IT IS A SAD STATE OF AFFAIRS WHEN YOU CANNOT TRUST THE COPS !

As in the Senior Cops like the FBI and the Justice Department.

In that regard, we are waiting breathlessly for the release of a memo which will chronicle efforts by both of the above to discredit Donald Trump.

As an aside, I can say that even in my home Province and Country the Ontario Provincial Police and the Royal Canadian Mounted Police..have been caught out from time to time giving succor to one party or the other...usually in support of the Liberals.

The same thing has happened in America especially during the 8 year tenure of Barack Obama.

Permit me to list but a few of the most egregious:

• The Black Panthers were never charged even though they intimidated voters from voting against Obama in 2008.
• The Internal Revenue Agency launched a campaign to specifically to audit Conservative Non-Profits Organizations. Again, no one was charged.
• The ATF's program named Fast and Furious which put guns in the hands of Mexican Drug Cartels resulted in an agent's death. The White House blocked all attempts to get to the bottom of it.
•  In the Benghazi fiasco Hillary Clinton and her senior officials in the State Department tried to blame it on some obscure video when they knew all along it was a pre-planned terrorist attack and when they had all along turned a deaf ear to their Ambassador's request for greater security.  Again no inquiry.
• Then there was Hillary's use of insecure servers even though she was the second most powerful person in the Obama Administration.  Again no follow-up.
• And in regard to Hillary again.  Senior Officials in the Democratic Party were actively working for her against her main competitor Bernie Sanders.  Little was done to rectify this certainly nothing was done for poor Bernie.
• And to get back to the infamous memo about to be released, it will confirm that it was one and the same Hillary who had her campaign pay the Russians for dirt on Trump.  

And all the while Hillary was accusing Trump of working hand and glove with the Ruskies.  

Why it even led to the Meuller Special Prosecutor's investigation of how Trump et al worked with Russia to turn the last Election in his favour.

It wasn't Trump who was doing it...again it was dear Hillary.

But you would never know it from the Left Wing Media.  Silence.

I have said from the get-go that Trump was not working with the Russians or any other country for that matter in his victory over the Dems.  

But I cannot comprehend how Meuller did not come to realize that early on in his investigation.  He should have at least expanded it to include malfeasance on the part of Hillary and her Campaign Team.

So why is this so important?  Why is it not just interesting reading?

I will tell you why.  A Democracy without the Rule of Law is not worth the Constitution it is written on.

And in order to have Rule of Law, a country needs Impartial Enforcement.

This has been lacking in the United States for too long and if that state of affairs continues, the net effect of that is just too dangerous to contemplate regardless of who calls the White House home.    

As I see it...

'K.D. Galagher'

IT'S ALL IN THE NAME.

It must be or how else can you explain why the first two candidates out of the gate to replace the hapless Patrick Brown are a brother of a deceased Mayor and a daughter of a former Prime Minister.

Yes, I am speaking of course about Doug Ford and Caroline Mulroney.   The former's brother was Mayor of the City of Toronto... the infamous Rob Ford and, the latter's father is the humble Brian Mulroney.

This is Star Power at its worst and will certainly not work for Ford and hopefully not for C.M. either.

I say hopefully, since Justin Trudeau's status as the offspring of the late great Pierre Elliott certainly launched him into the Prime Ministership of Canada with little more than drama teacher experience. And not much of that.

Ford's biggest problem is that he lacks the charisma possessed by his more popular brother.  He could have benefited from the sympathy vote for his late brother had he run for the leadership in 2014. Now, 4 years later, that sympathy vote has evaporated with time. 

With respect to Caroline whatever happened to earning your stripes so to speak?  It borders on arrogant to think you can just opt for the top job without moving up through the ranks.

She will have her famous father beating the hustings for her but these will be Ontario hustings...not that of Quebec, so his help will be muted at best. Voters here in Ontario still remember that it was the big BM who added greatly to the National Debt during his 8 years in power.  After 14+ years of the Liberals, the last thing we  need are more big spenders.

