Read Them And Weep …

 

The Polls leading up to tomorrow’s Ontario Election that is.

A couple of days ago, in my last ‘let’s pretend it is election day in Ontario’ I pointed out that although it is virtually a dead-heat between the two major parties, the Liberals were apt to win if for no other reason than they have a lock on GTA’s 40 seats.

Now, on the Eve of Election Day, I do not see that anything has changed from then.  If anything, the Grits have pulled slightly ahead over the course of the last two days.

I am not going to recite here the many reasons why Wynne and company deserve a good thrashing nor am I going to list the critical mistakes made during the campaign by the Hudak folks … by this time, you are as well aware of this as I am.

There will be lots of time to review what went wrong post election day.

In the old movie ‘Harvey’, starring Jimmy Stewart, his character Elwood had this to say; “In this world you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well for years I was smart; I now prefer pleasant”.

So for me I would rather vote for the nice guy who finishes last than for the crook who finishes first. …

I will be casting my vote for Hudak.

The Unions, which have spent millions upon millions of their members dollars to see this win come about will one day soon see their victory tomorrow as hollow since sooner or later even the Liberals will be forced to take steps to clean up the mess they have created for Ontario’s economy.

In that regard, there is justice in the Liberals winning tomorrow … it could not happen to a more deserving bunch.

As I see it…

‘K.D. Galagher’

 

One Last Time …

 

Let’s Pretend Today, is Thursday June 12Th, Election Day In Ontario.

So What are the Polls saying?

A Dead Heat:  Tories 36.5; Liberals 36.0; and NDP 20.0 %.

To me, this translates into a minority Liberal Government, with some important caveats.

The Liberals have the lead in core Toronto – 43 to the Tories 31 and with the NDP at only 17% there, it means most if not all of Toronto’s 20 seats will continue to be Red.

The surrounding area of Toronto – the important 905 Region too remains Liberal – but less so – with the Liberals now at 37% to the Tory 30% and the Dippers at 20%.  If that holds to election day the Grits will get the over half of the 905 vote – so they will leave the GTA with at least 30 of the 40 available seats.

They only need 54 seats to form a majority.

Now the caveats:

First, a greater % of Tory Voters say they are committed to going to the polls – so the dead heat numbers above have to be read with that in mind – i.e the Tory vote is firmer.

Second, with such a large lead in Toronto and to a lesser extent in the 905 – many liberal votes there will be wasted as overkill. But they still will most likely come out of those two areas with at least 30 seats.

Third, momentum – the big MO is beginning to turn on the Liberals. In other words, the longer the election goes on – the less overall % they can expect.  In that regard, the Liberals can be thankful that the election is but 3 days away.  - and -

Fourth, the Unionization of the Election is starting to wear thin and is starting to turn voters off.  This will move more voters into the Tory ranks.

Taken together, the above could very well put the Tories in the win category and I will do my final Blog on the June 12th Election – on the 11th and will read the tea leaves as they then present themselves.

Right now though – my read is a slight win for the Liberals.  Their best hope is that more Dippers come their way between now and Thursday as the realization continues to sink in that the NDP really are not serious players in the 2014 Election.

As I see it …

‘K.D. Galagher’

 

ROBOCALL

 

Never in the History of Politics has So Much Been Written about So Little.

(My apologies to the late Sir Winston Churchill)

A Trial is currently underway in Guelph, Ontario in connection with the Great Robocall Scandal of the 2011 Federal General Election.

A lone individual, Michael Sona is facing one charge under the Elections Act for making misleading telephone calls (Robocalls) to Liberals in that Federal Riding.

In the lead up to his trial, ink has been splattered all over the place and in some cases awards have been given out to a newspaper – Ottawa’s own left leaning ‘Citizen’ and to two of its writers.  If they had any integrity those awards should be returned for handout to those more properly deserving.

Even Elections Canada got into the act claiming at one point that the Guelph experience was but the tip of the iceberg. That Robocalls had taken place right across Canada. It had to have orchestrated.

