Virtually since the Last Election I have predicted a Spring 2011 Election - check my Blogs.
I am not a magician - I simply am getting long in the tooth.
A Minority Parliament's useful date usually expires after two and half years - combine that with the Best
Season to have an Election - Spring and Voila you have Spring 2011.
But let's take a behind the scenes look at why all 4 Parties wanted to go now beyond the fact that the House had reached its Best Before Date.
First though a Disclaimer.
I am not saying I believe what I think the various Parties appear to be believing, I am simply saying that this is what I think they are thinking. Indeed, in some cases I believe they are misjudging the situation but more on that in a later Blog(s).
The Tories.
It is not easy running a minority government - lots of irritations not the least of which is being unable to get into your real program. Prime Ministers stuck in such situations dream of the day that they will be able to pursue their objectives unfettered. This is especially the case with the current occupant of 24 Sussex, Stephen Harper who has been stuck in this situation for some 5 (long) years.
And right now he finds himself and his Party on the brink of forming a Majority Government.
Polls over the course of the last few months showed the Tories ranging between a low of 35 % and a high of 43% with the median number being around 39%.
With the way in which the 4 Parties are split - the Tories should easily be returned with Majority Status if that 39% Median holds.
So Harper offers a bit in the Budget with the knowledge that that bit will not be enough for the Opposition Parties thereby putting the onus on them for the Election Call.
The Liberals
They know that this Election can only come out poorly for them. But they have had enough cow towing and propping up the Tories.
Plus the Grits themselves have had enough with their Leader. They want to get on with the bloodletting and see Ignatiff on his way back to the good ole USA.
But Ignatiff too has had enough. He never expected Politics in Canada to be so tough. He has taken one knock after another - some I believe undeserved - but he has ended up making Stephan Dion look positively good.
Ignatiff I believe wants out in the worst way but he is too proud to quit before once going to the Polls so he is prepared to do just that. Go to the Polls and then get on with his life and I do not believe his time a Opposition Leader will stand out positively for him in his years to come.
The NDP
Now to Jack - he smells blood.
And it is not Tory Blood - he too understands that the Conservatives are most likely to come out victorious - probably a Majority or at least a Strong Minority.
No, the Blood he smells is Grit Blood.
Again, let's look at the recent Polls.
Over the last few months the Liberals have ranged from 23% to 28% with a median of 26 %.
The NDP has ranged from 13 % to 20 % with a median of 17%. He knows too that the Liberal vote is more widely dispersed than is the NDP vote. For instance, the Liberals will get more votes in the East, in Quebec and in Ontario than will Jack's group where they will be competing with the Tories and Bloc and in many cases coming out 2nd.
But the NDP will be strong in the major Cities and in the West and in Northern Ontario.
He also sees the Liberals being on the verge of a free fall; the Libs are going into the Election dispirited.
Simply put - Jack sees rank and file Liberals turning to his Party in the upcoming Election and even foresees winning more seats than the Grits.
Visions of Opposition Leader dance in his head.
But don't celebrate too soon Jack.
The Bloc
This Party stands to win as much or more than the Conservatives.
Recent polling puts them at 40 % or so in Quebec almost two times as high as their closest rival the Liberals at 22%.
If those numbers hold and I expect they will, you will see the Bloc returned with upwards of 55 seats of the 75 Quebec seats available.
In 1993 the Bloc won 54 seats in Quebec and became Canada's Official Opposition Party.
The same could happen this time too.
But whether it does or not - such an increase would put the Bloc in stronger command of Quebec and should their sister provincial party win in the next Quebec Election - look out.
So that's my read. I have not seen much if any of what I have written above in the main street media. But that's my best bet and I stand by it.
As I see it...
'Galagher'