There is though one man in the PC Ranks who has more than earned his stripes....proprietor of his own Marketing Business, former Mayor of North Bay, Member of the Provincial Legislature since 2011, in recent years Critic for Finance and today the Interim Leader of the Progressive Conservative Party.

I am speaking of course about Vic Fedeli but he has announced he will not seek the permanent leadership.

Pity.

As I see it...

'K.D. Galagher'

IT'S JOHN BAIRD'S IF HE WANTS IT.

And that is the question...Does He Want It.

For those Readers who have no clue who John Baird is, permit me to enlighten you.

Baird was the second senior Minister next only to Prime Minister Stephen Harper during the Conservative Government of Canada from 2005 to 2015.

Baird resigned his Ministry unexpectedly during the dying days of Harpers Administration for which I have never received an adequate explanation.

If it was just because Baird sensed the good Ship Harper was going down and simply got out when the going was good, he would not be too blemished should he decide to go for the Leadership of the Conservative Party in Ontario in the wake of the recent resignation of Patrick Brown. 

And should he do so, he would win a landslide victory in the coming Ontario Election which by law must be held this Spring. 

The Liberal Party, which ruined the economy of our Province over the course of its 14+ years in power, will be left as nothing but a rump.

There will be lots of interest in the coming Leadership Race, but when the dust settles it will be Baird who stands victorious.

That is of course, should he decide to run.

As I See It...

K.D. Galagher

WELL THERE GOES MY FIRST NEW YEAR'S PREDICTION OUT THE WINDOW....

In my list of predictions for the coming year, which I just completed the other day, I said that the Progressive Conservatives under the Leadership of Patrick Brown would win this coming June Election and he'd become the Premier of Ontario...Canada's largest Province.

That will now not happen...Patrick Brown has just resigned his Leadership allegedly due to two sexual indiscretions of some 10 years ago. 

For me personally, there is both good and bad in this development:  the good being that I will now likely be able to vote Conservative in the coming Election.  The bad part is that Politics is a dirty business and despite my misgivings about Brown as Party Leader, I feel very sorry for him... he did not deserve to have it come to an end in this way.

That said, it is somewhat ironic that Brown had this hidden in his closet, a year or so ago, when he cashiered our own Member of the Legislature... Jack MacLaren from the Party.  MacLaren had made an off-colour joke at a 'male, off the record charity fundraiser' the joke, is alleged to have been given to Jack to say by his Wife.  Knowing Jack as I do, I suspect his wife was just trying to make her straight-laced farmer husband look just a little more like 'one of the guys'.

Looking back now it seems to me to have taken a lot of gall on the part of Patrick Brown to have acted so swiftly and decisively in regard to MacLaren when his own record in these matters was less than pristine.   

So what did he do?

Again, both events are alleged to have occurred 10 years or so ago.  In one, he kissed a staffer and when she resisted and asked to go home, he drove her home.

The second, involved oral sex.  He asked a woman to give him oral sex and she started to do just that.  Then she stopped saying she did not want to have this go any further.  So what did Brown do?  He stopped.

On the Harvey Weinstein sexual assault scale, Brown's actions barely register.  

Could this just come down to Patrick Brown's ability as a Lover, as his ability as a Leader, is wanting?

I remember vividly, an elderly Statesman of the olde school upon hearing that one of his colleagues had been charged with sexual harassment commented, 'has the guy not learned by now how to approach a woman".  

But there is something in the air that does not smell right.

I spoke earlier today with my life-long friend Johnny who summed it up quite nicely, ..."there is someone(s) out to destroy Brown" and I agree.  It just does not add up.

And to have his entire senior staff quit on him too makes little sense if the 10 year old assertions really contain so little substance.  I never had any use for his staff and maybe this is just another example of why I have held that belief.  But just maybe they know something that we don't.  With so many involved, it will soon come out.

