My Goal this year is to do better … much better than my predictions of the year just past.
Thankfully, this should not be too difficult a task.
Finally, before I start, I must apologize for the tardiness of this Blog – once again we have been experiencing internet troubles…
Okay, let’s get going; I will be using a different format from last year:
1. Canada
- Young Trudeau will win the Grit Leadership…sadly;
- Sandra Pupatello will win the Ontario Grit Leadership …poor dear;
- Harper will continue in earnest to implement his conservative agenda which he finally began in 2012…about time;
- The NDP will win this year’s election in BC …no brainer;
- Native unrest will intensify, especially as it relates to their efforts to derail the construction of oil and gas pipelines. This despite the fact that Oil / Gas is one of the few things that we in Canada have going for us …certainly we no longer can depend on Manufacturing for job creation … It is going to get very nasty;
- Teacher protests will spread to the entire Public Sector in the face of desperately needed cuts in spending…poor dears;
- Canada will continue to lead the G-7 in economic growth but will still toy with recession…nothing to brag about.
2. United States
- Will continue its descent into Debt. By year’s end, the Debt will total well in excess of $17 Trillion which will be well over 100% of its GDP. (the current debt level of $16 Trillion already totals 104%);
- The Debt Raters will downgrade the US credit rating;
- Interest Rates will rise;
- Gold will continue its march higher in value and will exceed $2k per oz by year end…buy gold;
- Oil however will not rise from current levels – $85-$90 per barrel, due to eco decline / slack demand …stay clear of oil companies;
- The Fed will continue with its disastrous policy of ‘Quantitative Easing’ which is simply a fancy term for the massive printing of money with nothing to support to it. This has the affect of devaluing hard earned savings and pensions…steer clear of bank savings accounts;
- Civil unrest, so evident in Europe, will spread to the States when the current occupant of the White House finally forced to take some timid steps to reel in spending.
3. Iran
- I have predicted in each of the last 2 or 3 years that either Israel or the US would finally take steps to wipe out Iran’s nuclear capability…it hasn’t happened, so I am not going to make the same prediction this year.
- I will simply say, as I have in the past, that the Iran Nuclear Issue is by far and wide, the major issue facing the World and if Iran is allowed to deploy nuclear weapons – we are all in great do do – Israel, the West, the Middle East – and yes, even ordinary Iranians and I will hold the current occupant of the White House responsible.
3. Europe
- Will endure business as usual; that is to say, it will descend once again into recession, civil unrest will continue to disrupt life in many of its member states;
- Debts will fester;
- The EU will be fortunate to hold together albeit it is likely to do so for at least this year. Should its problems continue into 2014 the unity of the Union will be very much in doubt.
4. Afghanistan
- The Taliban will continue to retake the country this coming year as NATO forces proceed with their pull-out…pity the poor female members of their society…maybe the West should relocate them all before the final pull-out?
5. Syria
- Many are predicting a long stand off with Assad – extending over several years. I don’t – he will be gone by year’s end and most likely within the next 5 to 6 months. Russia will likely broker a deal for his relocation if the locals don’t get him first.
6. The Middle East
- Will continue to descend more and more into an Islamic Winter.
- Al Qaeda will be more brazen there as well as throughout North Africa.
7. Russia
- Putin will continue to impose his ‘one man rule’ i.e. dictatorship on his far flung country…its economy will suffer accordingly.
8. China
- Will continue to outperform the West but at reduced levels given the abysmal state of European and US markets.
That’s it. If you believe I have missed anything of significance, please let me know and I will address it.
The bottom-line here is that year 2013 is all about economics and how we in the West are in for a very rough ride and we sink under a mountain of debt. On the positive side, wars involving the West, will diminish which is just a well for the cynical reason that we simply cannot afford them …especially the United States but that will likely be a leading story for 2014.
With this, I am going to return to my book writing and with it …reduced Blogging.
I hope 2013 is good to each and everyone one of you.
As I see it…
‘K.D. Galagher’