Suggestions were strongly made in Parliament and around the country that the Conservative Party itself was behind this nefarious scheme.

At the time, I believed that there was no way the Conservative Party nor any official Political Party would be involved in such shenanigans and I placed this incident, if it in fact had occurred, in the laps of some over-zealous riding volunteers.

Long ago, Elections Canada has had to admit there were no grounds for thinking a massive fraud on the voters had taken place.

Moreover, from the evidence presented so far at young Sona’s trial, it appears that it was he and he alone who carried out this ill advised stunt.

And stunt is the word to sum-up what occurred.

I have worked on elections since I was 11 / 12 years old, I have been a Riding President as well as a regional organizer for the Progressive Conservative Party of Canada and am well aware of what occurs at the local levels of politics.

When an election is called hundreds of volunteers from every background and stripe come forward to get involved in each of the main riding campaigns.

And dear reader do you know why that is?

If you guessed they are looking for IOUs form the winning Party – you’d be wrong.

Most are in it for the fun and I can tell you as an aside, more and more the fun is being taken out of it in this age of political correctness … but I digress.

So in Sona’s case here is a little guy who comes on board the Guelph Tory Campaign and he feels he is doing something worthwhile and the fact of the matter, he is.  He is having fun and gets over enthused and does something stupid and the media, Elections Canada, the Opposition Parties, the Pundits go wild.

It is to laugh out loud, since many of this righteous lot should and do know better.

And in that regard, I have a confession to make.

When I started out working on local campaigns as a kid, my main function was to go around the town and put up election signs on wooden telephone polls.  Yes, you younger ones, they were made of wood way back then.

And sometimes, not often, but sometimes I would tear down an opposition’s election sign ‘if it got in my way’.

So there, once upon a time, I too got overly zealous.

But what a sad commentary it is when one lone volunteer can cause such a national uproar.

Gotcha Politics has descended into new depths and we are all the poorer for it.

As I see it …

‘K.D. Galagher’

 

The Pundits Have Spoken …

 

In Regard to Who Won Last Eve’s Ontario Leaders’ Debate:

Hudak 1st; Wynne 2nd; & Horwath a close 3rd.

I concur with them, in fact I had my own scoring system and marked Hudak an overall 8.16 out of 10; Wynne 7.11; followed by Horwath at an even 7.

In the night’s seven categories,  counting the wrap-up, I had Hudak winning 6 and tying 1; Wynne winning 1 (surprisingly the topic on Debt / Deficit) and Horwath tying one with Hudak (Education).

Hudak opened calm and statesman-like and continued as such throughout; Wynne opened rattled but quickly picked up steam; while Horwath opened and closed looking nervous and disorganized.  In between she did okay.

So does any of this have anything to do with the price of tea in China? 

That is to say, will it have any impact on next week’s Election?

And the answer is a firm ‘Maybe’.

To move into majority territory, Hudak needed a strong performance from Horwath…. and he did not get it.

To do really well, Hudak needs the Grit and Dipper vote to split and Horwath’s weak performance virtually counts that out.

Wynne’ s performance – good or bad – really did not matter that much.  If you are a public service union employee, welfare recipient, a recipient of government largesse in general – you are going to vote Liberal in spite of what happened last night. 

In other words, her low 30 % support is safe and may even go up since some Dippers now are likely to flee the Horwath campaign.

Will that be enough to launch her into majority territory?  Not likely, but as I have said from the beginning, the Polls will soon tell us.

So back to Hudak.  His numbers too should improve with his winning performance and the positive effect that will have on the large undecided contingent.

Will they improve enough to launch him into majority territory?  Again, not likely.

And speaking of polls, I will do one more ‘let’s pretend it’s June 12th Election Day’ once the polling is in from yesterday’s debate.

The most important thing to come out of the Debate was Hudak’s promise last eve that he would not cut front line educators to those of special needs, rather he would actually increase their numbers.

As you know, recently I did a Blog on this very topic quoting several people who were planning not to vote for Hudak based on their fear that he would cut educators for autistic kids.  Yesterday, he put that to rest once and for all.