And, if there is nothing there but what has been reported, it is another example of Brown's Deficient Leadership since he was the one who put these senior staffers in place.  

So politics is dirty but as always...very interesting. 

As I See It...

'K.D. Galagher'

Generally Speaking, I Am Opposed To The Death Penalty...

There is one group for which I find the DP entirely acceptable and that is with respect to Islamic Terrorists.

I say that not so much for their cowardly and inhuman ways as much as for the danger posed by their delusional accomplices who in all likelihood will take innocent people hostage to try and exchange them for their freedom.  

They should be immediately taken out and shot.

And that reminds me of a well traveled satirical joke  that I will mention just in case you have never heard it.

Islamic Terrorists are apparently so stupid they believe 72 Virgins await them in whatever they call their heaven.  The story goes that one such unfortunate, upon attaining his sought after hereafter, was met by 72 Virgins alright but they were all Nuns brandishing AK-47s and pointed in his direction.  Can't say his prayers were not answered!

But recently another situation has been in the news where I would not hesitate to prescribe this type of speedy justice.  You probably heard about it.  A Mother and Father were charged with venal abuse of their 13 children.  Starving them, tying them up, beating them and so on.  One girl, age 17, managed to call 911 and the first responders who found her said she looked no more than 10.

As a parent of three children and 6 grandchildren I cannot imagine the horror inflicted upon these innocents.  Hanging is simply too good for the pair of them. 

As I See It...

'K.D. Galagher'

A LOOK AHEAD TO 2018.....

OKAY WITH 2017 NICELY BEHIND US, LET'S LOOK AHEAD AND TRY TO DETERMINE WHAT'S IN STORE FOR US IN 2018.

AS FOR ME, I BELIEVE IT WILL BE MORE OF THE SAME.

IN OUR COUNTRY CANADA, OUR PRIME MINISTER JUSTIN TRUDEAU WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE EVERY PROGRESSIVE POLICY THAT COMES DOWM THE PIKE.  AND IN DOING SO, HE WILL KEEP CANADA AN IRRELEVANCE ON THE WORLD STAGE.  MORE IMPORTANTLY FOR US CANADIANS WE WILL CONTINUE TO FALL SHORT OF OUR POTENTIAL.

THE COUNTRY TO OUR SOUTH, THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, WILL CONTINUE TO BE SPLIT DOWN THE MIDDLE WITH THE PROGRESSIVE LEFT HATING EVERYTHING TRUMP DOES OR DOES NOT DO... THEY SIMPLY HATE TRUMP.  FULL STOP. 

LIKE CANADA, EUROPE TOO WILL BUSY ITSELF WITH THE MUNDANE AND IN SO DOING WILL LEAVE THE HEAVY LIFTING ON THE WORLD STAGE TO THE UNITED STATES, CHINA AND RUSSIA. 

THE MIDDLE EAST, NOW THAT IT HAS BROKEN THE YOKE OF ISIS AND ITS WISH FOR A CALIPHATE, WILL CONTINUE TO WALLOW IN CHAOS.  RUSSIA AND IRAN WILL SEE TO THAT BY WORKING TOGETHER TO KEEP THIS AREA OF THE WORLD OFF-BALANCE.  THE US HAS BEEN RENDERED NEUTERED HERE FOR THE TIME-BEING. 

RUSSIA WILL LOOK FOR ANY OPPORTUNITY TO POUNCE ON FORMER USSR STATES SHOULD ONE OR MORE OF THEM SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKNESS.  NATO WILL HAVE TO KEEP ON BEING VIGILANTE. 

CHINA WILL CONTINUE TO FLEX ITS MUSCLES.

OKAY, ENOUGH OF MOTHERHOOD, NOW SOME SPECIFICS WHICH WILL INCLUDE MY OWN RATING OF BETWEEN 1 AND 3 IN REGARD TO LEVEL OF DIFFICULTY.


