+Pt 2 … My Specific Predictions for 2015

So let’s now review what I said specifically was likely to happen in 2015.  Again my self-graded comments appear in Bold Italics at the end of each major heading:
Ottawa
The municipal election is over so not too many entrails to paw over.
Gang Shootings are the big issue though – nearly 1 per week – an all time high last year and likely to continue for 2015. 
The Police say that if only they assign more officers to their guns and gang unit – the problem will lessen but as one distinguished defence lawyer said – to double down on what has not worked in the past will only insure continued failure in the future and he is correct.
So I predict the problem will persist.  I do have a suggestion for the City and the Police on how they should really be dealing with Gangs, guns et al and that will be the subject of one of my very next blogs.    A – in 2014 there were 47 shootings; as of the end of 2015 there were a couple less. So whatever the Guns and Gangs Unit is doing continues not to work.
Ontario
Again the election has passed so little to comment on.
And no doubt you are getting tired of my saying this is Ontario’s worst government in history but sadly I truly believe it and thus nothing of substance will likely improve in 2015.  Again not a prediction but a statement of fact.
One of the only predictions I will make is in regard to May’s Tory Leadership Vote – Christine Elliott will win but she would not be my pick.  With Elliott in place, Ontario will have 2 liberal parties – the Tories and the NDP and one NDP Party – aka the Liberals. 
I think the group of candidates is wanting but my choice from this meagre list would be Monte McNaughton if for no other reason than he is the only candidate of the 5 or 6 to come out strongly against Wynne’s pornographic sex education plan for our young public schoolers.
The Tories should have used this time to lick their wounds – give the Grits a chance to self destroy and beat the bushes for some really good candidates – John Baird anyone?
The only other prediction I will make in regard to Ontario is with respect to our economy.  With the drop in oil and the drop in our dollar – economic activity will pick up – (it cannot get any lower given the Grits’ devastating policies that have caused business to flee the Province). It will not though be as robust as it should otherwise be and it will not enable the province to escape its ‘have-not’ status.
C
– Brown, the only other candidate left running other than Elliott, won the PC Leadership and I voted for him but so far am not impressed . The Tories, like their federal counterparts should have waited to hold their Leadership Convention until such time as they had some real heavies available to run.
-  Over this past year, Oil and our Buck continued their steep decline but so far this has not had much of a positive effect on Ontario’s economy  i.e. employment growth since Nov. 2014 is a measely .05% so it would appear that the Province’s Green Energy Fiasco has just caused too much damage to business.
Canada
The big news here will be the upcoming Election.
I believe Harper will call it before the Duffy Trial this coming April.  
If he does not call it and awaits the statutory date in October I think there is a very good chance Harper will not even be at the helm then.  I will explain in a moment. 
By all accounts given that two-thirds of Ontarians lean to the left, Harper et al should have no chance of forming the next government.  That said, I predict he will win and by a slight majority.  I say this because neither the Dippers nor the Liberals have staked out policies that resonate with the voters and this coupled with my prediction of a March election should be enough to carry the Tories to victory. 
If the election is in the Fall, the dirt that comes out of the Duffy trial will plaster the Prime Minister and he will be lucky to personally survive let alone win an election.  I say that because I believe he mislead the public by saying he had no idea that his Chief of Staff paid out $90k to Duffy and if he did, it will all come out at the trial. 
The Keystone Pipeline will not get the okay from the little man’s in the white house.  Congress will need a two thirds vote to over-ride his veto and the chances of this happening over the course of this new year are about 50/50 and accordingly does not count as a prediction.
Oil will rebound this year – it cannot get much lower.
The Feds will have to slash even more in staffing and programs to keep its budget balanced – many because of the lost oil revenue. 
Harper will use his about to be introduced Bill to fight terrorism as an excuse to go the public early – i.e. an Election in March. 
Another C
Harper did not go to the polls in March as I had predicted, but had he done so, I fully believe he would have won. 
I was correct in saying that Obama would finally announce that the Keystone Pipeline would not be approved by his Adminsitration. 
I was wrong in thinking oil would recover and civil service employment declined only modestly.  It will now go into a period of growth under our new Liberal administration.
The World
Russia – Putin is wounded – e.g. falling oil prices is causing havoc to the Russian economy and thus he is more dangerous than ever.  That said, I think 2015 will see Russia withdraw back into its borders primarily because NATO has shown at last that it is  prepared to stand and fight him.
ISIS – too will continue to decline (but by no means disappear) in importance throughout the middle east - again because the West has called its bluff especially with its very successful air campaign.
The EBOLA scourge will finally come under control as Western Countries like Canada send the needed resources to fight it.
Greece will leave the EU with Germany’s blessings.
Iran will not be stopped in its ongoing efforts to develop and establish a delivery system for the Atomic Bomb.
Israel -  Netanyahu will win this coming March’s election.  His popularity is being given a big boost by the region’s terrorists.
Israel will sadly not though launch an attack against Iran despite Obama’s continued dithering.
UK – Cameron will win the May 17 General Election.  Like Netanyahu – he is being helped by the greater aggression on the part of terrorists.
So that’s it – otherwise 2015 will be business as usual – terrorists will continue to terrorize – innocents suffer, the USA will dither, China bully, the world’s economies will languish although cheaper oil will help somewhat.
2015 will be a replay of last year.
A – the only prediction that did not come to pass was Greece not leaving the EU otherwise I believe I was quite accurate.  You might argue that Russia did not retreat in Eastern Europe but from my perspective it did and did so only because NATO finally got involved.  It was quite different thing in Syria where Russia took the initiative but not because of NATO rather because the USA under its do nothing Prez continued to do nothing.   Good thing I am focusing on international matters.
Overall mark?  B or B- .  You decide.
As I see it…
‘K.D. Galagher’