In emotional language, Hudak cited the health issues he and his wife have with their own little girl and then he spoke of a chap he went to school with who suffered from autism. I have some strong ties to this issue and was so relieved to hear what he said.  It also stands in contrast how former Premier and Wynne’s former boss Dolton McGuinty let autistics kids and their families down.

Finally, just to prove the Grits have not changed their stripes:  the OPP Association recently came out publicly against Hudak pretending it was not being done in support of the Liberals.  In spite of their protestations, it has been revealed just today that they were in extensive planning talks with the Grit Leadership in advance of their current anti-Hudak campaign.

We know we cannot trust the Grits but now have to add the Cops to list. Somebody has to get a handle on these out of control Public Service Unions but I fear if Hudak does not win a majority – Ontarians will be saddled with this for years and years to come.

A One Party State supported by an ever growing number of Public Servants making in excess of $100,000 k before plus pensions and benefits.

And if the Tories don’t win … you had better get used to it.

As I see it …

‘K.D. Galagher’

 

Rape Culture In Our Universities …

 

Is There One?

Now let me begin by saying I am not an authority on this subject, anything but, .. my only claim to enable me to write on the subject is that Anne and I have children and grandchildren of both sexes.

If that admission concerns you, I suggest you stop reading here.

But for those brave souls who wish to continue on,  here are my thoughts on the matter.

When the topic first came up a year or so ago – i.e. Rape Culture on Campus, my initial reaction was to think that those radical feminists were at it again.

More recently, after releasing a misogynist video we had Elliott Rodgers stabbing his 3 roommates to death and shooting two young woman at a nearby sorority house.  The women were the focus of his rampage which was based on his belief that women in general had not found him to be sexually attractive. 

I have been disabused of my initial thinking by my daughter, the educator, who assures me that there is a Rape Culture there and it is alive and thriving.

She cites several reasons for it including readily available pornography, movies, video games and the like that glorify oft times violent and meaningless sex.  Rappers continually degrading women in their weird and soul destroying lyrics. Let’s call it ‘noise’.

I had to agree with her and it got me to thinking about the topic from my own point of view, rooted, as it is, in the 1960s.

In my generation, guys were in seventh heaven if they were able to get a kiss on the first date. Girls were special and were to be treated as such.

Over the years things have changed in large measure due to the factors cited by my daughter.

But for me it goes beyond that.

Indeed, I have to wonder if it is just a Rape Culture we are dealing with today or is it also a Rape Me Culture.

With such idols as Madonna, Mylie Cyrus and Beyonce to emulate, no wonder many young girls dress and act like tramps.

Many cover their bodies with hideous tattoos that would put the Ancient Mariner to shame and speak the same lingo.

I was in a garage getting work on my car recently when I heard two apparently nice young girls talking about an auction they were going to that evening to bid on guys and with each winning bid came two cans of whip cream. They were not ashamed and made no effort whatsoever to keep their conversation to themselves.

My sainted ancestors would have been appalled.  I know I was.

What has happened along the way?  Making love has been trivialized.  Too often it appears as if there is no consideration given for their partner. 

So yes dear reader, thanks to the wise counsel of my daughter I have come to accept as fact that a Rape Culture does exist in our society. 

A culture that has enveloped boys as well as girls.  There is lots of blame to go around.

And I think I know what is lacking in all of this and that can be summed up in 1 word … R E S P E C T.

And until a person can Respect him or herself, he or she will be unable to Respect others. 

And all the ‘Noise’ that we each encounter in our daily lives makes the attainment of that goal all the more difficult.

As I see it…

‘K.D. Galagher’

One Scandal Too Many ?

 

Well just maybe.

I am speaking of course about the MARS Scandal currently enveloping the Party of Scandals – Ontario’s Own … The Liberal Party led by Kathleen Wynne and Dalton McGuinty.

By Their Sub-standards this scandal is relatively small … merely half a billion dollars which of course pales compared to the multi billion dollar fiascos we have come to expect from them but this one is important for the fact that it has come out with mere days left in the Ontario Election Campaign.

