happen if our Tuitions were tripled?
Ottawa Policing:
I am getting tired of the excuses being made for the Police re those recently released videos. The same thing happened when the poor chap was tasered at the Vancouver Airport by the RCMP. Videos don't lie and those responsible should be cashiered and charged as soon as the films came to light. This from a fellow who in most cases supports the police.
As I see it..
'Galagher'
More "top secret" e-mails revealed. For example, China apparently has no way to accurately determine its annual GDP. Since the world's monetary system is based on how National GDPs are doing I am sure that such information will be invaluable to the business community. Score another one for Wikileaks.
Speaking of China - we are also told that it is supplying Iran with armaments. Nice to know.
I think much of what Wikileaks is all about is that Governments simply do not have much trust in their own citizens.
Haiti:
Continues to fall apart. Nothing much has been done toward reconstruction since their major earthquake and now thousands are dying from drinking tainted water.
And to top it off, their recent Election has resulted in riots in the streets.
You may recall in my Blog, at the time of their Quake, I said the only cure for Haiti is a United Nations (read USA / Canada) enforced Martial Law for at least 20 years to allow for the education of a knowledgeable and vibrant Middle Class. I also pointed out then that this would not happen and not surprising then, Haiti continues to suffer.
Ontario Landowners:
The head of the Ontario Landowners - Jack McLaren, tried to unseat Norm Sterling's Riding Association last week. They came within 150 votes of doing so and of note, 150 McLaren's supporters were denied the right to cast a ballot. Smell a rat?
McLaren is trying to bring the US Tea Party to Ontario and just like in the States - probably their greatest opponent is the Right of Centre Party - the Tories in Ontario and the Republican Party in the States. I suspect that it is not over yet for McLaren since his next battle will be taking aim at Sterling in next year's Nomination Meeting.
It is certainly not over for Tea Partyers encroaching into Canadian Politics. Hopefully the days of Tweedle Dum and Tweedle Dee Politics will soon come to an end. We simply cannot afford ($$$) much of the same too much longer.
Students Riot in England:
Charles and Camilla shaken up.
I deplore this type of action but I also am saddened by their Government's move to triple the University Tuitions to $15,000 per year. This coming from the guy who wants to see our governmental budgets balanced and taxes dramatically reduced.
But there are some things that simply cannot cost more and one of those is Education. We in this world are now firmly
in the Knowledge Age. Our future welfare is now tied to how our students perform more than ever. Students here in Canada are currently graduating with debt loads of $50 k and more. Imagine what would happen if our Tuitions were tripled?
Ottawa Policing:
I am getting tired of the excuses being made for the Police re those recently released videos. The same thing happened when the poor chap was tasered at the Vancouver Airport by the RCMP. Videos don't lie and those responsible should be cashiered and charged as soon as the films came to light. This from a fellow who in most cases supports the police.
As I see it..
'Galagher'
Sunday, December 5, 2010
Wikileaks...
My Contrarian View.
As you may know by now, I do not tend to follow the crowd; chalk it up to the Libertarian in me.
Same goes for my thoughts on Wikileaks; I find them refreshing.
Well maybe "refreshing" is going overboard, but in truth I get a kick out of them.
Most - should I say virtually all reports I have read, be they from the Left or the Right, are in high dungeon about them and indeed several are literally calling for the Head of Wikileaks.
Tsk Tsk - I say bring it on. A little candid exposure concerning what our respective Ambassadorial Communities are up to is more helpful than harmful and provides for some unexpected candour and openness albeit involuntarily.
And what I have read so far chiefly consists of a series of derogatory comments about this Leader or That. All of which have been quite amusing and yet quite consistent with the man on the street's view.
The Leaks have also served another useful function - they have shown America's Diplomatic Communications to be - well - 'Leaky', and if Wikileaks can get it hands on these communications so can others with less friendly hands.
But for the moment we can read and enjoy what our respective governing classes think of each other. And it is not pretty.
Openness and Candor in Societies though can only serve to educate the people which in turn allows them to choose more wisely come Election Time. If it takes Wikileaks to help to this process along - so be it.
That said, I do not support the leakage of information that puts individuals' lives at risk as say in the case of operatives in the field but so far I have neither heard nor read of such happening here. Wikileaks would be wise to self censure such if that type of information came its way.