SO LET'S START WITH MY LOCAL GOVERNMENT AND WORK OUR WAY UP:

MY CITY OF OTTAWA will see our quadrennial Election (every 4 yrs)  FOR COUNCIL AND MAYOR TAKE PLACE THIS FALL. 

I do not know how many Councillors we have nor do I know many of their names.  I do know that the Councillor for my area is Allan Hubley and the Councillor for the area where I recently lived , Eli El-Chantiry are both are good guys and will win re-election easily.  The real action, as always, is the contest for Mayor and we in Ottawa have a good one.  Pundits joke that our Mayor Jim Watson would come to the 'opening of an envelope' if only asked. 

In his last election he gained over 76% of the popular vote and should do very well again in 2018.  Some 'heavy duty' names are being bandied around as potential opponents and although this may well reduce Watson's margin of victory should one or more decide to run... they will not threaten his ongoing reign.   My Rating 1:3  i.e. easy to predict

MY PROVINCE OF ONTARIO  will also see an Election in 2018..by law, it must be called no later than the 7th of June.

The Liberal Government under the Premiership of Kathleen Wynne and before her, Dalton McGuinty is one of the worst, if not the worst in Ontario History.  When the Liberals took power in 2003 Ontario was the economic engine of Canada, today it is a basket case labelled a 'Have Not Province'  and relying upon the largess of its sister provinces to help us pay the bills racked up by our out-of-control Liberals.  Our Province's Debt has gone up from $110 Billion in 2003 and today stands at $312 Billion.  Close to a 300% increase in just 14 years.  Unbelievable but true.

Also unbelievable but true is the fact that a sizable minority of Ontario's voters still plan to vote Liberal in the upcoming Election. The Liberals will lose though to the Progressive Conservatives under the anemic leadership of Patrick Brown.  It remains to be seen whether the Liberals will come in 3rd behind the New Democratic Party.   Rating 1:3.

• Plus I predict that both the Liberal Leader and the NDP Leader will not survive the year.   Rating  3:3

MY COUNTRY CANADA  Unfortunately Canada is not having an Election this year, I say 'unfortunately' since we have been led for 2 years by Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who sports the good looks of his mother, as well, it appears, he inherited her hippie brain.   Nothing wrong with that per se, but it does not make for good leadership.

 A few prediction involving Young Trudeau's Government for 2018:

1. His Finance Minister appointed along with great expectations will lose his post this year plus he will be through with politics.   Ratings 1:3 and 2:3
2. Liberal popularity will continue to remain flat.  Over the course of 2016 Party support stood at approx 47% which in our country is considered very high and guarantees majority government status. Today, at the beginning of 2018, their support is in the mid 30s with some reputable polls showing a Conservative victory if an Election were to be held now. The Conservative support at approximately 33% will rise over the course of the year.     Ratings  2:3 and 2:3.
3. The current NAFTA Trade Talks between Canada, the US and Mexico will continue to spin its wheels resulting in no successful conclusion in 2018.   Rating  2:3.
4. There is even a good chance that President Trump will actually pull out of these NAFTA TALKS.  There are two major reasons for this: first Trump foolishly prides himself on being an isolationist and it follows that he is not an admirer of Trade Pacts.  Second, our Prime Minister has laced these talks with demands that have zip to do with Free Trade: things like Measures to Fight Climate Change, as well as Native, Gender, and Human Rights.  With mid-term elections coming at the end of this year, I predict he will pull the plug on these talks.   Rating 3:3
5. Like their Liberal Cousins in Ontario, the Federal Liberals love Debt and Deficits.  Trudeau campaigned on actually running an annual debt of $10 Billion during his administration.  Upon attaining office, he up the anty to $30 Billion per year.  I predict that his misguided policy will continue unabated throughout 2018 and beyond.    Rating 1:3.                          (The Conservative Party does not have clean hands here either.  They were the Governing Party during the 10 years prior to Trudeau and during that time added over $150 Billion Dollars to the National Debt.)
6. Canada has large pools of in-ground oil especially in the Province of Alberta and to a lesser extent Saskatchewan.  The big problem we have is that we lack sufficient pipelines to take our oil to market.  Trudeau professes to support pipeline construction...albeit reluctantly, but I do not see any new pipeline construction for this coming year even though oil is one of the few pluses our country has economically speaking.    Rating 1:3

The United States of America   Our neighbour to the south.