And it was revealed by the best Tory in the ranks .. Frank Klees, sadly he who has decided not to run in this Election.  He did though leave his hapless Leader with a well timed gift.

Even the Liberal Banner aka the Toronto Star, was aghast at Wynne and company’s temerity.

Here are the facts:

• MaRS Discovery District is a non-profit organization with a supposed mandate to promote technology and medical research.
• The Liberals initially gave MaRS a loan guarantee of $234 million as well as an additional $150 mill “in related expenses” to invest in an Office Tower to be located in the Queen’s Park District.
• The money went to an American Development Company which then defaulted on repayment for lack of tenants.
• You, the Ontario Electorate - has just inherited the office tower and all the expenses associated therewith.

What this has to do with promoting the MaRS Mandate “technology and medical research” beats me and I expect you too.

A Whistle Blower in the Government Cabinet Docs Section didn’t like it either and brought it to Klees’ attention.

Wynne scoffed it all off calling the Government’s support of MaRS and the American Developer “a responsible decision” and said it would allow for the consolidation of government workers in the empty tower.

Pardon me, but I do not see – the consolidation of government workers in high priced real estate - to be part of the MaRS mandate.

And all this occurring with yesterday’s Ipsos Reid Poll showing the Provincial Tories taking the lead and all in advance of this coming Tuesday’s Leaders’ Debate.

Now to be fair to the Liberals, MaRS was not an invention of theirs.  Indeed, it dates back to the short-lived Tory Government of Ernie Eves but I do not think anyone then envisaged how the current day Grits would improperly make use of it.

Regardless, as for me, MaRS should be returned to its own orbit…

As I see it …

‘K.D. Galagher’

Let’s Pretend Again That Today Is June 12th

 

Election Day in the Province of Ontario.

So Galagher what are the Polls saying today?

Glad you asked.

The most recent Forum Research has the Tories and Grits tied at 36% with the NDP way back at 20 per cent.

Poll 308 is close to that … 35.8 Liberal; 33.2 Tory; and NDP 22.7.

Abacus: Liberal 36; Tory 33 and the Dippers at 24.

So let’s do a rough round-up:  Liberals 36%; Tories 33%; and NDP 22%.

Minority Liberal Government.

This would likely buy Ontarians time before another election – 3 years or so – since the NDP would in all likelihood lend their support to Wynne especially now that the Liberal Party of Ontario is more left than our home grown socialist party.

This now sets the stage nicely for next week’s full Debate on June 3rd.

Some interesting developments since I last reported – Hudak continues to have trouble shedding his ill thought 1 million job plan and 100,000 reduction of the public service.  If he loses this election, as he well may, these will be the main reasons for that.

Horwath, has become more combative .. much more in fact, and if she brings that spirit into next week’s debate I predict her numbers will rise significantly.  Then again, they will have to rise significantly if she ever hopes to have a bearing on June 12th.

The Liberals continue to skate and duck and have been rather successful in distancing themselves from their last decade’s horrendous handling of Ontario’s affairs. It boggles the mind that voters can be so gullible.

That said, there has been lots of talk lately about the need for a 4th choice on the June 12th ballot …none of the above and given the choice presented to us by the 3 main parties, the 4th choice would have a good chance of winning.

Okay Galagher, we hear you but what do you see from the above?

Glad you asked.

I continue to see, as I have from the beginning, a Tory win; the question for me is whether it will be a minority …which is really a loss for reasons I believe you are well aware of .. or a majority. 

I believe that next Tuesday’s Debate holds the key. It will be well watched and I expect that a combination Horwath’s enthusiasm to hold Wynne to account and Hudak’s earnestness, will combine to undermine Ms. Wynne’s smugness.

Post Debate will see a rise in NDP fortunes, a reduction in Wynne’s support and a move into Government Territory for Hudak and company.

The only question that remains for me is whether the Tories will come out of it with a Minority or a Majority.

Let’s pray for the latter or we will all be in big trouble.

As I see it …

‘K.D. Galagher’