So put me down as one of its few current supporters.
As I see it..
'Galagher'
As you may know by now, I do not tend to follow the crowd; chalk it up to the Libertarian in me.
Same goes for my thoughts on Wikileaks; I find them refreshing.
Well maybe "refreshing" is going overboard, but in truth I get a kick out of them.
Most - should I say virtually all reports I have read, be they from the Left or the Right, are in high dungeon about them and indeed several are literally calling for the Head of Wikileaks.
Tsk Tsk - I say bring it on. A little candid exposure concerning what our respective Ambassadorial Communities are up to is more helpful than harmful and provides for some unexpected candour and openness albeit involuntarily.
And what I have read so far chiefly consists of a series of derogatory comments about this Leader or That. All of which have been quite amusing and yet quite consistent with the man on the street's view.
The Leaks have also served another useful function - they have shown America's Diplomatic Communications to be - well - 'Leaky', and if Wikileaks can get it hands on these communications so can others with less friendly hands.
But for the moment we can read and enjoy what our respective governing classes think of each other. And it is not pretty.
Openness and Candor in Societies though can only serve to educate the people which in turn allows them to choose more wisely come Election Time. If it takes Wikileaks to help to this process along - so be it.
That said, I do not support the leakage of information that puts individuals' lives at risk as say in the case of operatives in the field but so far I have neither heard nor read of such happening here. Wikileaks would be wise to self censure such if that type of information came its way.
So put me down as one of its few current supporters.
As I see it..
'Galagher'
Sunday, November 7, 2010
The Fight for America...
But First - David Warren.
David Warren as some of you will know is probably the only right of centre columnist that the Ottawa Citizens newspaper has on staff.
I usually agree with the content of his articles but the other day agreed with part - but not all.
Mr. Warren was speaking about the effect of the Tea Party in the recent US Congressional Elections and concluded that the overall effect was but marginal.
He broke the US Electorate down into 3 categories - Tea Partyers (Republicans) on the right - 40%; Democrats on the Left- 40% and Independents in the middle - 20%.
In that regard he is basically in cinq with my earlier Blog Analysis that the US of A is split right down the middle - %50% Conservative and 50% Liberal.
Be that as it may.
Warren goes on to conclude that in this Election the Tea Partyers were motivated to get out and vote and brought sufficient numbers of Independents along with them. And this was coupled by the "fact" - in Warren's opinion that the Democrats were demoralized and did not come out to vote in big numbers.
He suggests that next time - in the 2012 Presidential Elections this could easily reverse itself with the Democrats coming out on top.
In essence then - nothing has really changed in regard to the American Political Landscape. The Pendulum has swung a bit to the right this time but the overall numbers have remained unchanged - 40% Republican; 40% Democrat; and 20% Independent.
I agree with part of his thesis - i.e. the overall numbers have indeed remained the same.
Where I disagree is that I see the American Political Landscape has changed big time.
Where once the 40% on the Right represented the "silent majority" they now are activated and motivated to demand change. They see their once great country in a downward spiral and are prepared to at last get involved to try to reverse this trend.
In other words - the Right is finally engaging the battle.
This is a very major development and is entirely lost in David Warren's Assessment.
At this early stage, I do not know if the Right will be successful in its battle but I am assured that one will be fought vigourously to the end.
I also know that if they are not successful the future for the States and for Western Democracies will be a bleak one.
More on that in my next Blog.
As I see it...
'Galagher'
David Warren as some of you will know is probably the only right of centre columnist that the Ottawa Citizens newspaper has on staff.
I usually agree with the content of his articles but the other day agreed with part - but not all.
Mr. Warren was speaking about the effect of the Tea Party in the recent US Congressional Elections and concluded that the overall effect was but marginal.
He broke the US Electorate down into 3 categories - Tea Partyers (Republicans) on the right - 40%; Democrats on the Left- 40% and Independents in the middle - 20%.
In that regard he is basically in cinq with my earlier Blog Analysis that the US of A is split right down the middle - %50% Conservative and 50% Liberal.
Be that as it may.