Their Big Issues for 2018, as I see them, include the following:  Obama Care, Major Infrastructure Spending, Immigration Reform, Military Rebuild, North Korea, Iran, the Wall, Trump's Survival and November`s Congressional Elections:

1. Obama Care will limp around if for no other reason than the Democrats will await the outcome of November's Congressional Elections.  It is going to take the 2 Parties working together to undo the damage done to their health system.   Rating 1.5 : 3
2. Infrastructure Spending will not occur on any serious scale since America is broke and the Republicans have to overspend in the neglected area of Defence.  They cannot do both.  (There is away they can do both - ie privatize Infrastructure Projects but that too won't happen.)   Rating 2.5 : 3
3. Improvements to their Immigration System will continue over the year to the consternation of the Dems.  That said, with the Congressional Elections in November, Democratic opposition will be noticeably muted.   Rating 1.5 : 3
4. Military Spending will continue to rise, again to the chagrin of the Democrats.  Trump will find the money which when you think about it is a little out of character for a person who claims to be an isolationist.  Rating 1.5: 3
5. North Korea will continue to be the world's primary evil doer. I predict that its Leader...The Yung-un, will not survive the year.  (I know I can hear many of you now saying that I predicted this would happen last year...to which I say, one of these years I will be right).   Rating 2.5 :3 
6. Iran may not be the primary evil doer as I have classed North Korea but it remains this year, as it has for many years past the most dangerous country in the world. As an Ally of Russia it is virtually untouchable in the immediate future.  The only faint hope in the short term is that its own people rise up and replace their twisted Theocracy.  I predict it will not happen this year.   Rating 2:3
7. The Wall is going to continue to be built despite recent mutterings by Trump`s Chief of Staff that they are having second thoughts.  Kelly may well be having second thoughts but Trump is not.  If he wants to keep his job, Kelly needs to be more careful with his gratuitous ramblings.  Rating 2:3
8. Trump will not last the year ...so many believe.  They of course said the same thing throughout 2017.  When we usher in 2019, the world will do so along with President Trump.   Rating .5:3 (that`s point five out of three)
9. Finally, I`d be remiss if I did not include something here about the November Elections.  To be quite frank with you I do not know how these Elections will turn out.  It is too far in the future.  I do know that as of right now everything is up for grabs.  I am a strong believer in polls and as such await the polling numbers that come out in the days leading up to Election Day.  I will though venture some guesses - First that the House of Representatives will retain a Republican Majority,  Rating 1.5:3    And although I personally hope not, the Democrats will regain majority status in the Senate. Rating 2:3   

Europe including Great Britain

This will be the final area that I will pontificate on.  Other countries in the news such as China, Russia, Iran and so on have been covered more or less indirectly above.

• Europe Generally will polarize between the alt right and ISIS and their ilk.  Although both sides are loathsome, the former`s rise is directly due to the Terror inflicted by the latter.  This has been allowed to happen by Europe`s open borders and its inability to prevent cultural ghettos.  It will be much more bloody than last year.   Rating 1:3
•  The days of majority government are over for the foreseeable future.  Rating 1:3
• The Prime Minister of Great Britain and the Chancellor of Germany have no future and are just marking time.  They may well make it through this year but will not be around when 2019 comes to an end.   No Rating
• As noted above, for the most part Europe is a non-player even though it is needed more than ever with the rise of China and Russia and the financial troubles of the USA.  Sooner or later they will have to get off their collective duffs and join the fray but it ain`t going to happen in 2018.  No Rating

So there you have my thoughts ...gloomy as they may be, for the coming year.  They relate to Leadership throughout the world which too often is found wanting. 

