Today is the Day...

First, my Prediction:

Tories - 135 NDP - 101 Libs - 47 Bloc - 25


Another Prediction:

The Tories will continue to Govern - with the help of the decimated Grits.


A Final Prediction:

Iggy is toast - and so is Duceppe. Harper soon to follow.



Bottom Line:

A Government led by Layton is too scary to contemplate - more on that in a later Blog.


So Today's Election Day and as the olde Pros say - "Vote Early And Vote Often".


As I see it.....

'Galagher'

EKOS Has Really Shaken…

 

The Pundits Up.

A recap – Ekos came out yesterday with a Poll showing the Tories @ 33.7 % – the NDP @ 28% and Liberals @ 23.7 %.

It would be quite shocking – if only it was Accurate.

Rest easy though since It Is Not.

The Tories have not run a spectacular campaign – but they have held their own and their core following is in tact; that is to say in the very high 30 per centile.

The NDP has caught fire in Quebec – and I have no clue as to why, other than the fact that Quebecers are merely leaving one Socialist Group – ie the Bloc – for another – the NDP.

The Liberals have not run particularly well and Ignatieff continues to be the least popular Leader but although they are in decline they are by no means in collapse.

All this to say – as I have continued to say – the Tories remain in the high 30s and the Layton and Ignatieff are splitting the balance more or less evenly albeit with an edge to the NDP at this point.

The only question remaining for me is whether after May 2nd there will be a Majority Tory Gov’t or a Coalition between the other Two.

That said, I have never seen an Election where the majority of the Pundits are so dumbfounded:  they readily admit that they have no idea what the make-up of the next Parliament will be.

I had promised to publish my prediction on Sunday but given the interest and the conflicting polls will do so over the course of this Saturday.

If the Libs and NDP do in fact form the new Government – especially with Jack Layton as PM – Canada will spiral down as is currently the case with our neighbours to the South.

Pretty Scary Stuff..

As I see it …

‘Galagher’

I’m A Little Disappointed…

 

Following my Everglades Blog – no one came forward to ask if I had experienced other such Adventures on our recent Florida Holiday.

We did in fact – but given your lack of interest I will not be telling you about them.

In Particular, I will not tell you about my Deep Sea Fishing Outing with Skipper Dan.

I won’t recall how we (me) and a crowd of 2 others -gathered on the Dock – after paying another King’s Ransom for an Outing.

Only to be told by Skipper Dan (we all soon just called him ‘Skipper’) that we were wasting our time since for the past week no one, on his boating outings, had been successful in catching a fish. (at least Billy Bob waited until we were on route before giving us the bad news)

And Skipper Dan did not offer to return our money – even though I did make the request.

A little background here would help.

The Ad for this Deep Sea Adventure stated that the crew – i.e. the Skipper since he was all there was – “would clean any fish we caught” so we could take our harvest home and BBQ it for dinner – with no doubt lots left over for following nights.

Anne and I had been ‘restauranting’ each evening so this night would be different – I would catch our dinner and cook it – the Skipper would do the Cleaning.

That was the Theory of course – as a back-up – just in case.. I told Anne to meet me after our Fishing Excursion outside a nearby Restaurant in the Unlikely Event I came up empty in the Fish Department. 

Okay now let’s not go back to the Dock (remember – I am not telling you this Story for Lack of Interest).

We all (the 3 of us) and the Skipper scrambled on board.  We got the usual pitch where the life jackets etc are and off we went.

Some 45 minutes after departure we dropped anchor.

“How deep do you think it is here”? I ask Skipper.

“Four, maybe Six Feet”.

And you call this Deep Sea Fishing – I thought.

At least I did not need to worry about Life Jackets – I could walk / bob in that depth.

But low and behold we start to catch fish.

The Skipper is ecstatic – his week’s drought has come to an end.

On a sadder note though, he classifies each fish we catch as being “non-edible”.

We must have anchored at a half dozen different spots throughout the day and wouldn’t you know it – every fish we caught, regardless of where, was tainted with the Skipper’s “non-edible” designation.

This included fish such as the succulent Sea Bass that Anne and I had been so enjoying over the course of our stay.

To say that I was suspicious was an under-statement.

Soon our time was up.  With ‘threw back’ the last of our catch and returned to Port.

The Skipper wished us all – you know the three of us – a bon farewell and just before parting provided each of us with a bag containing brochures about the Adventure that he would appreciate us handing out to friends and passers by.

With bag in hand, I made my way to our Restaurant rendez-vous where I found Anne patiently awaiting me.

She smiled at seeing me approach and then frowned when she noticed the bag.

“Oh no” she pronounced.. “you didn’t actually catch fish”.

“Well yes I did – but don’t look so crestfallen – this is only a bag of brochures”.