My Prognostications for 2015… Pt. 1

 

Some of you may recall that I came at this a little differently at the beginning of 2015 – first a look at the coming year generally and then followed with more concrete predictions.

So first, my generalizations with my self grade in Bold Italics:

1. International … (grade A+)

Iran remains the world’s number one issue as the US continues to diddle around, making no significant attempt to force Iran to roll back its atomic program.  When Iran is able to ‘deliver’ its bombs all bets are off for peace in our time.

Russia will continue to threaten the former USSR nations.  With the drop in Oil / the Ruble, Putin is a wounded bear and is more dangerous than ever.

ISSIS will remain the beasts they are throughout Iraq and Syria.

Terrorists will continue to stalk the jungles of Africa preying on the innocent – mostly girls and young women.

The fires of the Middle East will continue to burn brightly.

Europe will continue to struggle economically.

The US will continue to be led by its most inept President in its history and since he cannot seek re-election – he is at his most dangerous.

Another $ Trillion will be added to the US debt.  The Government is on life lines.

Black militancy will continue to threaten.

International foes will continue to not fear the States and friends will continue to realize that they can no longer depend on America as it once did.

2.  National … (grade B – solely for my erroneous prediction of a minority government but in truth, this outcome was not predictable until the dying days of the October never ending campaign)

Canada will face an election this year which at this point will likely end in minority government.

The plunge in the value of oil will severely dampen the economies of Alberta, Saskatchewan and British Columbia and as such will put pressure on Canada’s ability to balance its budget.  It will also put a strain on the equalization program.

We will continue to be involved militarily throughout Eastern Europe and the Middle East.

Pipeline construction will continue to idle.

3.  Ontario ….  A

Will continue to be governed by the worst government in its history – the McGuinty / Wynne Regime.

Our debt will continue to rise with no balancing of the budget in sight.

Public Service Unions will finally start to be told ‘no’ or perhaps ‘maybe’ but it will be at the margins and will have little effect on the ill state of the Province’s finances.

Green Energy will continue to get the green light despite the fact that our Auditor General just told us that since the Grits came to power, Ontarians have paid $50 Billion more for hydro than we should have.

Our Health and Education Systems will continue in decline.

4.   Municipal …A

Ottawa will continue to spend too much on its operations, too much of it is wasted on too many expensive employees and too many pet projects not aligned with the city’s core service responsibilities.

The biggest issue in that regard is with respect to garbage collection as residents continue to be subjected to only twice monthly pick up of real garbage.

Gang Shootings which reached a record level last year, will continue unabated.

The above are not predictions as much as they are just statements of fact - that is to say it is just a rehash of how things were last year and will continue to be in 2015. It takes no genius to identify them.

Note:  Overall I place my mark at an A – but in truth, generalizations are much easier to make than are specific predictions which follow in my next Blog.  Wish now though that I had stuck with just doing generalizations. G

As I see it …

‘K.D. Galagher’

VLAD PUTIN AND THE DONALD …

 

BOSOM BUDDIES.