But for individual families and friends, especially those living in the West, things are pretty darn good and will stay that way over 2018 and beyond.  We are collectively so fortunate.

So keep the faith, love God and your fellows and don't forget those who have so much less than we do.

As I See It...   

'K.D. Galagher'

MY ANNUAL LOOK-BACK... AT 2017...

From the perspective of my New Year's Predictions.

This always provides me with some trepidation as you might well imagine...and where I blew it...I will 'man-up' to having done so.

As a reminder, my focus for this past year's prognostications continued to be on matters of international interest / import given that the promise of our Prime Minister of 2 years to "Bring Canada Back",  has actually taken us out of play in the World Arena. 

I have included my Blog from a year ago in its entirety and where I have felt it necessary, have included comments in bold italics.

Here Goes:

In some ways, 2017 will be a replay of last year - the world will continue to spiral out of control but due to two very different personages - Obama and Trump, we are guaranteed some significant changes.  

1.  On the international front and due to Obama's negligent dithering, Syria will become almost peaceful in 2017.  "Good news" you say ! Hardly, what it means is that with Russia's and Iran's backing.. the Syrian Henchman al Assad can now rule Syria again with a iron hand.  No freedom, No Human Rights, No Humanity. But...Peace.   I blew it here, not because peace did not break out in Syria...it did, but it came about as a result of a coalition between Russia (Putin) and the United States (Trump) that defeated the ISIS army and its desired Caliphate.  That said, I was not totally wrong either since Russia / Putin is well entrenched in the affairs of Syria and indeed in much of the Middle East due to Obama's ineptitude.

2.  Trump, on the other-hand, is coming to power on a pledge to keep the US out of foreign entanglements and to play nice with brutal leaders such as Vladd Putin.  Fortunately, The Donald is not built that way (see final line below), and soon the two will be at each others' throats.  And that applies to other dictators and bullies around the world who mistakenly may think Obama's pacificisty has rubbed off on Trump.  Again I believe I read this one correctly. Trump may well be a loose cannon but he does not suffer gladly thugs and henchmen (even though many of you will say he is one himself).  In regard to Putin, I blew it here since I thought that by now they'd be at each others' throats but this will come about if Putin tries any funny business in the olde Eastern Europe.  More on this in by coming Blog for 2018.

Here are some other important areas which will see notable changes in approach between these two:

3.  Climate Change, Green Energy, and such will take a back-burner in importance in the United States thereby saving American's $ Billions of Dollars in wasted time, effort and especially money.  The Donald pulled out of the Paris Accord, need I say more.

4.  Business is back.  Trump's policy of reducing Business Tax from 35% to 15% will provide a huge stimulus to the American Economy resulting in jobs, jobs, jobs.  I hit this one on the mark albeit the reduction in tax was somewhat less than I had predicted.  This is the reason that the DOW Jones rose over 7,000 points over the course of 2017...a simply staggering number.  And it will go even higher for the foreseeable future.  

5.  The American Dollar will be strong throughout 2017 compared to other currencies.  Mostly true.

6.  The Keystone XL Pipeline will finally get Presidential approval. It happened this past March.  It will mean thousands of jobs for America and will bring the day closer for North America to be energy self-sufficient. 

7.  Changes are coming to Obama Care but the big one will see  business get out from under paying the high cost of health care for their full time employees.  This in turn will reverse the trend, over the last 8 years, in the spectacular growth in part-time workers at the expense of full-time.   I am going to say I blew it big time here because I thought Trump and the Republicans would deep six O.C. but they were not able to.  Plus, I do not think what they were suggesting as a replacement was any better.   It is obvious that it will take Dems and Rep working together to fix things but the likelihood of that happening does not seem to be in the cards.

8.  Given the Religious Community's support for Trump in the recent Election - something of significance will be given to them. Certainly we will see the de-funding of Planned Parenthood and likely much more. The Trump administration is indeed more Religion Friendly and funding for Planned Parenthood was scotched. 