“Thank God” she exclaimed, as we sauntered into the Bar.

 

So again, I am sorry that I could not relate the above story to you.

Nor will I be telling you about our adventures on the new Harry Potter Ride at Universal Studios.

My not doing so, in that case, has less to do with your lack of interest as it does will the nausea I still feel whenever I think back to that Ride from Hell.

As I see it…

‘Galagher’

Obama Launches Investigation Into Oil Speculators

 

Americans – as are we all – are most disturbed about the rising cost of gasoline now in the neighbourhood of $1.30 cdn. plus for a mere litre and in the case of the US – $5.00 a gallon.

We are right to be concerned since high oil costs will spell the end of our fragile economic recovery.

But Obama is wrong in his thinking that his Investigation will discover mass speculation – rather the cause of the on going spike is Obama’s own policies.

To be more precise – it is due to his out of control spending and out of control printing of money.

These two policy initiatives have combined to devalue the US Buck and since the world commodities are priced in US Dollars – the faster their buck drops, the faster the commodities rise in price.

Simply stated – if the dollar drops 10% in value – the price of a barrel of oil can be expected to increase by 10%.

So that in a nut-shell is the problem.  Obama can save some money by shutting down his inquiry before it even begins.

And it is not just things like Oil that are going up.

Gold and Silver are on a tear too.  This week Gold surpassed $1,500 an oz while silver soared to nearly $50.

One Wag was quoted in the Financial Papers today as saying these Rare Minerals are due for a collapse because they have risen too quickly.

He points out that their rise can be attributed primarily to all the media attention it has been getting – i.e. Gordon Liddy’s “Buy Gold Now”.  That is to say – that sales have been artificially spurred up.

But like Obama, he has got it wrong.

These metals are continuing to rise in value in parallel with the increasing US and European Debt and with their declining currencies.

You will know that earlier this week Standard and Poors placed the USA on a Credit Watch the end of which will likely see America’s credit rating diminished. Such an action will see their cost of borrowing increase which in turn will see their debt rise and dollar devalue even more.

It goes on and on.

Look at Greece for instance.

In order to sell their Bonds – they are now obliged to pay 23% interest and even at that – they are not getting many takers because the financial community knows that the end result will most likely be Default in Payment.

What a mess.

And until the West gets its financial House in Order – it will most certainly continue.

As will the Rise in Oil and Gold.

As I see it….

‘Galagher’

Lions Tigers and Bears–Oh My…

 

Though in our case, it should have been Alligators – Water Moccasins and Rattle Snakes.

For the past few weeks Anne and I have been vacationing in South Florida, on the cusp of the Everglades.

One fair day we decided to take an Air Boat Ride into the deepest darkest Glades.

With visions of the above critters racing through our minds, we doubled our Life Insurance and updated our Wills – then off we went.

We paid for an hour adventure and off we went with Billy-Bob (BB) our Guide.

We braced ourselves as BB twisted and turned and spun the craft in reckless abandon throughout the mighty swamp stopping at various strategic intervals to allow us to take in the sites.

After the third stop though I began to become suspicious that we were being ‘taken for a ride’ - so to speak.

At each stop – BB waxed elegant about the Flora – you know the unique trees and grasses and flowers that can be found within the Glades.

Okay I thought – what about the Man-Killing Reptiles –why were we talking about plants of all things – I was there to see these Killers.

So I asked Billy-Bob – “where the heck were they”?

“Not here” – he responded – the water was not fit for such animal life.

“Fish” – I asked?

“Not really” he replied – “only the odd bottom feeder”.

“Any Birds"?

“Not without Fish”.

So let me get this straight – we drove some distance and spent a considerable sum to take a ride through the renowned Everglades – to view plants!!

I was embarrassed – though Anne did not seem to mind. Chalk it up to the difference between men and women.

So I changed the topic with Billy-Bob, for no other reason than to move on from my disappointment.

“How do you keep from getting lost in here”? I asked.  “It all looks the same”.

BB responded by saying he has it memorized.

“How can you possibly memorize miles and miles of swamp”? I asked.

Honest to a fault, Billy-Bob allowed that we had simply been covering and recovering the same ground (swamp).  In fact, he told us, his company leases a rectangular piece of the Glades no longer than 1 /2 mile in length.

So once again I am crestfallen – here I had thought we had been let loose on miles and miles of untamed Swamp and now I find out we have been limited to a postage stamp size, well travelled and life devoid Parkette.

I was so glad to get back to civilization – back on the busy highways where true danger really lurks.

As I see it…

’Galagher’

The 2011 Election …Some Surprises …

 

Some Non-Surprises.

 

At this mid-way point in the Federal Election a few Surprises for me.

First, I am surprised that the Liberals have not collapsed more quickly under Ignatieff…. indeed, he has campaigned much better than I had expected. 