This past week we were exposed to these two rhapsodizing about one another.

It was to gag.

Putin has become a petty little dictator who, as a former officer of the infamous KGB, is only interested in restoring the USSR.

And, he let’s nothing stand in his way to see this accomplished.

While here in Ottawa plans are going forward to build a public momument to the memory of the Victims of Communism.

I have said repeatedly that if I was an American, I would only vote for Donald Trump if it came down to him against Hillary Clinton; I have now changed my mind – I would no longer vote for Trump even under that circumstance.

But please realize, this does not mean I would now vote for Hillary since I cannot see myself going so low.  Rather I would probably just spoil my ballot.

I stand by my initial assessment that Trump’s candidacy has been good not only for the Republicans but indeed for all of America.

He has singularly forced Americans to address important issues that they would otherwise just like to avoid – e.g a porous Southern Border and just as importantly, he has fired back mercilessly at the Self-Serving Politically Correct.

It has been an absolute joy to watch.

But the time has come to say goodbye to The Donald. (I suspect many of you in Russia would like to do the same to Vlad Putin).

In Trump’s case it will not be that easy since he holds quite a lead over his many rivals but I am hopeful that even his ardent supporters are beginning to have doubts with his recent complimentary comments about Putin and his proposal to deny all Muslims entry into the US.

And hopefully this will translate into a win for Marco Rubio which I will now extend to Carly Fiorina – one tough, knowledgeable broad.

As I see it…*

‘K.D. Galagher’

*Note:  My next two blogs will deal with my predictions for this year about to end - 2015

 

Donald Trump and The Listeners

One of my favourite poems in high-school was Walter de la Mare’s ‘The Listeners’ and it comes to mind when I read about Trump’s critics going hysterical every time he supposedly makes a campaign-ending statement.

“Is there anybody there?” asked the Traveller

“But only a host of phantom listeners … that dwelt in the house .. stood listening in the quiet of the moonlight”.

“Tell them I came, and no one answered, that I kept my word, he said.”

“They heard his foot upon the stirrup, and the sound of iron on the stone, and how the silence surged softly backward when the plunging hoofs were gone”.

                             ------

Unlike The Listeners in de la Mare’s poem, Trump’s Listeners are neither anonymous nor do they hide in the shadows; his Listeners are well known as they impatiently watch & wait for him to fatally slip up; their eyes focus in on him like an entomologist’s microscope on a bug.

When a perceived ‘slip’ comes – The Listeners’ eyes bulge in contrived shock and mocked outrage … they turn to one another, speaking in gleeful tongues, high fiving, trying to convince one another that this time Trump has gone too far and will not recover.

But then come the new polls showing once again that Trump’s popularity continues to rise.

And it’s back to the microscope awaiting his next pronouncement which will surely result in his undoing.

Why are the Left and indeed many Insiders on the Right aghast at The Donald’s success?

The major reason I believe is that he is their antithesis; they who like to tell others how to live and what to think cannot stand it when a ‘clown’ dares to respond to them in kind. 

And the ordinary Joe and Jane are sick and tired of these Elites, Politically Correct Politicians and a Left Biased Media lying to them day in and day out.

Indeed, ever since Obama’s Election in 2008 the average American has watched in utter disbelieve as their once powerful and proud Nation has descended into irrelevance.

Its allies no longer trust it, its enemies no longer fear it and to boot – its national debt will exceed $20 Trillion Dollars, (more than its total GDP) when Obama’s term ends in January of 2017.

So America is not only broke but is a shadow of its former self.  But the Movers and Shakers act as if everything is A-OK.

But of course everything is not okay:

• ‘Islamist Terrorists’ have declared war on America and yet the President cannot even bring himself to say who these Terrorists actually are while continuing to pretend they are just run of the mill criminals, bandits, and jv’ers.
• All the while its Southern US Border is a sieve.
• Guantanamo Inmates are cut loose to fight again.
• It has given Iran the right to build an Atomic Bomb at the end of 10 years – their stupidest decision yet.
• Followed closely with its buying into… or more appropriately… selling out to Climate Change Charlatans. So we go to War against a colourless, odourless gas used by plants for growth and the production of life-giving oxygen; a War wet hopefully lose.

And at every turn these self-styled Elites dismiss anyone who dares criticize them as racists, homophobes and the like.