9.  The Wall will go up on the southern border with Mexico and Trump will find ways to wrest $ from their neighbour to the south to help pay for it.  Will it though stop tunneling? Because it won't stop migration from sea and air..but it will help.  The Wall is going up and illegal migration is way down some say by as much as 70+%.  Once the Wall is completed, it will drop even further.  A country that cannot or will not police its borders is not protecting its citizens.  Trump has yet to say how he will have Mexico pay for the Wall but I suspect this will still come about. 

10. Trump is also on record as promising vast investiture in infrastructure.  It won't happen - the Democrats have doubled the national debt to over 20 Trillion Dollars - that's Trillion with a T. The fact is the US is broke and it will take years of righting the Ship of State before infrastructure $ can be freed-up.   This one will have to be left for 2018 too since Trump is still on record saying he will accomplish this.  With the Debt so high and more big money being spent on the Military, I still see this as unlikely to happen.

11.  On Free Trade, Trump has indicated that he will rewrite them in favour of American interests. Here again I am hopeful that common sense prevails for a couple of reasons:  first, america is no wilting violet when it comes to negotiating such agreements and second, protectionism does not work all you end up with is more expensive and yet inferior goods and services. If Trump does persist with his nonsensical plan, we will all suffer, most especially the United States.   The Jury is also still out on this one and the outcome will have to await into 2018.  Reports though indicate that negotiations are strained.  The only true free-trader amongst the 3 countries appears to be Mexico. Now that tells us something.

Other Predictions Regardless of Trump:

12.  Gold will tread water where it currently is - $1,100 per oz range.   Gold averaged slightly higher ...$1,200 per oz but no one grew rich in investing in gold over the course of 2017. As we enter 2018 it is creeping higher so we'll see if it has legs after a long period of moving sideways.

13.  Oil will tread water too at the mid $50 dollar a barrel range even though OPEC members have promised to cut production to force the cost per barrel up.  This group makes Ali Baba and the 40 Thieves look like Choirboys...you can't trust them.  Again true, since oil averaged in the $50 range throughout 2017.  As we enter 2018 it is beginning to enter into the 60 dollar range due to the populace rising up in Iran.


14.  I mentioned Syria will see peace breakout and all for the wrong reasons. But Iraq will continue to see much division and bloodshed. The southern part of Iraq which is Shia will be spared since they will be protected by Shia Iran.  The Sunnis middle will continue to be the target of the Shiites and will foreshadow the day when the Middle East will see open warfare between Sunnis and Shia Muslims.  The northern part of Iraq occupied by the Kurds will see unrest until the day comes when the Kurds are given their own country...and that day is not far off.  In fact, you will soon see the current Iraq divided into three separate countries - the Kurdish north, the Sunnis middle and the Shia south and although that is unlikely to happen before the end of 2017 it will certainly be evident to all at year's end that this is the direction things are headed.
Another I 'blew it'.  ISIS stands defeated as an army but trouble galore awaits Iraq for 2018 and beyond. I did not predict a breakup of Iraq in 2017 and am not going to suggest it for the coming year but I am convinced that a long lasting peace there awaits such a division.

15.  2017 will see ISIS and similar Murderous Barbarians without any land holdings in the Middle East.  The Caliphate will have to await another time.  Their terror will now fully morph into guerrilla warfare throughout many parts of the world - more car bombs, lone gunmen, and the such.  It will not be pretty.    True, True, True.

16.  Russia and Iran have replaced the US role in the middle east and more conquests can be expected...Libya anyone?  As long as NATO is parked in the former satellites of the Soviet Union, Russia will refrain from attacking them militarily.  I am though worried about the Ukraine which is not a NATO member and which does not appear to have sufficient support from that organization.  I would expect Putin to try more mischief there during this coming year.  Mostly true.  Putin is still trying to destabilize Ukraine but has his hands full trying to insert himself deeper into the politics of the Middle East.