Second, the Bloc is not doing as well as I had thought. They will still take the majority of seats in Quebec but at this point their seat count from last time would be down and they would not be in a position to become the Official Opposition.

Third, the Green Party is in collapse and although I did not expect them to do a well as they did last time, I thought their base would hold up better than it has.

Now the Non-Surprises:

I expected that the NDP would rise over the course of the Election – at the expense of the Liberals and this has been happening.  This is likely to continue until Election Day and with the Regional Split in Votes – there may be a dead heat for second place between this 2 Parties when the dust settles.

What is clear at this point is that both Parties have a shot at becoming the Official Opposition.

The other Non-Surprise relates to the Tories – they started in the high 30s and they continue to enjoy (?) those numbers.  These numbers are not likely to fall since, for the most part, they consist of their base support.

If they do hold – or go even higher (which is possible), a Majority for the Tories is the most likely outcome on May 2nd.

(I will still make a prediction on the final tallies on or about Sunday, May 1, 2011).

As I see it ….

‘Galagher’

Behind the Scenes...to an Election Call

Virtually since the Last Election I have predicted a Spring 2011 Election - check my Blogs.





I am not a magician - I simply am getting long in the tooth.





A Minority Parliament's useful date usually expires after two and half years - combine that with the Best


Season to have an Election - Spring and Voila you have Spring 2011.





But let's take a behind the scenes look at why all 4 Parties wanted to go now beyond the fact that the House had reached its Best Before Date.





First though a Disclaimer.





I am not saying I believe what I think the various Parties appear to be believing, I am simply saying that this is what I think they are thinking. Indeed, in some cases I believe they are misjudging the situation but more on that in a later Blog(s).





The Tories.





It is not easy running a minority government - lots of irritations not the least of which is being unable to get into your real program. Prime Ministers stuck in such situations dream of the day that they will be able to pursue their objectives unfettered. This is especially the case with the current occupant of 24 Sussex, Stephen Harper who has been stuck in this situation for some 5 (long) years.





And right now he finds himself and his Party on the brink of forming a Majority Government.





Polls over the course of the last few months showed the Tories ranging between a low of 35 % and a high of 43% with the median number being around 39%.





With the way in which the 4 Parties are split - the Tories should easily be returned with Majority Status if that 39% Median holds.





So Harper offers a bit in the Budget with the knowledge that that bit will not be enough for the Opposition Parties thereby putting the onus on them for the Election Call.








The Liberals





They know that this Election can only come out poorly for them. But they have had enough cow towing and propping up the Tories.





Plus the Grits themselves have had enough with their Leader. They want to get on with the bloodletting and see Ignatiff on his way back to the good ole USA.





But Ignatiff too has had enough. He never expected Politics in Canada to be so tough. He has taken one knock after another - some I believe undeserved - but he has ended up making Stephan Dion look positively good.





Ignatiff I believe wants out in the worst way but he is too proud to quit before once going to the Polls so he is prepared to do just that. Go to the Polls and then get on with his life and I do not believe his time a Opposition Leader will stand out positively for him in his years to come.







The NDP





Now to Jack - he smells blood.





And it is not Tory Blood - he too understands that the Conservatives are most likely to come out victorious - probably a Majority or at least a Strong Minority.





No, the Blood he smells is Grit Blood.





Again, let's look at the recent Polls.





Over the last few months the Liberals have ranged from 23% to 28% with a median of 26 %.





The NDP has ranged from 13 % to 20 % with a median of 17%. He knows too that the Liberal vote is more widely dispersed than is the NDP vote. For instance, the Liberals will get more votes in the East, in Quebec and in Ontario than will Jack's group where they will be competing with the Tories and Bloc and in many cases coming out 2nd.





But the NDP will be strong in the major Cities and in the West and in Northern Ontario.





He also sees the Liberals being on the verge of a free fall; the Libs are going into the Election dispirited.





Simply put - Jack sees rank and file Liberals turning to his Party in the upcoming Election and even foresees winning more seats than the Grits.





Visions of Opposition Leader dance in his head.





But don't celebrate too soon Jack.








The Bloc





This Party stands to win as much or more than the Conservatives.





Recent polling puts them at 40 % or so in Quebec almost two times as high as their closest rival the Liberals at 22%.



If those numbers hold and I expect they will, you will see the Bloc returned with upwards of 55 seats of the 75 Quebec seats available.



In 1993 the Bloc won 54 seats in Quebec and became Canada's Official Opposition Party.



The same could happen this time too.



But whether it does or not - such an increase would put the Bloc in stronger command of Quebec and should their sister provincial party win in the next Quebec Election - look out.





So that's my read. I have not seen much if any of what I have written above in the main street media. But that's my best bet and I stand by it.



As I see it...



'Galagher'