In the face of this, Trump, has come along to poke these know-it- all-primadonnas in the eye.  And I am particularly incensed when these Bozos compare Donald Trump to Adolph Hitler.  Hitler, like Trump is an Egotist but the comparison ends there since Hitler was also a Psychopathic-Hater.

That said, as many of you know, I am not a Trump supporter - from the start, my preferred candidate has been and continues to be Marco Rubio and I still believe he will ultimately win out.

I am glad though that Trump has appeared on the scene to shake things up and get Americans focused on the really important issues – many of them set out above.*

As I see it…

‘K.D. Galagher’

* One issue that I did not specifically deal with above is with respect to Muslim Immigration. I would like to see a freeze on it until the War with the Islamic Terrorists is over.  On the other-hand, The Elites’ /The Politically Corrects’ attitude is ‘the more the merrier’. So for you, the Reader, I pose the following:

Why is it that in Muslim dominated Countries  Non-Muslim Minorities cannot be left to live their lives in peace?

THE COROLLARY -

Why would the West expect Muslim Immigrants to be able to live in harmony with others in their adopted countries?

Promises, Promises.

 

I know that I promised not to deal anymore with issues relating to our once proud…, now backward country known as Canada.

So I won’t.

Rather I will deal with a country similar to Canada – let’s call it Backwater Pays.

And let’s say the issue of the day relates to the reform of Backwater’s Senate.

That is to say, in the words of its Left Leaning Government – to make it more representative – more open, more respected and so on and so on ….

…You know, the usual Bull.

So that is the theory of the proposed reform – let’s see how it will work in practice:

The current Backwater Senate is composed of Hacks, Flacks and Ne’er-Do-Wells.

What the Government has promised to do in its recent Throne Speech is to create a Distinguished Panel consisting of Five (5) Distinguished Personages.  This Distinguished Group of 5 is task with identifying Distinguished Canadians for inclusion in the about to become Distinguished Senate.

You know the Order of Canada types – the Maude Barlows and the Margaret Atwoods.

Sounds great – does it not?

So you might ask what is wrong with this – aren’t Distinguished Canadians an big improvement over Hacks and Flacks?

Well no, not really.

You see Hacks and Flacks know they are Hacks and Flacks while Distinguished Canadians think they are… well… Distinguished.

As such, Hacks and Flacks will not unduly challenge legislation passed by the Elected House of Commons whereas Distinguished Canadian Senators are most likely to think they are at least equal to and even better than, the Commoner Member of Parliament elected by the Great Unwashed.

The only problem with this is that in a true Democracy the Peoples’ Representatives should be Elected and Accountable to them. 

In an Unelected and Non-Accountable Senate – the Distinguished Members are neither.  They would though fit quite nicely in with Communist China.

So, dear Reader, Backwater Pays is going from Bad to much Worse.

On a positive note – thanks to the Senate’s upper age limit of 75 years – we need not worry that either Maudy or Maggie will make the cut.  That is not to say they are not still totally Distinguished … only that they are Distinguished Elderlies and thus too olde for the cut and thrust of Senate Politics.

Oh, and one more thing – any similarity between Backwater Pays and the Country situated directly north of the US of A is purely coincidental.

As I see it…

‘K.D. Galagher’

It Pains Me So To Say…

 

Note: after this Blog – Donald Trump came out recommending that all Muslims be denied access to the Unite States for which he has been skewered from all sides  – my recommendation pertains only to immigration as I am okay with access for travel, holidays, business and so on.  I must admit though that I am somewhat uncomfortable about sharing this issue with the Donald but know too that the average person – the Silent Majority if you will – is on side with me – and sadly, on side with Trump’s more extreme approach as well.  For me you can liken this to a virulent virus affecting a significant minority in the Middle East; it would only be prudent to take steps Medically to contain the virus in place for the benefit of all.

So too with Religious Radicalism – not to isolate them will only invite more death and destruction throughout the West. And in my Blog below – I am only referencing Terrorism – it does not mention the third class treatment of women / girls nor even worse - genital mutilation – abortion of female babies etc.  Good Muslims need to discredit the radical jihadists as well as those who continue to hold onto such out-dated convictions in situ.  To import this virus now will only serve to dramatically under-mine or way of life.

In the meantime, we need to reserve a place here for Muslim immigration in the future for the benefit of us all – Muslims, Christians, Jews and Atheists alike.   G

 

Muslim Immigration is just not working.