17.  Sunnis Nations such as Saudi Arabia will intensify their efforts to obtain nuclear weapons.  True as per the report of the Washington based Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS).  I might suggest to this organization that it find another acronym.  In addition, Saudi Arabia announced in 2017 that it is planning to build 16 Nuclear Reactors at a cost of over $80 Billion Dollars.  A new Nuclear Armament Race has begun thanks to Iran and North Korea.  

18.  Germany's Angela Merkel is toast and won't survive this year's national election.  She is blamed for the chaos caused to her country via the invitation to 1 million + unvetted Muslim Refugees in 2015 and 2016.   Sort of blew it... but the September 24th Election left Ms. Merkel in minority government status.  Into 2018 she is still desperately trying to mend together a coalition.  I still believe time is running out for Germany's 'Mutti'.

19.  The EU will continue to totter which is too bad since a strong united European Union is needed to fend off an aggressive Russia, a totalitarian Giant - China, and a large pockets of hostile Islamists. Again True.  The Big Three, Britain (well into leaving the EU) Germany (preoccupied with seeking a working Government) and France (testing Government run by a non-traditional Party) is a recipe for disaster.  The EU, like our Canada is happy to take a back seat to Russia, China and the United States. 

20.  A strong NATO is needed now more than ever given the fallout from #19.  Trump threatened at one point to leave NATO...which is crazy talk and then demanded correctly that NATO countries pay their fare share. Of its 28 member nations only 4 or so pay the recommended 2% GDP on their military.  If NATO does not step up to the plate so to speak, things will go from bad to worse for freedom loving peoples of the world.  My guess is that the membership will start paying up in this coming year.  Plus I would have it change its name from North Atlantic Treaty Association to the North, South, East and West Treaty Association and expand membership to such countries as India, Japan, Australia and South Korea. Trump did indeed change his tune saying now that NATO is indeed a vital organization to world peace.  He has outed member nations for not paying their fair share and although I had trouble finding hard data, at least more and more members are promising to expend more on their defence budgets.  Time will tell.  I did not predict a name change or membership enhancement for NATO...merely that that would make sense and I believe in the not too distant future this will indeed happen since with the rise of China, the United States can no longer play Policeman for the world even with a diminished NATO.

21.  The British economy will decline and its pound drop even more from the effects of moving out of the EU.  Won't be a good place to invest in 2017.  At the beginning of 2017 the Pound Sterling could purchase 82.03 cents US.  It declined all year and by year's end was down to 73.55 cents US.  It is not likely to do any better in 2018 and quite possibly even worse.

22.  China -  will continue to threaten its neighbours.  It will also focus especially on Taiwan given Taiwan's President recent friendly chat with Donald Trump. I do not think it will go so far as to invade Taiwan... at least in 2017.   As we end 2017, China is a big a threat as ever to its neighbours and beyond.  Fortunately for it, the world's attention has been focused on the antics of North Korea allowing China to fad into the background.  I was wrong to even think that China would invade Taiwan and believe this will hold for the coming year.  As its military power continues to grow however, I would not be too comfortable if I was Taiwanese.  

                                    -----------------

There is one other prediction I made later in the year that did not come to fruition either and that was my statement to the effect that the Yung-un of North Korea would not survive to see the New Year.  He did and I was wrong.  Maybe the olde saw 'The Devil Takes Care Of His Own' is alive and well. 

So Predictions, Predictions, but one thing is certain, with The Donald at the helm of the Free World, ... 2017 will certainly be a most interesting year.     Check

And nothing, dear Reader, is certain as per the following passage I read in the papers over Christmas:

The mainstream press and the politicians take Trump literally but not seriously,,,while the electorate takes Trump seriously but not literally.  

Bottom-line:  I do not think I did very well in regard to my above predictions.  You can grade me if you wish.  Hopefully I will be able to redeem myself in 2018 !!

As I see it...

'K.D. Galagher'