My Prognostications for 2013

 

Once again my predictions … were in too many cases wide of the mark. 

Let’s start with Canada:

1. Trudeau will win the Liberal Leadership – check
2. Harper will earnestly move to implement his Party’s agend – X (the Senate Scandal intervened)
3. Native unrest will intensify – check
4. Chief Spence will emerge from her hunger strike in tact – check.
5. Canada will continue to lead the G-7 economically – check

     4 for 5 – 80%

The world:

1. Wars involving the West will diminish – no money left to fight – check

1 for 1 – 100%

The US of A :

1. Its debt as of January 3. 2012 was $16.3 Trillion and will exceed $17 Trillion dollars by Dec. 31/13 –as of December 26, 2013 it is $17,250,656,426,380.22 or some $56,778.00 per every man, woman and child – check
2. Debt Raters will downgrade the America’s credit rating.  Update – on Oct 15/13 Fitch issued a credit watch and on Oct 17/13 – Dajong Global reduced America’s rating from A to A minus and maintained a negative outlook going forward – check
3. Interest Rates will rise. Update – bond rates in the US have risen 1% over this year while Canadian Mortgages have seen a similar increase.  I had expected higher numbers so grade myself a – neutral.
4. Gold will reach $2,000 per oz by end of December 2013.  In fact it closed today at just a little above $1,200 per oz.  I blew it – x
5. Oil will not rise above the $85 – $90 range.   Today it was trading at just about $100 per barrel – another miscue – x
6. Feds will continue with quantitative easing (printing of $ without growth in GDP) - check

        3 for 5 with one neutral - - 60%

Ontario:

1. Sandra Pupatello will win the Liberal Leadership – wrong – x
2. There will be an election in 2013 and Hudac will win – wrong – x
3. The Teacher protest will spread to the rest of Ontario’s Public Service – wrong - x

        0 for 3 – 0%

China:

1. will continue to outperform the west – check

       1 for 1 – 100%

Europe:

1. will descend into recession / more civil unrest – it has done so but not by as much as I had anticipated – neutral

Middle East:

1. More Islamic Winter – check
2. Al Qaeda growth throughout Africa – check

   2 for 2 – 100%

Russia: 

1. will continue with its one man rule – check
2. its economy will suffer.  In fact it did – GDP stood at a respectable 3.4% for 2012 but declined to an anaemic 1.8% for this past year – 2013 - check

   2 for 2 – 100%

Iran:

1. The US will finally move in 2013 to wipe out Iran’s nuclear capability – it did not – x

        (this has been and will continue to be the biggest issue affecting the world for these past several years and will again in 2014)

   0 for 1 – 0%

Afghanistan:

1. the Taliban will continue to retake Afghanistan.  All reports indicate that the Taliban has increased its presence in Afghanistan throughout 2013 and have positioned themselves to retake the country once US Troops are gone next year.  - check

   1 for 1 – 100%

Syria:

1. Assad will be gone by year’s end.  The devil is still there – mark me an – x

    0 For 1 – 0%

So all in all I am not too happy with these results and will try to do better when my list for 2014 comes out shortly.

K. D. Galagher