The current Saw spells it out quite clearly; not all Muslims are Terrorists, but all Terrorists are Muslim.

The recent attacks in Paris and last week’s attack in San Bernardino aptly stamps ‘proved’ to the saying.

In recent years, Muslim Immigrants have relocated to Europe in large numbers but tend not to merge into general society. For some reason, their religion tends to keep them separate and apart.

At the same time ISIS and others are trying to establish a Caliphate in the Middle East, with their eventual goal to conquer the World.

As the ‘Saw’ states - not all Muslims are sympathetic to their objectives, but a significant minority appear to be okay with it.

In the past century the common thought was that radical Islamic thought existed but it was confined to the ancient Arab Homelands still living in the 12th Century. But recent history has shown us that this way of thinking has taken root in Muslim Communities throughout the West even to the point where it is now infecting native born Muslim-Europeans and North Americans.

Our Politically Correct Leadership though continues to turn a blind eye to this and tell us that we cannot discriminate on the basis of religion.  US President Obama has carried this to the extreme by having Muslims comprise nearly 100% of Middle Eastern Refugees entering over the last few years.

It comes as little surprise to us that this political correctness coincides with modern secular societies’ antipathy to Christianity.

And dear Reader things will only worsen with the millions fleeing from Syria and Iraq to the West to flee the carnage going on there. Middle Eastern Societies are suffering breakdown. And via Immigration and acceptance of Refugees, the West is merely importing the problem which if unchecked will see our own civilization go down the tubes. 

Call it Discrimination if you want – since it is,  but the fact remains if the West wants to remain the Beacon for the World we cannot allow ourselves to be destroyed from within.

Many remark of late that the Terror of the Middle East cannot be subdued by bombs alone and they’d be right.  But bombs do buy us time.

What is needed is for the moderates in Muslim Society to come forth in overpowering numbers to defeat the Islamic Nut-bars on their own turf. That requires Muslims to stay in place until they can bring these Radicals kicking and screaming into modern time.

When Radical Muslims have been truly and thoroughly discredited, the time will have come to welcome the Muslim Religion back into the fold. 

As I see it… 

‘K.D. Galagher’

Donald Trump … Still Number One !!

 

As we get closer to the beginning of Primary Season, ‘The Donald’ continues to lead the GOP Pack by an ever growing margin.  The recent Islamic attacks in Paris and just last week in California have consolidated support for him and, in contrast to the dwindling ratings for Obama – the do nothing President of the United States.

Whether this will translate into ultimate victory for Trump remains to be seen but what is no longer in doubt is that he is in a much better position to win that he was when he announced his candidacy this past Spring.

I said then, and I say now – Trump has been good for American politics; he has shaken up the complacent, politically correct establishment and has focused America no election issues of importance to the average Joe and Jane.

That said, I would still not vote for Trump if I was an American; unless, of course, he was running against the opportunist Hillary Clinton.  Let’s face it, the only reason that dear Hillary is even a factor in the Democratic Party is the fact that she is married to the more popular former Prez. Bill – even with his many peccadillos.  Accomplishments in her own right are barely better than they were for Obama 7 years ago.

My favourite continues to be Marco Rubio and I fully suspect he will in the end attain the Republican nomination.

The Trump factor has been a plus for not only Rubio but for all the many Republican Presidential Candidates – his Star status has also greatly enhanced all of their profiles and from my perspective anyone of them are head and shoulders above the motely Democratic Contingent. 

But all of this does not change the fact that the Republican Party is at a disadvantage – it is rightfully viewed as being both Olde and White.  There are over 50 million Hispanics in America and more than 75% of them vote Democratic.  It is even worse for the 30 million plus Blacks since 90 plus % of them do likewise. With those odds against you it is virtually impossible to win.

A Rubio candidacy though would address this problem in a big way – as a Hispanic he would certainly cut into the Latin vote and would likely do well in the Black Community as well. Imagine a ticket of Rubio for President and Black American Dr. Ben Carson running as his V.P.  That would most certainly shake things up big time.

My preference for V.P. though is the only woman Republican Candidate, Carly Fiorina.  She’s tough and she knows her files cold. The US would be so much better off with this combo heading up the State.  - 

So its on to the Primaries in the early Spring – let the best man or woman win out – that is to say – Rubio and Fiorina.

As I see it…

‘K.D. Galagher’