Some Non-Surprises.
At this mid-way point in the Federal Election a few Surprises for me.
First, I am surprised that the Liberals have not collapsed more quickly under Ignatieff…. indeed, he has campaigned much better than I had expected.
Second, the Bloc is not doing as well as I had thought. They will still take the majority of seats in Quebec but at this point their seat count from last time would be down and they would not be in a position to become the Official Opposition.
Third, the Green Party is in collapse and although I did not expect them to do a well as they did last time, I thought their base would hold up better than it has.
Now the Non-Surprises:
I expected that the NDP would rise over the course of the Election – at the expense of the Liberals and this has been happening. This is likely to continue until Election Day and with the Regional Split in Votes – there may be a dead heat for second place between this 2 Parties when the dust settles.
What is clear at this point is that both Parties have a shot at becoming the Official Opposition.
The other Non-Surprise relates to the Tories – they started in the high 30s and they continue to enjoy (?) those numbers. These numbers are not likely to fall since, for the most part, they consist of their base support.
If they do hold – or go even higher (which is possible), a Majority for the Tories is the most likely outcome on May 2nd.
(I will still make a prediction on the final tallies on or about Sunday, May 1, 2011).
As I see it ….
‘Galagher’