Warren goes on to conclude that in this Election the Tea Partyers were motivated to get out and vote and brought sufficient numbers of Independents along with them. And this was coupled by the "fact" - in Warren's opinion that the Democrats were demoralized and did not come out to vote in big numbers.
He suggests that next time - in the 2012 Presidential Elections this could easily reverse itself with the Democrats coming out on top.
In essence then - nothing has really changed in regard to the American Political Landscape. The Pendulum has swung a bit to the right this time but the overall numbers have remained unchanged - 40% Republican; 40% Democrat; and 20% Independent.
I agree with part of his thesis - i.e. the overall numbers have indeed remained the same.
Where I disagree is that I see the American Political Landscape has changed big time.
Where once the 40% on the Right represented the "silent majority" they now are activated and motivated to demand change. They see their once great country in a downward spiral and are prepared to at last get involved to try to reverse this trend.
In other words - the Right is finally engaging the battle.
This is a very major development and is entirely lost in David Warren's Assessment.
At this early stage, I do not know if the Right will be successful in its battle but I am assured that one will be fought vigourously to the end.
I also know that if they are not successful the future for the States and for Western Democracies will be a bleak one.
More on that in my next Blog.
As I see it...
'Galagher'
SMOKE & MIRRORS...
Something on the lighter side before I return to heavy..
This from one of my loyalist readers:
It is a slow day in the small Saskatchewan town of Pumphandle and the streets are deserted. Times are tough; everybody is in debt and living on credit.
A Tourist visiting the area drives through town and stops at the Motel, and lays a $100 bill on the desk saying he wants to inspect the rooms upstairs to pick one for the night.
As soon as he walks upstairs, the motel owner grabs the bill and runs next door to pay his debt to the Butcher.
The Butcher takes the $100 and runs down street to retire his debt to the Pig Farmer,
The Pig Farmer takes the $100 and pays off his bill at the Co-op.
The Guy at the Co-op takes the $100 and pays his debt to the Local Prostitute who has been facing hard times and has had to offer her "services" on credit.
The Prostitute rushes to the Motel to pay off her Room Bills.
The Motel Operator places the $100 Bill back on the Counter so the Traveler will not suspect anything.
At that Moment the Traveler comes down and states that the Rooms are Not Satisfactory and picks up his $100 and leaves.
No one produced anything. No one earned anything. However the who Town is now Out of Debt and looks to the Future with more Optimism.
And that Ladies and Gentlemen is how a Stimulus Package Works.
MAKES YOUR HEAD SWIM... Does it not?
On reflection, I do not know if this is how a Stimulus Package Works but it does seem to be how a Bartering System would work.
Given the fall of the US Dollar, the rise of Gold and the increase in Taxes, it may be something that will come back into vogue.
As I see it...
'Galagher'
This from one of my loyalist readers:
It is a slow day in the small Saskatchewan town of Pumphandle and the streets are deserted. Times are tough; everybody is in debt and living on credit.
A Tourist visiting the area drives through town and stops at the Motel, and lays a $100 bill on the desk saying he wants to inspect the rooms upstairs to pick one for the night.
As soon as he walks upstairs, the motel owner grabs the bill and runs next door to pay his debt to the Butcher.
The Butcher takes the $100 and runs down street to retire his debt to the Pig Farmer,
The Pig Farmer takes the $100 and pays off his bill at the Co-op.
The Guy at the Co-op takes the $100 and pays his debt to the Local Prostitute who has been facing hard times and has had to offer her "services" on credit.
The Prostitute rushes to the Motel to pay off her Room Bills.
The Motel Operator places the $100 Bill back on the Counter so the Traveler will not suspect anything.
At that Moment the Traveler comes down and states that the Rooms are Not Satisfactory and picks up his $100 and leaves.
No one produced anything. No one earned anything. However the who Town is now Out of Debt and looks to the Future with more Optimism.
And that Ladies and Gentlemen is how a Stimulus Package Works.
MAKES YOUR HEAD SWIM... Does it not?
On reflection, I do not know if this is how a Stimulus Package Works but it does seem to be how a Bartering System would work.
Given the fall of the US Dollar, the rise of Gold and the increase in Taxes, it may be something that will come back into vogue.
As I see it...
'Galagher'
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